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10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
neopas
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:46 pm

I m noticing a sudden drop on your volumes after March. May I ask why is this?
Thank you.
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:18 am

I m impressed by the variety of the markets. Unlike other value betting projects/bots you are not focusing only on 1 sport (soccer) and one market (1x2).
Also wondering if you use any service to spot the value.
In regards to the staking plan, I cant figure out what is it as there is no clear pattern. Could you share some more about the staking?
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:13 pm

I think he is using max stakes, which varies on every match
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:28 am

I've examined the data, thanks again. I must say I am a little disappointed though. The 32k profit for 10 months seems nice at first, but the fact that you had to use 100 accounts kinda brings it down for me. Not everyone is able to access that many accounts. I wonder would those accounts last longer if you would limit the maximum odds to say 1.95. But when you filter out those bets with odds higher than 1.95, the profit cuts down to roughly 2k. Or even if you filter out everything above 2.00, it is still under 3k. Value betting requires a considerable effort, so making a profit of under 300 a month doesn't make it seem worth.

On the other hand, I am impressed by the fact that you had been staking on both prematch and live. There is no way you could be catching value bets manually when playing live, right? So there must have been some alert service involved. Also, I'd like to comment on, at the first glance, inexplicably high stake on odds 13.00 for market "Match result and over 3/4 goals" on October 6th 2018, game between Oster and Landskrona. The inexplicably high stake on that game when compared to the other stakes gotta be because one of the two is true - the game was either fixed and you knew it, or the EV was too damn high. Right?
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:53 pm

3k per month is nothiong. I know persons who can make 3k per month with 3 limited! accounts not 100!
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:43 pm

maletaja wrote: 3k per month is nothiong. I know persons who can make 3k per month with 3 limited! accounts not 100!
Just because there are some guys making huge money , doesn´t mean 3k per month is not a good income.

Important question here is, are the 32K profit taking into the consideration the price of those 100 accs? If not, then it should go way down to the 25-27K range depending on the price of each acc/docs.
Last edited by jonibiza19 on Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:11 pm

Arbermac wrote: Duration: 10 months
Bets placed: 2416
Total Staked: £62985.51
Total Returned: £95016.81
Total Profit: £32031.3
ROI: 66.3%
Why do you tell about 66.3 % ROI, it it should be 50.85 %?
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:13 pm

There is a number of questions and comments in this thread and Arbermac is not here to comment. It is logic to assume that his need to post here has nothing to do with sharing knowledge. Most probably it has to do with his need to search for additional IDs to continue his betting action. That was pinpointed by a number of members before thread being chopped by arbusers.
I understand the administration of the forum that cuts dubious content, especially that one that moves to the edge of legality but here we are left with the impression that anyone could post whatever figures he/she likes.
I m sorry, this thread serves absolutely no reason to continue being in the forum.
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:56 pm

neopas wrote: There is a number of questions and comments in this thread and Arbermac is not here to comment. It is logic to assume that his need to post here has nothing to do with sharing knowledge. Most probably it has to do with his need to search for additional IDs to continue his betting action. That was pinpointed by a number of members before thread being chopped by arbusers.
I understand the administration of the forum that cuts dubious content, especially that one that moves to the edge of legality but here we are left with the impression that anyone could post whatever figures he/she likes.
I m sorry, this thread serves absolutely no reason to continue being in the forum.
I think the reason for the censorship from the administration might be due to the fact of this forum being under vigilance by some well known bookmakers,ewallets and possible governments. I think thats the reason for it.
Last edited by jonibiza19 on Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:28 pm

Race Punter wrote:
Arbermac wrote: Duration: 10 months
Bets placed: 2416
Total Staked: £62985.51
Total Returned: £95016.81
Total Profit: £32031.3
ROI: 66.3%
Why do you tell about 66.3 % ROI, it it should be 50.85 %?
50.85% is yield (profit / total stake)
We don’t know initial bankroll to calculate ROI. It must be around 48.500 to reach this ROI.
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:34 am

neopas wrote: There is a number of questions and comments in this thread and Arbermac is not here to comment. It is logic to assume that his need to post here has nothing to do with sharing knowledge. Most probably it has to do with his need to search for additional IDs to continue his betting action. That was pinpointed by a number of members before thread being chopped by arbusers.
I understand the administration of the forum that cuts dubious content, especially that one that moves to the edge of legality but here we are left with the impression that anyone could post whatever figures he/she likes.
I m sorry, this thread serves absolutely no reason to continue being in the forum.
This is a post of class.
Maybe I m the only one that didn't ask for the file so I m curious to see what campeones and his PHD guys came up with.
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:10 am

galt88 wrote: Arbermac can I ask  what kind of value soft you use?
Hi, I use several free odds comparison sites, a free arb finding service and then one piece of paid software which at this time I would prefer not to name.
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:18 am

campeones wrote:
Arbermac wrote: I obviously cant go into too much detail as it could give away my own edge but I don't mind sharing a bit more info.
Totally understand.
I m working for a syndicate on an administrative role and it employs a number of Ph.D. guys that do the maths. I passed all the data to them and they will analyze whatever they can. Obviously, we are having our own edges on what we do and I m not authorized to give them away. So here is a vicious circle, others call it a tragedy, that we can share knowledge for mutual benefit, but the circumstances are not allowing this in fear of losing our own edges.
Arbermac wrote: Bookies tend to be well established ones that have good presence in the UK. Ladbrokes, Will Hill, Betfred, Bet365, Paddypower, Betfair SP etc.
Are these bets placed online or offline? I guess we are talking about online execution. Common knowledge would put Bet365 on top of all activities, would you agree with that?
Arbermac wrote: My selection process is basically betting on outcomes that are a better price than what I deem the correct price (correct price can be a market average or pinnacle closing line) Some people might say that there is no way of knowing about closing odds but you can also have a good idea where the market is going and of course you will not get 100% right. Its all about the getting a large volume of money on, over a large volume of bets, with an edge and then in the long run you will profit.
So we are talking about market reading in the way that arbusers presented it some time ago.
Arbermac wrote: As mentioned above I don't want to give to much away but I would be interested in possibly sharing my picks with others as long as people were sharing theirs back with me. I'm already part of a small group which does this and basically you place the value bet yourself first then share with others.
Some people are not happy with this because they might think that you need a line to be moved by others before you lay your bets.

Thanks for all comments.

So, when I first started I did everything on line but as time went on I found it harder and harder to get bets on certain accounts. If these bookmakers had shops then I would try and take advantage of this. In answer the the question it is a mix of both but still majority online.

I am very interested to learn more about the syndicate you work for. As we are all aware it is hard to consistently beat bookmakers without being limited so do you do most business with the likes of pinnacle and betfair exchange or do you have an edge in very liquid high profile markets/events etc?
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

neopas wrote: I m noticing a sudden drop on your volumes after March. May I ask why is this?
Thank you.
I can’t be 100% sure but these are the reasons I would suggest....

1. End of several major football leagues around this time.
2. Harder and harder to place bets, especially ones with decent stakes.
3. In an attempt to prolong accounts I would leave certain bets out e.g might not take a value bet on u19 basketball prematch as it would be highly likely to have me limited regardless of it I won or lost.
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:26 am

x-casino wrote: I m impressed by the variety of the markets. Unlike other value betting projects/bots you are not focusing only on 1 sport (soccer) and one market (1x2).
Also wondering if you use any service to spot the value.
In regards to the staking plan, I cant figure out what is it as there is no clear pattern. Could you share some more about the staking?
Hi thanks for the positive comment, mentioned earlier that I use several free comparison sites, one free arb finding service and then one paid service.

In terms of the staking plan any figure that is not rounded will tend to be a max bet on a limited account. In general I try to place larger bets on larger value. I looked into the Kelly staking plan but opted against this and instead usually just placed a round number figure depending on value. Quite a lot of my stakes will fall between 10-40 as I felt that these amounts would allow me to get enough money down whilst also helping to keep accounts live.

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