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Irregular arbitrage periods

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Irregular arbitrage periods

Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:54 pm

For many years now I notice some irregular arbitrage periods during the season. During these periods, alert services are considered having poor performance and many of our members are complaining, experiencing low profitability and less arbitrage action, feeling that their time in front of the pc is hard. These are the periods when many arbers decide to try a 2nd or 3rd alert service that might work supplementary to the main one.
What are these periods?
1. Middle to end of October, some times extending to November.
2. End of February, beginning of March. This period might start when some championships start again after the winter break and might also coincide with the March Madness bonus period that was considered to be an excellent betting tradition of the past.
3. There is a 3rd period that affects value betting and not arbitrage. Arbitrage works perfectly but not value betting. Read some more about the end of season effect here: http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,4303.msg49619.html#msg49619

I discussed many times with very experienced players about periods 1 and 2, but we didn't manage to find a solid explanation. The 3rd period is something that needs to be further discovered.
Any views and opinions will be much appreciated.
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Re: Irregular arbitrage periods

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:15 pm

It is not possible to find a correlation between Value Betting and Arbitrage irregular periods. We notice some months when it is slow for both Value Betting and Arbitrage, while in some other months an action lags behind another. Maybe a combination of Value Betting and Arbing action might be possible, but the switching points are tough to find.
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Re: Irregular arbitrage periods

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:34 pm

I read carefully the ABVI as you post it month by month and I see your efforts to find turning points or switching points as you now say. You are chasing a Chimera Arbusers.
After all these years I m convinced that luck plays a role even in smart gambling and there is nothing you can do to eliminate it completely. Some smart gambling techniques include more luck factor than others.
Value Betting even based on correct mathematic models it includes a lot of luck. Bot Value Betting reduces the role of luck but doesn't eliminate it completely. Even bots can have negative or neutral months.
There is an old sad song saying...

The gods may throw a dice
Their minds as cold as ice
It's simple and it's plain
Why should I complain

A perfectly described plain.
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Re: Irregular arbitrage periods

Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:58 pm

The luck factor is always there as you say. We just try to reduce it as more as we can. This is a constant pursuit. Imagine siding with all these people who believe that gambling is...gambling. We would never find arbitrage and we would be like the rest 98%. It is the pursuit to reduce the luck factor that brought us in arbing and then all the other ways of smart gambling.
We are not searching in vain.
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Re: Irregular arbitrage periods

Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:01 pm

Are the irregular periods considered for pre-match arbing or live arbing also?
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Re: Irregular arbitrage periods

Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:22 am

MrG wrote: Are the irregular periods considered for pre-match arbing or live arbing also?
It is for pre-game action. Live action is another thing that follows different norms obviously.

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