BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
alimma
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 58
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:23 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Tue May 09, 2017 10:24 pm

Alfa1234 wrote: He also said you needed a BF account with a rediculously low commission rate  (I believe it was under 2%).  I believe markets have gotten too efficient now to take advantage of stuff between Pinnacle and Betfair.
too be truthfull, that is still possible and it is the arbing that all professionals are doing now. i do not use any software, dont know how to build one but i still find atleast one arb per day on the asians and exchange though the offer might be small but the profit is with 5 to 10 of my currency. i know the professionals hit this big.

but like said, why waste sure talent on bookies whereas you can do same on stock
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6216
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Wed May 10, 2017 7:17 am

The crown of all smart gambling action remains the arbitrage among sharp books only with the use of bots. This extremely limited number of people operating in this field, are staying in the shadow enjoying the fruits of their ingeniousness, strolling with their dogs at the forests at the very moment when all the others are heart beating in front of their pc.

http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,4609.msg53922.html#msg53922
Oldboy
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:47 am

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Wed May 10, 2017 12:43 pm

alimma wrote: but like said, why waste sure talent on bookies whereas you can do same on stock
I have no clue how to do that. It sound like gambling  ;) The one who comes up with a formula for trading stocks will be rich. I don't think there's any. Beacuse you can only look at old data when creating one. And there's no guarantee that this pattern will repeat. Or? I'm a novice in stocks as well  :P
Oldboy
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:47 am

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Wed May 10, 2017 12:46 pm

Arbusers wrote: The crown of all smart gambling action remains the arbitrage among sharp books only with the use of bots. This extremely limited number of people operating in this field, are staying in the shadow enjoying the fruits of their ingeniousness, strolling with their dogs at the forests at the very moment when all the others are heart beating in front of their pc.

http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,4609.msg53922.html#msg53922
This is poetic  ::)
Shme1934
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 3
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu May 11, 2017 1:57 am

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Thu May 11, 2017 2:09 am

Well if you want to automate betting between sharps or exchanges, you have to be much much faster then alert services.. when you try to bet any arb from alert between sharps/exchanges you will in 100% cases find out that odds are incorrect or you can not bet right now due to odds being recaluclared or line moved...

I am not saying that it is impossible, but this can not be simple software that parse their webistes or get data from API in loops, because it won't be fast enough and it too many request comming from same IP will most likely flag you and slow you down. This has to be done as distributed system between many servers (vps) and this is not trivial software that some indos will code for you for few thousand dollars. If someone managed to create bots like this, he will never tell anyone ,because once there would be other bot , he wont be fastest at all arbs and he wont be able to bet them...
Oldboy
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:47 am

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Thu May 11, 2017 8:13 am

Shme1934 wrote: Well if you want to automate betting between sharps or exchanges, you have to be much much faster then alert services.. when you try to bet any arb from alert between sharps/exchanges you will in 100% cases find out that odds are incorrect or you can not bet right now due to odds being recaluclared or line moved...
I would assume that the alert services uses the API that's provided by the sharp bookies / exchanges or some other service that's available like AsianOdds88. I guess the latency and speed would be the same for them as for anyone using the API. But I agree that this is the crucial point for creating a bot. I don think you need to be faster than alert services just as fast. Cause a bot will place the bet instantly while anyone using a alert service need to do it manually.
Shme1934 wrote: I am not saying that it is impossible, but this can not be simple software that parse their webistes or get data from API in loops, because it won't be fast enough and it too many request comming from same IP will most likely flag you and slow you down. This has to be done as distributed system between many servers (vps)
The amount of request that can be done will be determined by the API. If this is limited to a number that makes it impossible to beat the alert services it won't work. But I think my point is that the alert services are doing it somehow. Wouldn't there be more money for them actually placing the bets then provide them as a paid service?
Shme1934 wrote: and this is not trivial software that some indos will code for you for few thousand dollars. If someone managed to create bots like this, he will never tell anyone ,because once there would be other bot , he wont be fastest at all arbs and he wont be able to bet them...
I don't know if I come out as naive, but I'm not. I don't think I can pay a freelancer a couple of thousand dollar to do this. But looking at the arbitrage business and where it is at this point I think the arrows are pointing in this direction. I'm trying to find out if anyone is already there, not by the people actually doing it, but from info / rumors that are out there. Thanks for your input Shme1934  :)
Last edited by Oldboy on Thu May 11, 2017 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
Alfa1234
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 63
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 2:52 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Thu May 11, 2017 8:36 am

The alert services are not doing it.  You think they are, but they aren't.  ;D

When an alert service posts the odds, they update every 6 to 15 seconds for sharps.  Whenever you see an arb between the sharps in those services, it means 1 of the odds has JUST updated while the other is in fact already 5 to 14 seconds old...the services think there's an arb but in reality this arb is no longer there.  As soon as they update the 'old' odd, that arb will dissappear.
Bubbles
To become a Pro
To become a ProTo become a ProTo become a Pro
Karma: 8
Posts: 307
Joined: Fri May 22, 2015 3:49 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Thu May 11, 2017 10:37 am

Oldboy wrote: Wouldn't there be more money for them actually placing the bets then provide them as a paid service?
You answer your own question here: they would if they could...
hft
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon May 15, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Mon May 15, 2017 10:20 pm

Hi,

Thank you for this forum and thanks for having me.

It all sounds great in theory but in practice it won't work for several reasons. Sharps compare them to other sharps and most of them use the same calculations (Monte Carlo) to create their odds, so the above statements that prices are calculated how their sides on the book are looking are not correct.

They hedge themselves on exchanges when one side becomes too heavy.....they can't fix that with odds alone, this is not how it works.

It's not worth it. If you look at finance arbitrage got completely killed. Even market making and providing liquidity or bid ask scalping is basically completely over. The income of that industry went from 7 billion $ to less than 1 billion $ today. Even they are sweating and scrambling to make a penny. (with higher costs and more efforts to make 7 times less money as they used too)

No idea what numbers are on arb sports betting.

Cheers
Last edited by hft on Mon May 15, 2017 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
NedlogViiibes
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 3
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:31 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Tue May 16, 2017 7:27 am

hft wrote: Hi,

Thank you for this forum and thanks for having me.

It all sounds great in theory but in practice it won't work for several reasons. Sharps compare them to other sharps and most of them use the same calculations (Monte Carlo) to create their odds, so the above statements that prices are calculated how their sides on the book are looking are not correct.

They hedge themselves on exchanges when one side becomes too heavy.....they can't fix that with odds alone, this is not how it works.

It's not worth it. If you look at finance arbitrage got completely killed. Even market making and providing liquidity or bid ask scalping is basically completely over. The income of that industry went from 7 billion $ to less than 1 billion $ today. Even they are sweating and scrambling to make a penny. (with higher costs and more efforts to make 7 times less money as they used too)

No idea what numbers are on arb sports betting.

Cheers
Not correct. Sharp bookmakers use their sharp customers to get as close to the real price as possible. They obviously don't hedge on exchanges, as they run a business, that in the long run will make them money due to their margin on 2%.
Oldboy
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:47 am

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Tue May 16, 2017 8:58 am

hft wrote: It's not worth it. If you look at finance arbitrage got completely killed. Even market making and providing liquidity or bid ask scalping is basically completely over. The income of that industry went from 7 billion $ to less than 1 billion $ today. Even they are sweating and scrambling to make a penny. (with higher costs and more efforts to make 7 times less money as they used too)

No idea what numbers are on arb sports betting.

Cheers
Why is finance arbitrage used as an example for that arbs between sharp bookies and exchanges won't work?  ??? Either arbs between sharps / exchanges exits or they don't.

I think the topic on how they set their initial odds is interesting. Do all sharps use the same calculations to set them? Or is there services that provide them with the odds?

Another thing I would like to know is if they all have the same algoritms to balance the sides / move the odds? Thanks for all input so far  :)
Last edited by Oldboy on Tue May 16, 2017 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
hft
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon May 15, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Fri May 19, 2017 6:07 am

NedlogViiibes wrote:
hft wrote: Hi,

Thank you for this forum and thanks for having me.

It all sounds great in theory but in practice it won't work for several reasons. Sharps compare them to other sharps and most of them use the same calculations (Monte Carlo) to create their odds, so the above statements that prices are calculated how their sides on the book are looking are not correct.

They hedge themselves on exchanges when one side becomes too heavy.....they can't fix that with odds alone, this is not how it works.

It's not worth it. If you look at finance arbitrage got completely killed. Even market making and providing liquidity or bid ask scalping is basically completely over. The income of that industry went from 7 billion $ to less than 1 billion $ today. Even they are sweating and scrambling to make a penny. (with higher costs and more efforts to make 7 times less money as they used too)

No idea what numbers are on arb sports betting.

Cheers
Not correct. Sharp bookmakers use their sharp customers to get as close to the real price as possible. They obviously don't hedge on exchanges, as they run a business, that in the long run will make them money due to their margin on 2%.
What you say is incorrect.

If their profit is the 2% margin as you say that means they have to fully offset the rest of the amount. That means they hedge on an exchange.

Your post proves my statement.
hft
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon May 15, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Fri May 19, 2017 6:09 am

Oldboy wrote:
hft wrote: It's not worth it. If you look at finance arbitrage got completely killed. Even market making and providing liquidity or bid ask scalping is basically completely over. The income of that industry went from 7 billion $ to less than 1 billion $ today. Even they are sweating and scrambling to make a penny. (with higher costs and more efforts to make 7 times less money as they used too)

No idea what numbers are on arb sports betting.

Cheers
Why is finance arbitrage used as an example for that arbs between sharp bookies and exchanges won't work?  ??? Either arbs between sharps / exchanges exits or they don't.

I think the topic on how they set their initial odds is interesting. Do all sharps use the same calculations to set them? Or is there services that provide them with the odds?

Another thing I would like to know is if they all have the same algoritms to balance the sides / move the odds? Thanks for all input so far  :)
Most of them use the same models per sport in the industry and a lot of them take bet365 as a baseline.

I guarantee you they exchange data to see where they do incorrect pricing, meaning arbs will have a much more difficult job in the future.
dealer wins
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 43
Posts: 966
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:16 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Fri May 19, 2017 6:10 am

I dont think sharps hedge on the exchange, they dont need to. 

Im sure sometimes they will be exposed on one side of the line, but over time they will win the exposed side as many times as they lose it.  Thats why well funded books are essential, and underfunded ones are always at risk of either going bust, or stiffing punters (Think 1xbet lol)
Never trust a goose!!!
NedlogViiibes
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 3
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:31 pm

Re: Automated betting service between Sharp bookies & Exchanges

Fri May 19, 2017 8:03 am

hft wrote:
NedlogViiibes wrote:
hft wrote: Hi,

Thank you for this forum and thanks for having me.

It all sounds great in theory but in practice it won't work for several reasons. Sharps compare them to other sharps and most of them use the same calculations (Monte Carlo) to create their odds, so the above statements that prices are calculated how their sides on the book are looking are not correct.

They hedge themselves on exchanges when one side becomes too heavy.....they can't fix that with odds alone, this is not how it works.

It's not worth it. If you look at finance arbitrage got completely killed. Even market making and providing liquidity or bid ask scalping is basically completely over. The income of that industry went from 7 billion $ to less than 1 billion $ today. Even they are sweating and scrambling to make a penny. (with higher costs and more efforts to make 7 times less money as they used too)

No idea what numbers are on arb sports betting.

Cheers
Not correct. Sharp bookmakers use their sharp customers to get as close to the real price as possible. They obviously don't hedge on exchanges, as they run a business, that in the long run will make them money due to their margin on 2%.
What you say is incorrect.

If their profit is the 2% margin as you say that means they have to fully offset the rest of the amount. That means they hedge on an exchange.

Your post proves my statement.
Read what dealer wins writes.

As for how they set their initial odds, I don't know. Though I highly doubt bet365 is their baseline book. How do you know this hlt?

Let me give you an example:

Pinnacle has a bet on heads or tails for a coin. The real probability is 50% for each side. The opening line is 2.26 for heads / 1.69 for tails. They open up with small limits and the bets start coming in. They now let their sharps get them as close to the real price as possible. Within the first couple of minutes the price will probably have dropped to 2.1 and over time the price will go down to 1.96 / 1.96. The limits are going up as the price gets closer to the real price. At one point the limits will be skyhigh and Pinnacle will be confident in their lines. Even if 90% of the public is betting on tails here, they would still be confident in their line until their sharp customers start betting tails as well. When you make a bet at 1.96 with a 50% chance of winning, then you will lose money in the long run = Pinnacle will make money. The only reason there is to make a bet on an exchange is to lower the risk for that one bet. They have thousands each day, and eventually variance will even out. That is the good thing about variance, if you are on the right side of it :)

Read up on closing lines on Pinnacle. Their closing odds (on big markets) are on average spot on, which means if you want to make money long term from betting, you will have to beat Pinnacles closing lines. Their closing lines are spot on because they use their sharp customers as a source of information.

Return to “Arbing, matched betting and trading talk”