math problem risk free bet

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maletaja
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maletaja

math problem risk free bet
« on: August 31, 2017, 04:04:39 PM »

Lets say we have 10$ risk free bet. Which odds should we take to maximase EV?Should bet payout infinitive  infinitve?
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AceJack
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AceJack

Re: math problem risk free bet
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2017, 06:36:48 AM »

as high as possible is my experience:

sample Bet 1:   SNR: Odd 8,0 @ 10 USD , and lay 9,0 in odds with 2% rake at some site Will give 76,39% retention rate 7,64 net Profit

Sample Bet2 : SNR Odd 3,0 @ 10 USD , Lay 3,4 - Retention rate 5,8 - Net 5,8

Sample0 SNR Odd 25,0 @ 10 USD , and lay 26 : retetion rate = 90,53
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risilloch
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risilloch

Re: math problem risk free bet
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2017, 02:39:21 PM »

Lets say we have 10$ risk free bet. Which odds should we take to maximase EV?Should bet payout infinitive  infinitve?

You are correct the theoretical optimum odds to maximise the value of a freebet is infinity.
(but if you could find one of those you would bet it free bet or not!).

I also suspect using a free bet on a high odds bet is a red flag.
For a $10 freebet it is simply not worth it to risk burning your account
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AceJack
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AceJack

Re: math problem risk free bet
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2017, 04:32:23 PM »

i've had no problem betting these high odds - you just look like a fool like the rest :)

every punter loves to bet on underdogs and or multiples to get high odds so betting the underdog with a free bet shouldn't be a problem ...
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NedlogViiibes
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NedlogViiibes

Re: math problem risk free bet
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2017, 05:05:43 PM »

i've had no problem betting these high odds - you just look like a fool like the rest :)

every punter loves to bet on underdogs and or multiples to get high odds so betting the underdog with a free bet shouldn't be a problem ...

Really? I'd say most punters love to bet multiples with favorites. They bet on what they expect to happen, not taking into account the actual odds and probabilities.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 05:07:19 PM by NedlogViiibes » Logged
AceJack
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AceJack

Re: math problem risk free bet
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2017, 07:58:10 PM »

yea you are right ., but I guess maybe they take the underdogs when they are tilting and steaming :)
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Gamblers Ruin
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Gamblers Ruin

Re: math problem risk free bet
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2017, 01:31:04 PM »

as high as possible is my experience:

sample Bet 1:   SNR: Odd 8,0 @ 10 USD , and lay 9,0 in odds with 2% rake at some site Will give 76,39% retention rate 7,64 net Profit

Sample Bet2 : SNR Odd 3,0 @ 10 USD , Lay 3,4 - Retention rate 5,8 - Net 5,8

Sample0 SNR Odd 25,0 @ 10 USD , and lay 26 : retetion rate = 90,53

Did you find those odds examples or make them up? The last one has the best overround before we even start. If you give the same -1.3% negative arb as sample bet 1, you retain only 6.14

My rule of thumb, if you're betting on negative arbs just to use the freebet, stick to 5/1 - 10/1 and you can't go far wrong. But as correctly mentioned above, if you can hit a +ve arb, go as high as possible (and then bet on it with other money too).
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