Value betting the NBA this season (page 2)

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bankster
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bankster

Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2017, 09:39:43 PM »

This is the dumbest post i ve ever seen in a betting forum

Do you have anything to debate or are you here just to produce noise?
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straili
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2017, 07:14:20 AM »

I really dont have the courage to confront all these people who believe in myths

I think I already answered. I will not come back to this thread.
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Trevorr
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2017, 08:33:35 AM »

I don't understand why you assume Pinn has true odds. Of course if Pin has 2 and you can find 2,2 somewhere it is a good bet. But if you can find like 2,07 there maybe no value. People just move odds by money, if someone like some bets it can move odds no matter where true is. People are herd.
I know a guy who made fortune betting on Pin, it wouldn't be possible if Pin had right odds.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2017, 09:51:41 AM »

Trevor, of course there is value to be found on Pinnacle.

I don't think you get it completely...Pinnacle opens a line and the "weight of money", meaning the bets of thousands of people, make the line correct.  It means that line has the opinion of those thousands of people weighed in it.  That also means a bunch of people got value from betting on that line before it came to a "correct" closing line (you can still beat the Pinnacle closing line if you bet an odd before that line dropped, right?).  The entire concept of Pinnacle, Betfair etc is built upon a liquid market, like a stock market.  If there are thousands of people betting a line it has a tremendous amount of money (and thus opinions) built into it.  That means, in general, that the closing line is correct.  Does that mean it's 100% correct for every big game?  Absolutely not, but the point is that on average, it will be.  If you take the Pinnacle closing line from 100k games and compare it to the game result, you'll notice it is correct on average. 

Would it be impossible to make money betting only the closing line?  No...but it would be extremely difficult as you would have to bet only those lines that still have value at closing...that's almost impossible to know and it would be extremely difficult to calculate that consistently.
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MisterRodriguez
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2017, 07:26:17 PM »

Great Post again by alfa

Yes you can be profitable at the closer but the lprofitablitiy likelyhood of one indivual bettor who is competing against bettins syndicates an hour before game time is slim to one

If you bet on the top leagues off course

If you bet on Greece one hour before game time now thats another scenario

If you bet on Brazilian Basketball thats the extreme side of the spectrum


You can choose whatever you want i terms of the likelyhood of beating the closing line before game time but the more money you want to earn the more difficult it will be
The secret in my opinion is to choose a sweet spot like Colombian league,or Spanish Basketball where the limits can put food on the table but are not high enough to attracte syndicates
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turbobets
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2017, 10:48:39 PM »

I think what straili is saying is that some advanced bettors can identify when the sharp money has been bet and the major line movements have taken place whether that be a minute, hour or day before the match. I have been betting for years but have not studied line movements enough to risk betting to far from the start of a match except in obvious situations like injuries or following steam.
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straili
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straili

Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #21 on: November 26, 2017, 07:31:04 AM »

You got it right turbobets.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2017, 09:48:39 AM »

The closing line is a weighted opinion of everyone just prior to game start as thouroughly described by alfa. It seems that beating the closing line is the primary aim of many strategies here. Instead of beating the closing line in more than 9/10 of the time with very small margins, I will much rather prefer to beat the closing line only 2/3 of the time but with a very big margin. So prioritizing high edges, instead of consistently beating the closing line. It is possible to achieve high edges betting (exploiting) early odds that are significantly higher than the general opinion of the true odds level, when the market is still slow to react. Stake sizes cannot be thousands of $/€ but still substantial amounts for regular people.

I can imagine that betting syndicates would prefer the latter case too, as this would be more profitable, but due to limited liquidity in early markets they are unable to bet their large amounts. So they are left with betting small edges on exchanges/Asians close to game start, which should still be very profitable when stake sizes are very large.

Compare these two quotes:

If you manage to be accurate at 85-90% of your shots, you have the luxury to fail to 15-20% while still keeping more value that closing odds.

The only discussion is, what the odds are of a line moving against you or moving in your favour if you place the bet a long time before the game starts.  I'd argue the odds are probably 50/50...as there is no way to predic the line movement.  My personal experience is, once there's a big line movement, the line more often than not continues a bit longer in the direction of the move, giving you bigger value than you initially thought.  I have no evidence or stats of this though.

The quotes complement each other. A 50/50 probability of odds moving in your favour or against you, may indeed result in a 85-90% hit rate (or at least significantly higher than 50 %) in terms of beating the closing line, when your initial edge is high. When odds move against you 50 % of the time, they will only sometimes move so much that you lose your entire initial edge and don’t beat the closing line. As for the odds that move IN your favor, you will of course get even higher edges 50 % of the time.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2017, 10:00:04 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
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