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Value betting using Pinnacle

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Kosmas89
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Value betting using Pinnacle

Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:56 am

Hi guys, so far I thought that value betting ("using" pinnacle) is to find an arb and just don't cover the pinnacle part.  i.e.  a two way game, with odds in pinnacle 1.81- 2.137  (2% juice)
and you find in a soft 2.35 odds (instead of 2.137)  so the set of odds is now 2.35 (soft) and pinnacle 1.81  = 2.25 % arb .  so this 2.35 is a great value bet ...

My question is if a soft book has better odds in a particular event/bet than pinnacle but there is not an arb with these odds. i.e same odds like above, 2-way game 2.137 - 1.81 pinnacle odds with 2% juice. and one soft book offers the first bet (2.137) with odds 2.20 .  if you try to arbitrage 2.2 and 1.81  you will have  -0,7% arb BUT what will happen if you play 2.20 alone (2.137 in pinnacle) ? Is this considered a value bet or not?  And stays under the radar or not.
testez
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Re: value betting using pinnacle

Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:19 pm

if you take as true the general accepted concept that you have to beat the pinny(sharp) closing line(+margins) to make profit on the long run,

you are correct. it doesnt have to be an arb for that odd to have value. value doesnt come from the arb itself but from the difference between the the odds(ie 2.137 and soft odd)
Kosmas89
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Re: value betting using pinnacle

Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:23 pm

thanks for the answer, so, this kind of value betting  stays under  soft radar or not? 
testez
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Re: value betting using pinnacle

Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:35 pm

i dont think so..

the only pro/con i see thats important is that you can raise your volume by a lot(compared to arb version) but ur return will be lower. ofc you can play with the numbers and add some margins to the odds you would like to take..
i think it all depends on your experience and BM. Even with the arb version, variance can be tough. going this route it could be way tougher.
Kosmas89
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Re: value betting using pinnacle

Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:09 pm

thanks for the advice , but im not gonna do something like that, i was curious for my own reasons , if you bet something 1.75 when pinny have the same bet 1.72  or even lower 1.70 , if this considered value betting by the community and if it stays under bookmaker radar.
Im not gonna do it  any time soon, so i dont care about the possibly results  :)
testez
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Re: value betting using pinnacle

Fri Jan 06, 2023 4:01 pm

you know, for bonuses, people use -%arbs to clear the required rollovers.
and negatives arbes are exactely what you are saying
Alfa1234
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Re: value betting using pinnacle

Sat Jan 07, 2023 4:18 pm

You should read the forum, this has been explained many times.

If you bet on an odd of 1.75 and Pinnacle has 1.72...why would this be a value bet?  If Pinnacle has a margin of 5%, you are not betting value at all.

You have to add the Pinnacle margin/juice to calculate the real odd/probability first before you consider an odd to have value.

Let's say Pinnacle has 2 tennis players of a match priced at 1.909.  Both have a 50% probability of winning the game.  Does an odd of 1.99 at a soft book have value?  No!  Of course not.  For it to have value, you would have to find an odd over 2.0 because you will only win that bet half the time.  If you find an odd of 2.05 in a soft, it's not an arb but it does hold value.  You'll still get flagged and banned eventually though.
Kosmas89
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Re: value betting using pinnacle

Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:32 pm

yeah i pretty much talk about negative arbs, but all the soft bookmaker see is that i bet something with same or better odds vs pinnacle, does that make them suspicious? Thats the important question from me
The part about if this is value betting is clear for me now, thanks
Malteser
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Re: value betting using pinnacle

Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:22 am

It's still liable to get your account shut down, but maybe not quite as fast compared to when there is an actual arb opportunity available.

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