Valuebetting with tipsters (page 2)

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smartbet.io
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smartbet.io

Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2017, 03:06:12 PM »

It is very hard to be able to consistently beat a reasonably liquid and responsive market with 3-5% at least by following tipsters. By responsive I mean markets that reflect and adapt instantly to money weight.

These kinds of returns would only be achievable in either early low liquidity markets or in soft books. The problem is that in these markets you may have a bigger yield but it is difficult to generate meaningful turnover.

Tipsters should thus be judged also by the liquidity of the markets that they usually tip in, which also affects the prices that can be achieved when a user is following a popular tipster with many other followers. If pinnacle is prepared to lay 1000 EUR on certain odds and ten smartbet.io bots hit this line with millisecs of difference between them for 500 EUR each, it does not mean that all of them will get the asked odds just because they placed the order at the same moment. Pinnacle's odds adjusting algorithm will work the same. So, competition will also affect your results, something that it is not obvious by just examining tipster records.
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naza
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2017, 04:22:48 PM »

There are some posts which have been deleted in this topic right ?

I remembered to have read a post of a member explaining his experience following tipster
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Arbusers
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2017, 07:22:34 PM »

There are some posts which have been deleted in this topic right ?

I remembered to have read a post of a member explaining his experience following tipster

I detected an effort to advertise some tipping services. I contacted the member that stated this effort and advised him to start a new topic under the ''Tipsters'' board. This thread has another orientation and it should stay like this.
Thank you.
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naza
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2017, 05:57:47 PM »

@Arbusers: ok, thank you for your answer !


By the way, I have found few blogs which are sharing their experience value betting by following tipsters. And they are all doing it successfully. It proves that this activity can brings consistant revenues !

Daily25.com
Tradegrind.com
Betting.Samuelericson
Parieur-pro (in french)
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BettingIsCool
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2017, 04:16:12 PM »

Hello guys,

Apologies for duplicating my post from a different thread, but I think it‘s also very valid for this thread.

The most reliable way to evaluate a tipster is by comparing the advised prices to pinnacle's closing line. In the betting industry this is widely known as beating the closing line and every professional bettor will tell you this is THE most and in almost all cases the ONLY important factor when it comes to deciding whether to follow a tipster or not. The problem with traditional tipster platforms like blogabet, pyckio,.. is that they all suffer from survivorship bias, so it's useless to look at the raw performance (p/l, roi, sample size, etc.). I have been in contact with pyckio requesting the addition of closing prices in the tipster stats. They declined for obvious reasons.

I have written an article on this that you might like: https://bettingiscool.com/2016/12/27/how-good-is-a-betting-tipster/

You can also find more articles on this matter on my smart bet.io blog: https://smartbet.io/-bets4value

Hope that helps.
Chris
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BettingIsCool
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2017, 04:20:54 PM »

I should maybe also mention that I have done a study on the closing line performance of all ‚pro‘ tipsters on pyckio which reveals their true skills.

As I don’t want to upset neither pyckio nor any individual tipster I have decided to not make the study available for public, but if you are interested in the results please pm me...
« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 05:01:02 PM by BettingIsCool » Logged
Chipmunk
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #21 on: November 28, 2017, 05:41:53 PM »

I should maybe also mention that I have done a study on the closing line performance of all ‚pro‘ tipsters on pyckio which reveals their true skills.

As I don’t want to upset neither pyckio nor any individual tipster I have decided to not make the study available for public, but if you are interested in the results please pm me...


Think I could guess :-)

Tipsters with a genuine edge almost never sell their tips - instead they expand their bankroll to take all market value themselves.
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BettingIsCool
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #22 on: November 28, 2017, 05:44:13 PM »

That is indeed the case: An edge shared is an edge halved!
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maletaja
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2017, 07:12:29 PM »

Quote
Think I could guess :-)

Tipsters with a genuine edge almost never sell their tips - instead they expand their bankroll to take all market value themselves.
Only point is to sell or share, is when u dont have enough capacity to move lines significantly. Im talking about soft sides
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Niklaus
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2017, 11:08:52 PM »

Let me guess...You will resell this information to us?



I should maybe also mention that I have done a study on the closing line performance of all ‚pro‘ tipsters on pyckio which reveals their true skills.

As I don’t want to upset neither pyckio nor any individual tipster I have decided to not make the study available for public, but if you are interested in the results please pm me...


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BettingIsCool
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2017, 12:55:19 AM »

I'm not selling anything.

The whole purpose was to show statistical evidence of survivorship-bias on tipster-platforms, which has been proven by this study. Everyone who's interested can have the list for free I will just not publish the list on an open forum for mentioned reasons...
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 01:02:47 AM by BettingIsCool » Logged
Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2017, 08:30:06 AM »

Survivorship bias is underrated. My account is the top ranked tipster on a tipster-rating website (not the biggest, but a few thousand active members) ...but I also have many accounts with terrible records that I haven't logged onto for some time...
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Chipmunk
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2017, 01:01:05 PM »

Survivorship bias is underrated. My account is the top ranked tipster on a tipster-rating website (not the biggest, but a few thousand active members) ...but I also have many accounts with terrible records that I haven't logged onto for some time...

Yep. You create multiple tipping records via coin-flipping, one will turn out good, you then sell it. This method is 50 years old or more.
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BettingIsCool
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Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2017, 01:09:09 PM »

Yep. You create multiple tipping records via coin-flipping, one will turn out good, you then sell it. This method is 50 years old or more.

And yet 99% of all punters still fall for it...
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 01:10:40 PM by BettingIsCool » Logged
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