Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?

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bm1125
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Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« on: August 27, 2017, 07:40:43 PM »

What I wonder is if there's anyone out there who managed to do value betting over time (I mean like long periods - year or more)? I mean as far as I know at the end of the day the bookmakers are just like casinos. And so if they see someone who manage to make profit over long periods (even if it isn't that big), my guess is that they will close their account due to "suspicious activity" or some other bs.

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AlexNotman1
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2017, 07:01:23 AM »

No, it's definitely impossible. Value betting is a fairy tale like tooth fairy.
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nicmali
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2017, 08:31:41 AM »

i try it but i lost money
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dealer wins
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2017, 10:08:41 AM »

I know value betting over the long term would produce more profits, even just by saving exchange commission, but I havnt got the head for having a day/week/month or even longer of losses.

Sometimes my betfair can go on a big 5 figure winning run and I couldn't cope with that sort of negative bankroll variance without going bald and taking 10 years off my life expectancy.

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Arbusers
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2017, 10:14:46 AM »

I know value betting over the long term would produce more profits, even just by saving exchange commission, but I havnt got the head for having a day/week/month or even longer of losses.

Sometimes my betfair can go on a big 5 figure winning run and I couldn't cope with that sort of negative bankroll variance without going bald and taking 10 years off my life expectancy.

This is good thinking.
Maybe it could worth it if someone could do it in an industrial level accepting small money from everyone (money afford to lose, allowing to sleep at night) and then treat this thing as a mutual fund where everyone gets paid according to his shares. On the other hand this could go easily bust.
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bm1125
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2017, 10:30:52 AM »

No, it's definitely impossible. Value betting is a fairy tale like tooth fairy.

Wow, you have really enriched the discussion.
Please refrain from making any more useless comments.

I know value betting over the long term would produce more profits, even just by saving exchange commission, but I havnt got the head for having a day/week/month or even longer of losses.

Sometimes my betfair can go on a big 5 figure winning run and I couldn't cope with that sort of negative bankroll variance without going bald and taking 10 years off my life expectancy.

Yes, after backtesting it using previous seasons data I can see it is a very bumpy ride. I can see in my simulations that bankroll may go from 1500 to ~400 after a succession of losses (and that's even after starting with 1000).

Anyway, back to the topic, my question isn't about the method but about the bookies. do they close accounts that manage to profit in the long run?

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AnnaPrentice
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2017, 11:17:51 AM »

No its not good thinking.

The problem is that with that way of thinking, you havent realized that the problem lies with yourself who's just not good enough finding enough valuebets . There are thousands of valuebets everyday, and on weekends and weekdays thats a big fixture day in UK soccer, you should be able to get a few hundred bets in.

If you only bet odds lower than say 3 with that kind of output you will experience minimal variance.

Another hint. Books that limit your account already can still be useful.
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Arbusers
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2017, 11:21:49 AM »

What I wonder is if there's anyone out there who managed to do value betting over time (I mean like long periods - year or more)? I mean as far as I know at the end of the day the bookmakers are just like casinos. And so if they see someone who manage to make profit over long periods (even if it isn't that big), my guess is that they will close their account due to "suspicious activity" or some other bs.

If you make the appropriate search in the forum, you will find people who are practising value betting. Many people switched to value betting from arbitrage these last years. I understand that most of them are not willing to share their knowledge.
Bookmakers will do anything within their powers not to lose money and they will limit all winning accounts no matter if they trade, arb, or value bet. But in the case of value betting it is very rare that someone would go to the max stake and most probably, even after limitations there is still plenty of manoeuvring space. This is with the exception of Mickey Mouse books like Interwetten and alikes. Let me mention an example that we see every day. Bet365 is limiting accounts to 1% of their initial capacity. Even like this, you have a lot of profit to make with them.
Hope that helped.
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Arbusers
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2017, 11:26:13 AM »

Another important aspect of value betting is to find the modus operandi that suits you best. Here is a way that many people operate, most of the value betting bots around are using the same tactic.
They compare odds with Pinnacle and when they see an arb of say 1%+ they place the bet in the soft side. There are other more sophisticated filters that you could think of.
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bm1125
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2017, 12:12:27 PM »

Thanks a lot to both of you! I look up on the forum for more info  :)

Just one more question, how's accurate are football-data.co.uk historical odds? Most academic papers I have read rely on them but still thought maybe there's any other service with historical data (don't care to pay)?
« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 12:16:38 PM by bm1125 » Logged
Arbusers
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2017, 12:20:59 PM »

Thanks a lot to both of you! I look up on the forum for more info  :)

Just one more question, how's accurate are football-data.co.uk historical odds? Most academic papers I have read rely on them but still thought maybe there's any other service with historical data (don't care to pay)?

I have never heard of this website before so I cant answer to your question. I know that you can find big data in ODDS4STATS. It is envied by many high street bookmakers.
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nicmali
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2017, 01:18:52 PM »

football-data.co.uk My frend made a matematical modul with this data. In http://www.tennis-data.co.uk/ they are closing odds.  I think from socer they are odds one hour before the kick off
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bm1125
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2017, 02:17:40 PM »

They do have a special column for pinnacle closing odds (one hour to kick off) but basically they state that their odds are taken twice a week, Tuesday and Friday afternoon for midweek and weekend matches (respectively).

Thanks a lot to both of you! I look up on the forum for more info  :)

Just one more question, how's accurate are football-data.co.uk historical odds? Most academic papers I have read rely on them but still thought maybe there's any other service with historical data (don't care to pay)?

I have never heard of this website before so I cant answer to your question. I know that you can find big data in ODDS4STATS. It is envied by many high street bookmakers.

Thanks buddy!
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Chipmunk
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Re: Is it possible to do value betting at european bookies?
« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2017, 01:18:37 PM »

For a proper backtest you'll probably want a full pinnacle odds history, from openers to closers.

ideally you want to have a history of limits too - you might find some nice value, but it's not worth very much of it's an opener with max $100.
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