# Number of picks and edge

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 Author Topic: Number of picks and edge  (Read 378 times)
AlexNotman1
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« on: July 16, 2017, 12:12:38 AM »

I've been trying to calculate something since a while and I've got no idea how to do this. Quite few math experts
here so I hope someone would be able to sort this out for me

Let's say I take 1.3 odds only. Let's say bookie comission is 5% and bookie is considered as sharp so odds reflect true probability. How many bets I need to place to make sure I've got an edge and it's not an coincidence that I make a profit? Any calculations or suggestions welcome.
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okakabukaka
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2017, 12:37:08 AM »

in this scenario you will lose money not making it.
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AlexNotman1
Newbie

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Posts: 81

« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2017, 12:50:54 AM »

I guess there was a mistake in question. Im gonna correct it then: we don't know if odds reflect true probability. So how many bets needs to be placed to make sure I've got edge?
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dealer wins
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Posts: 516

« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2017, 09:42:03 AM »

I've been trying to calculate something since a while and I've got no idea how to do this. Quite few math experts
here so I hope someone would be able to sort this out for me

Let's say I take 1.3 odds only. Let's say bookie comission is 5% and bookie is considered as sharp so odds reflect true probability. How many bets I need to place to make sure I've got an edge and it's not an coincidence that I make a profit? Any calculations or suggestions welcome.

In this scenario if the odds reflect the true possibility, you will lose 5% in commission on every winning bet.

EG: Say you bet £1, 130 times at true probability odds of 1.3, you will win 30p 100 times = £30, and lose £1 30 times -£30.  But you will pay 5% commission on the winning £30 of £1.50.

So for every £130 wagered the expected return would be £128.50.
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Never trust a goose!!!
Alfa1234
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Posts: 641

« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2017, 10:08:20 AM »

I think he is asking because he "thinks" he has found a way to beat an exchange or sharp bookie by placing regular bets.

Basically, if your odd is 1.3 you have a 77% probability of winning that bet if the odds reflect the true probability.  After 100 bets, you have a 95% probability of being within 2 standard deviations of the "normal" outcome meaning you'd win between 69.3% and 84.7% of your bets 95% of the time.

Calculating this correctly however, is impossible if you do not know the "true" probability...and you said that odd does not reflect it.

If you think you have an edge at an exchange or sharp bookie...you'd need well over 10k bets to rule out simple luck completely at those odds.

Forget it.
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