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Arbusers position on Brexit

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CharlieSheen99
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:36 am

dealer wins wrote:
raizzak wrote: There is not a single serious person to think that EU is a healthy organisation. But i still believe the Brits made the wrong decision. The real problem by me is that British people mislead by their exit leaders to facts that are not true at all. You all saw the bus Borris Johnson made, the message is definitely  wrong and im pretty sure deliberately mislead the people. Anyway whatever is done is done. I really hope Brits can made it work and really show the road so things can change.

Personally i believe they made the wrong decision but what the hell i know? Anyway you must be really thankful that you had a weekend just after the referendum. The markets are definitely overreacting but the losses the british economy took in just 24 hours are extremely heavy.

For what is worth my sister has a phd at economics (even if the macroeconomics is not the area of her specialization) and she also agrees that Brits made the wrong decision and their economy will take a heavy hit for the foreseeable future.
The EU has been a FAIL waiting to happen since it got political.  Trading agreement (common market) was a good idea, imposing one size fits all interest rates, taxes and millions of stupid rules and regulations was never going to work, and rich nations paying for poor nations is not a sustainable solution.

It will crumble, and the UK being out early will be flying when the house of cards falls. But shares, sell Euros.  Give it 5 years max, might even happen within 2 years or less!
It's an interesting question for all of us. If EU will crash in the next years, € will lose lot of its value, before some countries return to their respective coins, that means that we could lose a lot of money if it suceed. We have to be alert for this kind of situation.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:29 am

CharlieSheen99 wrote:
It's an interesting question for all of us. If EU will crash in the next years, € will lose lot of its value, before some countries return to their respective coins, that means that we could lose a lot of money if it suceed. We have to be alert for this kind of situation.
Diversify mate, thats the most basic thing!
If you have a house, your house will still have value no matter your currency.
If you have a job, your salary will still have value no matter, kind of, the currency.
Now if you have savings invested / stored, diversify them. Get some £, some $, some €, some precious metals etc.
We dont know shit about the future but we can largely protect ourselves from disaster scenarios.
Also, insurance companies exist for a reason, if someone is really worried, they will be more than happy to hedge the risk for a premium.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:44 am

FU, i bet tons of money REmain 1.4 fuck this shit
Bubbles
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:03 am

with the odds on offer all the value was on the other side  :(

I don't know if it can cheer you up but one lady in London put L 100 k on remain which set a new record for bets on a political event
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:46 am

Arbusers wrote: Stock Markets are an everyday's referendum.
Lets see who had the biggest damage this Friday.
What is the UK?
DAX: -6.82%
CAC: -8.04
MIB: -12.48
IBEX: -12.41
and guess what...FTSE: -3.15
you are so biased here.... You really remind me Borris Johnson tactics

how about the 8% fall of gbp to usd ? It lost 13 cents in 6 hours
how about the  6% fall of gbp to eur. It lost 6 cents there.

what about that also? http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/france-overtakes-uk-as-fifth-largest-economy-as-pound-plummets-5964746/

It should be wise to acknowledge everything and not only the aspect of a decision that help us to prove our point.

As i said again i hope UK manage to get out that slump and prosper, it is pretty much the only way to change that dysfunctioning organisisation called EU, but we can't ignore that so far (and it's incredibly short time) have taken a serious hit. Once again i believe they are extremely lucky they had a weekend in between. I believe upcoming weeks will be also at the same pattern and let's hope after that for a positive reaction
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:50 pm

vinciguerra wrote: Because financial markets are always right???

Anyway, more than the Brexit itself or the economic consequences I'm pretty amazed about the number of people who want things back to "how they were". the world is changing: we as arbers especially know we need to adapt to survive, not close the curtains and lock yourself in your own house.  The fact Brexit was mostly backed by old people, while young people predominantly voted "Remain" says it all really.
Financial markets are right most of the times. The reason behind this, is that who ever acts in the markets, is risking his wealth, his future and the future of his kids. Therefore, wisdom comes first.
I don't think people wants things back to ''how they were'', but most probably they want ''something else'' from what they already have.
When it comes to arbers, EU legislation is more problem than solution. Especially for continental europeans. This might not be the case for Britons who might see their options getting limited. On the other hand, all these Romanians, Greeks, Italians and Germans that still arb after the regulation of their country...know something more.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:59 pm

raizzak wrote: how about the 8% fall of gbp to usd ? It lost 13 cents in 6 hours
how about the  6% fall of gbp to eur. It lost 6 cents there.
Ok, lets acknowledge everything and not only the aspect of a decision that help us to prove our point, as you say.
Whose exports are going to be benefitted from this? Germany's? USA's?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _(nominal)
Everyone had a different angle s you see.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:28 pm

Arbusers wrote:
vinciguerra wrote: Because financial markets are always right???

Anyway, more than the Brexit itself or the economic consequences I'm pretty amazed about the number of people who want things back to "how they were". the world is changing: we as arbers especially know we need to adapt to survive, not close the curtains and lock yourself in your own house.  The fact Brexit was mostly backed by old people, while young people predominantly voted "Remain" says it all really.
Financial markets are right most of the times. The reason behind this, is that who ever acts in the markets, is risking his wealth, his future and the future of his kids. Therefore, wisdom comes first.
I don't think people wants things back to ''how they were'', but most probably they want ''something else'' from what they already have.
When it comes to arbers, EU legislation is more problem than solution. Especially for continental europeans. This might not be the case for Britons who might see their options getting limited. On the other hand, all these Romanians, Greeks, Italians and Germans that still arb after the regulation of their country...know something more.
Common people have not enough knowledge about financial markets to get involved directly but they invest in funds, quite often regardless of their will because that’s the way that pension schemes, annuities etc are regulated in their countries. They can’t opt out. So it’s down to fund managers who are after short-term gains that will give them this year bonuses. They are not risking “their wealth”, and they’re more than happy to play with someone else money.

I wouldn’t say that there is or ever was much wisdom in f markets. You wouldn’t have crisis circle if there was much wisdom. Needless to say there have always been individuals smart enough to benefit from them but markets in general - I’m afraid it’s just greed vs fear that manage them.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:06 pm

Bubbles wrote: Common people have not enough knowledge about financial markets to get involved directly but they invest in funds, quite often regardless of their will because that’s the way that pension schemes, annuities etc are regulated in their countries. They can’t opt out. So it’s down to fund managers who are after short-term gains that will give them this year bonuses. They are not risking “their wealth”, and they’re more than happy to play with someone else money.
This... I was checking a friends pension fund papers the other day, all options are bad, made to pay fees to active money managers. Add all the government pension regulations, you need to get an independent financial adviser to help you make a passive pension fund
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:11 pm

Arbusers wrote: Ok, lets acknowledge everything and not only the aspect of a decision that help us to prove our point, as you say.
Whose exports are going to be benefitted from this? Germany's? USA's?
That's not a wrong thing that you said but do you understand that has 2 sides right? a lesser pound will help uks exports and boost their competiveness. BUT uk is one of the biggest importers in the world and they run a trade deficit of 5%. Sure they will hurt EU USA and the rest of the world but they atm will hurt more themselves


Arbusers wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
Everyone had a different angle s you see.
I'm not sure i understand your point

edit: i just saw that article http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-26/scotland-threatens-veto-brexit
that makes things even more complicated. If it's true i see 2 options: 1st Britain can't leave EU 2nd GB breakup in pieces (more likely imo)
Last edited by raizzak on Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:42 pm

Arbusers wrote: Financial markets are right most of the times.
I disagree with this. I trade financial markets, I think you do as well, Long term financial markets are somewhat efficient at some times, in the short term it's all emotions. Financial markets definitely got Brexit happening wrong, that's for sure. On top of this, central banks around the world pretty much "rig" markets anyway, to make sure they get out of it what they want (a weak currency, lower interest rates, whatever) You posted a one day return as proof of something: I just don't think that says anything, come back in a couple of years when the UK has actually exited the EU and then we can see how the FTSE did.,
Arbusers wrote: When it comes to arbers, EU legislation is more problem than solution. Especially for continental europeans.
it depends I guess, before EU legislation many Euro countries had 1 state-owned operator. The EU has in many cases breached those monopolies and gotten a licensing-structure in place. Both are worthless to arbers, we need to be able to access all the books all the time without any hassle. I don't see the difference and the smart guys among us know ways to stay out of trouble, so what's the problem exactly??  It definitely wasn't gambling walhalla before the EU butted in either; there's a grey zone in which we arbers operate and it's as grey as it ever was.

And, let's face it, if anything has been good to Euro arbers it's the Euro. Getting raped (or having to go through endless hoops) on currency conversion to GBP or USD or AUD or whatever is one thing, imagine also having to convert to 20+ seperate European currencies.  It would be madness..  The Euro is very good for us arbers whatever way you look at it.
Last edited by vinciguerra on Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:15 pm

vinciguerra wrote:
Arbusers wrote: Financial markets are right most of the times.
And, let's face it, if anything has been good to Euro arbers it's the Euro. Getting raped (or having to go through endless hoops) on currency conversion to GBP or USD or AUD or whatever is one thing, imagine also having to convert to 20+ seperate European currencies.  It would be madness..  The Euro is very good for us arbers whatever way you look at it.
This is the most important thing I've heard regarding the matter that would seriously practically affect the lot of us, although I'm sure some people in here would find some way to take advantage.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:09 pm

vinciguerra wrote:
Skaggerak wrote:
Arbusers wrote: Stock Markets are an everyday's referendum.
Lets see who had the biggest damage this Friday.
What is the UK?
DAX: -6.82%
CAC: -8.04
MIB: -12.48
IBEX: -12.41
and guess what...FTSE: -3.15
Amazing, the numbers beyond the hysteria show this could be a great decision.
Because financial markets are always right???

Anyway, more than the Brexit itself or the economic consequences I'm pretty amazed about the number of people who want things back to "how they were". the world is changing: we as arbers especially know we need to adapt to survive, not close the curtains and lock yourself in your own house.  The fact Brexit was mostly backed by old people, while young people predominantly voted "Remain" says it all really.
This is propganda and not looking further then the numbers. Just 25% of the youth voted and 81% of the 'old people'. So they had the oppurtunity to vote but they didn't. Maybe if the 56% of the youngsters would have voted also this group of the population would have voted exit, we will not now. But saying that this says it all is BS in my opinion.

I think the oldies got the experience and just have seen what for a disaster the EU is and voted for the future of the United Kingdom.
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:28 pm

Kalf1992 wrote:
vinciguerra wrote:
Skaggerak wrote: Amazing, the numbers beyond the hysteria show this could be a great decision.
Because financial markets are always right???

Anyway, more than the Brexit itself or the economic consequences I'm pretty amazed about the number of people who want things back to "how they were". the world is changing: we as arbers especially know we need to adapt to survive, not close the curtains and lock yourself in your own house.  The fact Brexit was mostly backed by old people, while young people predominantly voted "Remain" says it all really.
This is propganda and not looking further then the numbers. Just 25% of the youth voted and 81% of the 'old people'. So they had the oppurtunity to vote but they didn't. Maybe if the 56% of the youngsters would have voted also this group of the population would have voted exit, we will not now. But saying that this says it all is BS in my opinion.

I think the oldies got the experience and just have seen what for a disaster the EU is and voted for the future of the United Kingdom.
The polls among young people clearly showed that 80% were for Remain. The big Cameron’s mistake was setting a date for referendum which could be any date but in his incompetence (considering he was backing remain) he choose a date which was about one months after the end of Universities last term missing out on millions of votes of the most homogenously Remain group in British society. Well done indeed
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:16 pm

Kalf1992 wrote: I think the oldies got the experience and just have seen what for a disaster the EU is and voted for the future of the United Kingdom.
Sure, that's one way of looking at it. I look at it from a different direction. I see mainly people that feel threathened, by a society that's quickly changing, by the "immigrants", by the future in general. This group is obviously represented very well by MaxShalamar when he says "before the common market we had a steel industry, a car industry, a shipbuilding industry, a mining industry .. all gone now", and "we stood on our own two feet and led the world in many things". And let's face it, there are a lot more people like Max in the UK and definitely in mainland Europe.

But really, every single industry Max names is stuck in the 70s, and it isn't the EU that caused that. think about it, the coal industry for example is dead. The leading US coal producers -> all bankrupt, the EU's fault? Coal as a % of energy usage is dropping like a brick, natural gas, oil, renewable has taken its place. Whatever coal is needed comes from China where it's cheaper. Is that the EU's fault perhaps?  The car industry?  Once very big in the US, on life support now. Is that the EU's fault?  Max comes up with a bunch of industries have been either made extinct by technological progress (as it should, coal is ridiculously inefficient) or competition (China was a third world country 20 years ago, now they're an economic giant, the same goes for India). That's the way it is, it's called change, adapt or perish. And in exchange there are thousands of new industries, we didn't have mobile phones then, we didn't even have the internet). And Max is talking about the UK needing to be a leader in coal???  in mining???  Really?

And sure, you could say only UK coal for the British people. Trade barriers, high import duties, everything to keep the Chinese, the Indians, the Africans, everybody we don't like, away. But do you think the rest of the world will accept that?  How exactly does Max propose the UK "leads the world?"  By UK companies only selling to the UK people?  As trade barriers do go both ways. UK is a trade nation, retrenching and closing the borders,  not such a good idea.  Besides, that wouldn't make the UK like Norway or Switzerland, it would make the UK like North Korea.

But honestly, who gives a shit about Brexit. The EU has become a bureaucratic nightmare and needs reform, but with so many member states who only care about their own interest this won't happen. But let's not pretend the EU was ever that omni-present in the UK in the first place, no euro to worry about, the significance of all of this is blown way out of proportion. It'll likely cost London a few % GDP, it will likely cost the rural areas a lot of subsidies, and perhaps Scotland will leave, but so what in the grand scheme of things?  What will happen is that UK citizens like Max will lose a scape-goat and otherwise absolutely nothing will change. Or actually things will change, but if the UK isolates itself not for the better. Then people like Max will likely find someone else to blame for their own discomfort, but the world will still go round.
Last edited by vinciguerra on Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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