Realistic expectations

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parker
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Realistic expectations
« on: August 01, 2012, 03:28:02 PM »

Dear all,

when I first started reading about arbitrage trading, I thought I found the holy grail of internet money making. Then I kept reading and got depressed because of stories of limiting bookies, cancelled accounts etc. A few days ago I was bored and started reading again, betting some small arbs. I've read stories of people claiming arbing is dead because they can't bet millions of dollars in a week. Others are having trouble betting more than 50$/arb.

Now, before I continue my arbing adventure, I would like to get some more long term opinions. I'm not interested in forecasts for million dollar players (since I'll probably never reach that level), however, I am wondering if the following scenario is realistic.

1) At the moment, I have 2500 eur I am willing to spend. I am not planning on withdrawing any money, but to let it just grow while arbing.
2) Next to that, I can afford to pay up to 200 eur/month for software/subscriptions/any other things that might be usefull.
3) I was planning for a 10% monthly return. This would mean that in 3 years, I would be making +- 7500 eur/month profit. From that moment on, I would redraw my profits every month.
4) I can spend 2 hours arbing, however, I have access to a computer all the time and can split up these 2 hours any time I like.
5) I have one identity, and I want to keep it that way.

I would highly value any opinion. I read a lot of topics, but none of them settled my complete curiosity. Obiously, I don't care of it would take 3.5 months or I would make 7000 instead of 7500. These are just some ballpark figures to evaluate if arbing might be suitable for me, or that I need to adjust my expectations.

Thank you,
Parker
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ajeto
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Re: Realistic expectations
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2012, 04:45:16 PM »

I think it is not realistic. You ll meet many problems with arbing, you ll be limited at all soft bookies and your profits will go down. 2 hours of work a day is not enough too. If you only use 1 identity in one year you only have sharp bookies to arb between them and here the arbing becomes tricky. Majority try to run new ID at this point, cos they cant go on. Keep it in mind. If you are very intelligent and develop your own skills you ll be able to make it maybe. But with smaller profits than you ve mentioned and of course you ll need to spend more working hours on it.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2012, 04:48:28 PM by ajeto » Logged
ajeto
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Re: Realistic expectations
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2012, 05:06:07 PM »

Another point 2500 is not enough to arb. With 2500 expect to make  200-300 profit per month, you pay 200 for your service and you ll stay with 50 clean profit. 50 € for 60 hours of arbing per month. Not worth.
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parker
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Re: Realistic expectations
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2012, 05:27:52 PM »

Another point 2500 is not enough to arb. With 2500 expect to make  200-300 profit per month, you pay 200 for your service and you ll stay with 50 clean profit. 50 € for 60 hours of arbing per month. Not worth.

Yes, that is correct. However, the 200-300 I make will stay in the account and thus increasing the total bankroll. I will pay the 200 for the service from a different account. In the beginning it will not be worth it, that is correct. I consider it an investment to learn more about arbing. The 200 - 300 profit from 2500 does equal +- 10%, so that would be according "to plan"
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parker
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Re: Realistic expectations
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2012, 05:29:52 PM »

I think it is not realistic. You ll meet many problems with arbing, you ll be limited at all soft bookies and your profits will go down. 2 hours of work a day is not enough too. If you only use 1 identity in one year you only have sharp bookies to arb between them and here the arbing becomes tricky. Majority try to run new ID at this point, cos they cant go on. Keep it in mind. If you are very intelligent and develop your own skills you ll be able to make it maybe. But with smaller profits than you ve mentioned and of course you ll need to spend more working hours on it.

Thank you for mentioning this. I have read similar experiences on other websites as well. What is unclear to me however: why it is so hard to work with only sharp bookies ? Do the arbs not generate enough money (like < 0.5%), or are there simply almost no arbs available at these bookies ?
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ajeto
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Re: Realistic expectations
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2012, 05:49:51 PM »

Sharp bookies move lines (odds) very fast. You ll find problem to place a bet in time. All World is waiting for those arbs. More experienced arbers than you, arbers with own software.... Arbs are gone in few seconds. When a service shows the arb out, you re already late.
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Arbusers
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Re: Realistic expectations
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2012, 09:45:00 PM »

Hi parker, and welcome on board.

1. Your bankroll must be much bigger if you want a decent profit.
2. 200 is too much. Almost all alert services will offer you a better price.
3. Your 10% target is correct, but when you get more experienced you will have a 13%-16% ROI per month, under specific circumstances.
4. 2 hours? No way, you need far more. Weekends will require more hours, and also Uefa and CL nights.
5. Ok. You have to be very smart to keep it like this.
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Arbusers
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Re: Realistic expectations
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2012, 08:44:03 AM »

First of all, sorry for the late reply, but the Greek summer is long.
People that use only their id, face a huge problem.
Their id is ''burned'' exactly when the owner becomes experienced. When your id is limited, your horizons and your chances to make some extra money will be limited also.
However, even with a limited id, you can make some affiliate deals.
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