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Live-arbing or future arbing?

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psychoarber
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psychoarber

Live-arbing or future arbing?
« on: October 06, 2012, 02:12:07 PM »

The conversation about live arbing and the available services there are. i tested oddstorm 2 months ago for in play events for a short period. It was something like a promo. They are covering only football events. I wil describe my impressions.
First of all the bookie's odds changes is nothing comparing the normal arbing. Asian bookies ,and european bookies changes the odds every 3-4 seconds according the evolution of the game. That created a problem to me because in only 4-5 seconds I had to find the game the concrete odds to check that both odds are existing and to place the bets before they change. Most of the times european bookies was reacting sooo fast that when I decided to place the arb , I had a negative arb, had no option I was taking my ''negative gain'' and continue to the next.Imagine what was happening when in 3-4 in the row arbs , placing 300-500 euros my total was -20-50 , yes it is minus twenty till 50 euros.

Futhermore the formulas wasnt the easy under/over 2,5 or 1- EH(+1) @ 2. There are multiple formulas with 3 or 4 odds and 3-4 bookies sometimes involved at the arb , so I was totally need almost 40-50 seconds to complete the arb. I have to select to place first the bet at the bookie that first will decrease the odd (most of the times at the underdog) so till I place the bet at the asian bookie that favorite was suceeeding a goal and my 500 euros bet was lefting by my pocket for ever. At in play events asian bookies have different rules than the european bookies. At a european bookie it is needed 7-8 seconds at the most to place the bet, at the asians in order a bet to be accepted it is needed to change possesion or a goal kick or a throw-in to exist.

My huge dissapointment was when a couple of bets was voided by the european bookies (for no reason in my opinion) for wrong placed odd by the trader (bullshit they didnt want to pay) This cost me more than 1000 euros included the theoritical gain of the arb.
Finally I observed that many formulas at this site are wrong especially rught after a goal. So under a certain condition maybe you should loose all the placed bets at both sides. For example when the score is 1-0 many times the system gives the followin arb Ah(-0,5)@1 - Eh(+1)2 , If the score stay 1-0 you loose all the bets
Ending my writings I think that oddstorm is maybe a good tool for very experienced arbers that they have 3-4 seconds to decide if the formula is right anf of course to catch the big odds. But there is always the risk of the other side goal or even worst the the cancellation of the bet by the european bookie.
I prefer to arb at future events....
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ajeto
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ajeto

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 03:36:15 PM »

Nice that you share, but I am sure there are many live-arbers (gamblers-traders) who earn a lot with live arbing.
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psychoarber
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psychoarber

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 04:14:27 PM »

I forgot to mention something important too. The accounts I placed so big bets was limited after a week at very low maximum stake. But this situation is very common for the society of the arbers.
@ ajeto. If you avoid all the above factors I described then like the normal arbing you get the profit according the amount is placed. But it is nothing like no risk arbing.You are accepting your fate...
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ajeto
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ajeto

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2012, 04:26:38 PM »

I agree no risk arbing or no risk live arbing don't exist. But there is also no risk free business. Even when you re on the road there is a risk. No risk life doesn't exist.
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palindon
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palindon

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2013, 07:19:13 AM »

hi psychoarber is correct, i am sure you cannot do arbing on " live bets ' , while i have not tried to have a live bet program written i have with racing. we were finding arbs ok but they were " gone " in a matter of seconds , because racing arbs would only be possible as back/lay, possibly it is the betfair and betdaq traders with their bet angel etc  programs that bring about this situation.  palindon ;)
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MUCHBET
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MUCHBET

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2013, 01:01:28 PM »

For me a big problem in live-arbing is the pending-time - it has happened so many times already especially betting on O/U for next goal in Halftime, that usually the OVER is placed at Asian Bookies - AND - those do have pending times - that cost me thousands and thousands already :(
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fnatic91
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fnatic91

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2013, 01:54:36 PM »

the same here ... has happened to me approx. 50 times in 8 months , so 50 * 100 EUR = 5,000 EUR gone due to pending time
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kapetan1122
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kapetan1122

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2013, 08:40:32 PM »

Hy i must say that i start with live arbing few weeks ago and didnt have any problems with it.I am not a normal arber like all of you here,i was only live betting before and i was finding a value bets that i bet on but like everywhere if you win constantly your account get limited very fast so i decide to try live arbing because i saw lot of opportunities before but i almost never want to bother with it and reason why i decide to do it was that all bookmakers cut my account very fast with my betting patterns.I dont understand how most of you loose money with it,it happen only one time that i loose money because goal was scored just after i place first bet but that was all.I almost always play u/o on football or ice hockey.You should ALWAYS first bet UNDER on one book because as game progress under ll always get smaller odds and over ll sometimes be even higher till your UNDER bet get accepted.Again i am not happy with this because books again limit my accounts faster than i was thinking off and money i earn is not so high.
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SurebetMonitor
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SurebetMonitor

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2013, 08:40:40 AM »

Hy i must say that i start with live arbing few weeks ago and didnt have any problems with it.I am not a normal arber like all of you here,i was only live betting before and i was finding a value bets that i bet on but like everywhere if you win constantly your account get limited very fast so i decide to try live arbing because i saw lot of opportunities before but i almost never want to bother with it and reason why i decide to do it was that all bookmakers cut my account very fast with my betting patterns.I dont understand how most of you loose money with it,it happen only one time that i loose money because goal was scored just after i place first bet but that was all.I almost always play u/o on football or ice hockey.You should ALWAYS first bet UNDER on one book because as game progress under ll always get smaller odds and over ll sometimes be even higher till your UNDER bet get accepted.Again i am not happy with this because books again limit my accounts faster than i was thinking off and money i earn is not so high.

And what if you start with the under and before you place the "over" bet the goal is scored? If you are betting on football game and provided you need 30 seconds to complete betting this will happen lets say 1 out of 50 times, sometimes even more frequent.

Actually more safe is to start with the over bet in my eyes, not to lose the bankroll.
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fnatic91
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fnatic91

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2013, 12:35:37 PM »

Hy i must say that i start with live arbing few weeks ago and didnt have any problems with it.I am not a normal arber like all of you here,i was only live betting before and i was finding a value bets that i bet on but like everywhere if you win constantly your account get limited very fast so i decide to try live arbing because i saw lot of opportunities before but i almost never want to bother with it and reason why i decide to do it was that all bookmakers cut my account very fast with my betting patterns.I dont understand how most of you loose money with it,it happen only one time that i loose money because goal was scored just after i place first bet but that was all.I almost always play u/o on football or ice hockey.You should ALWAYS first bet UNDER on one book because as game progress under ll always get smaller odds and over ll sometimes be even higher till your UNDER bet get accepted.Again i am not happy with this because books again limit my accounts faster than i was thinking off and money i earn is not so high.

And what if you start with the under and before you place the "over" bet the goal is scored? If you are betting on football game and provided you need 30 seconds to complete betting this will happen lets say 1 out of 50 times, sometimes even more frequent.

Actually more safe is to start with the over bet in my eyes, not to lose the bankroll.

You cant' bet the "over first" and i will explain why.The problem is that in 90% of arbs ,we should place the "over" at asians and they have pending time.

90% of arbs --> Over is placed at asians and Under at europeans.If you bet firstly "over" at asians ,they let it pending and you don't know when it will be confirmed...5 sec ,10 sec ,20 sec  ... At this time "under" decreases at europeans  and you get losses.

So ,the only thing that we can do is to bet firstly "under" at europeans  and as soon as it has been accepted , we should place "over" at asians.We get profits cuz the  "over" rarely (almost never) decreases ,it only increases.In this case ,the problem is the pending time.If a goal is scored ,you lose stake wagered on "under".From my own experience , probability is 1% - 1.5% (long term).It happens that you might lose 2-3 times in a row , but in long term it happens 1 or 2 out of 100
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MUCHBET
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MUCHBET

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2013, 02:52:54 PM »

if placing the over first at Asians, then wait until pending time is over - what can be UP TO TWO MINUTES!!!!), your under drops significantly and you definately have a loss on our arb of 1-3% min...
That's why I did quit live-arbing again as I had too many losses due to goals in pending-times - maybe I am rather unlucky, but it definately happened MORE than just 1-2 times out of hundret - for me ratehr 1-2x out of 50!
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fnatic91
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fnatic91

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2013, 04:58:37 PM »

if placing the over first at Asians, then wait until pending time is over - what can be UP TO TWO MINUTES!!!!), your under drops significantly and you definately have a loss on our arb of 1-3% min...
That's why I did quit live-arbing again as I had too many losses due to goals in pending-times - maybe I am rather unlucky, but it definately happened MORE than just 1-2 times out of hundret - for me ratehr 1-2x out of 50!

Mate, i think you are just unlucky.
Myself , i have  calculated it and it has resulted 1.8% ( 1.8 out of 100).My net profit is 65% of my total winnings , so i have lost 35% of my winnings due to pending goals.This is valid in long term , cuz like i said in short time it happens that you might have losses.It has happened to me that i have lost 2 bets in a row due to goals ,but it has also happened to me that i have not lost any single bet in a month (and i placed 400 bets that month) ... After you complete arbing both sides ,then it's just matter of luck.
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MUCHBET
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MUCHBET

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2013, 06:29:33 PM »

I don't know how big your arbs are thyt you usually go for - usually I took only arbs from 2+ % -
if you loose 1,8% there it can't be much left on the long run (of course depending on the odds from UNDER - especially first half U/O towards 30-38min will have between 2,00 down to around 1,50 - so this in fact is always the higher amount...
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ArberPro
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2013, 07:21:45 PM »

You talk about live arbing only at football a think live arbing is not meant for foobtall :)
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kapetan1122
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kapetan1122

Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?
« Reply #14 on: January 07, 2013, 08:22:18 PM »

I don't know how big your arbs are thyt you usually go for - usually I took only arbs from 2+ % -
if you loose 1,8% there it can't be much left on the long run (of course depending on the odds from UNDER - especially first half U/O towards 30-38min will have between 2,00 down to around 1,50 - so this in fact is always the higher amount...

I think 2% is little to less in live arbing,i dont play it under 3% and often i find arbs of 5% or more,football is hardest to find good arbs try ice hockey,volleyball,basketball.I had 10%+ arbs on that sports often.
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