Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
mrno
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Mon Nov 25, 2013 3:24 pm

Even if you run out of resources, only with one id , arbing is still very profitable 3k to 5k / month , and if you are lucky to have a  softbook  10k - 15k / month.
Yngwie
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:24 pm

mrno wrote: Even if you run out of resources, only with one id , arbing is still very profitable 3k to 5k / month , and if you are lucky to have a  softbook  10k - 15k / month.
What happens when that your only id get limited? :D

PS: Arbing between sharp books is another subject!
mrno
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:19 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:
mrno wrote: Even if you run out of resources, only with one id , arbing is still very profitable 3k to 5k / month , and if you are lucky to have a  softbook  10k - 15k / month.
What happens when that your only id get limited? :D

PS: Arbing between sharp books is another subject!
not to worry you still make a very good profit with only books that don't limit ... of course not with traditional arbing , this strategy is dead..
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Sat Nov 30, 2013 11:05 pm

Sawyer oh wise one, I have working honestly all my life, and play with middles and hedgeing and outsmarting bookmakers whilst working full time, after taxes my life time earnings will roughly be 300 to 450 k, that's over a life time, thank your gods you had the brains to make what you have. So you've been limited everywhere, but 98% of the world wake up on Monday morning and think'sheet, I've got to go back there again'. I bet you can't wait to wake up next day if you understand where I'm coming from :-D might I suggest you approach these same bookies and show them you are as good as their best handicapper? For a career change-
Yngwie
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Sat Nov 30, 2013 11:28 pm

I'm not limited at all books yet hopefully. But even it happens one day, I'm sure I will find another way(s).

Arbers are smart and creative people. Remember, there's always a way!

Even if my arbing adventure ends one day, Still, I have find some other weapons in my arsenal such as pregame trading. I learned this trait by arbing, after watching millions of line movement, you can easily predict the money way. I even use this tactic to maximize my arbing profits. I pick Parma at 2,00. Meanwhile, Bologna +0,5 is 2,12 in sharp books. I know moneyway will flow in Parma's favor so I waited 'til kick off and I was able to pick Bologna at 2,41! Sometimes, line moves against you, but you can always escape if it happens..

There's too much thing you can do. I know this is an arbitrage forum but sports betting is not only about arbitrage. You can make money by in-play trading or even straight betting. There's lots of ways to make money.

The reason why I opened this thread is..Arbing gets harder everyday so you must adapt yourself to new conditions. You must find new ways to arb even if everything is ok now. You must be prepared for future. I know you will succeed because arbers are smart people.

But guys, come on, you must stop after a point. Why spend your beautiful, precious time in front of computer when you have 10 Million Dollars? So please don't arb 'til you die. Get retired when you're filthy rich, lol.

PS: But what I will do when I'm retired? :D
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Mon Dec 02, 2013 7:29 pm

As I said in my PM to you.

Id love to learn half of what you know over my lifetime.

Lots of good info here to make you think harder about arbing.
Lansky
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:02 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:
atilla9 wrote: Every year I read same posts. Every year is better than previous.
Don't let "Bankroll Growth" mislead you.  Of course, you will make more profit with a 50k bankroll then a 10k bankroll. Every year, your business grows. But then you come to a point where you can't use your whole bank..say like 100k.

In addition, every year your experience increases. You're a newbie in your first year, more prone to mistakes, much experienced after few years so it means less mistakes, more profits..

But despite these bonuses, conditions get harder everyday. One thing is for sure, arbing is still profitable in today's age but much harder then 7-8 years ago.

Being optimistic is a good thing, but gotta be realistic also.

We don't have unlimited resources, you must keep this on your mind. Soft books won't welcome you forever. So it's a good idea to think about finding new ways..

I wish everyone a profitable weekend, Take care! ;)
Yes a very good point about Bankrolls over 100k. Visualize a bell-curve chart: eventually a point is reached where that mass of capital can't adequately be turned over so yields begin to fall. By 200k your having to take all that piddly little stuff under 1% just to make the turnover... there comes a point where one has to decide for themselves if it's worth the effort.

As for severity of limits I still see that as connected in parallel with the health of the economy. Stuck in this multi-year dry spell after the boom years in the middle of the last decade what else can one expect?
In Arbitrage, Percentages are Vanity and Turnover is Sanity.
Lansky
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:22 am

No, Bad Idea! Don't visualize a bell-curve (I was drowsy earlier and have come back now to fix my mistake). Rather than a nice symmetrical Gaussian distribution (ie. bell-curve) the correct thing to visualize would be a Levy Distribution as in this open-source range of examples from Wikipedia:
Image (between the black and the light blue is the graphed function we want).
According to Mandelbrot's 1963 study of Cotton prices going back to approximately 1900
http://homepage.sns.it/marmi/esameIUE/cotton.pdf he found that for explaining the ups and downs of financial markets the best fit was a Levy distribution where C=1.7
Nassim Taleb puts forward the idea that one explanation of the colossal failure of so many sophisticated financial instruments is the continued insistence by many that the symmetric Gaussian distribution model is the ideal and "normal" distribution model for risk. And that a fat-tailed or heavy-tailed distribution model of risk is much more accurate for what is seen in finance.

Sounds quite a bit like all those people who are so damned sure of the efficient-market hypothesis (as if it were the word of God) even in the face of blatant (and increasing) evidence from behavioral economists doesn't it?
In Arbitrage, Percentages are Vanity and Turnover is Sanity.
Yngwie
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Re: Arbing Gets Harder Everyday..

Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:21 am

Agreed with Brian here. Numbers don't mean a thing such as %, yield, turnover etc. What matters is the profit, the money in your pocket :D

Making %20 with 300k bank is better then making %50 return with a 100k bank :D

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