Hi guys, this is my first post/thread, but i read you all from a long time.
I have an opinion, but want to know if it is really good or just a spent of time.
So here we are, I'm Italian, and a lot of bookmaker offers acca refund if 1 leg lose... most of them are at least bets with 3/4 leg and odds at least 1,40...
My idea was: what happen if i try to mix this offers with value bet?
Well i done an analysis... and the result are extremely good... maybe , we should pay attention on variance but let me do an example:
Tennis Quote for 3 legs bookmaker A vs PINNACLE:
1,6 - 1.55
1,45 - 1.4
1,45 - 1.4
I know that this aren't really Value Bet, but they are the nearest that i can find...
lets do maths... and the probability are this: (0 LOSE, 1 WIN):
000 0,0289664
001 0,072416063
010 0,072416063
011 0,181040158
100 0,052666228
101 0,131665569
110 0,131665569
111 0,329163924
So, as says up, we have refunds of 50% if only one leg loose...
if you do the other maths, you should see that on the papier there is a complessive edge of 65%...
What do you think about to play hundred of treble and let them just go?
Thanks
And sorry for the long thread and the bad english.
Pavel
Value Bet and Acca's refund
Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
- okakabukaka
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Re: Value Bet and Acca's refund
Sat Jul 15, 2017 6:44 pm
what a good first post. hope someone will help you
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