Arbusers

Hi all,

This is a topic that I haven’t seen mentioned much, so I’m hoping that some of you might have some wisdom to share.

Assuming that I have a prediction for some line that I want to bet on. For example, I believe that 2.0 is a good price, and pinny is now at 2.1 (I’m only considering sharp bookies, the sorts are not relevant to me at the moment).

What’s the best way to act?
Option 1: bet now, even if the liquidity is low.
Option 2: wait for the liquidity to increase, and hope that you don’t miss the good price.
Option 3: split your order, make many small bets and hope not to move the price too much.
Option 4: other?

related questions:
- after a large trade, how long does it take the market to “forget it”, on average (in time or in messages).
- when betting through aggregators such as Molly, to what extent do they use your information to keep moving the line?

Thanks a lot guys.

ex-hft wrote: Hi all,

This is a topic that I haven’t seen mentioned much, so I’m hoping that some of you might have some wisdom to share.

Assuming that I have a prediction for some line that I want to bet on. For example, I believe that 2.0 is a good price, and pinny is now at 2.1 (I’m only considering sharp bookies, the sorts are not relevant to me at the moment).

What’s the best way to act?
Option 1: bet now, even if the liquidity is low.
Option 2: wait for the liquidity to increase, and hope that you don’t miss the good price.
Option 3: split your order, make many small bets and hope not to move the price too much.
Option 4: other?

related questions:
- after a large trade, how long does it take the market to “forget it”, on average (in time or in messages).
- when betting through aggregators such as Molly, to what extent do they use your information to keep moving the line?

Thanks a lot guys.

Hello ex-hft,
Sure you're familiar with Price Action and Cold trading.
Most of the techniques in finance industry work here in sports betting, taking into account their specifics .
Assuming you've find out value odds 2.1 Pinny to current market price 2.0. Do you have experience in sportal assessments? Kelly and Vince's methods are good starting points for your work here.
My thoughts about your options 1, 2 and 3 - your action is up to you only, according to your trading or action plan. When it comes to trading, that plan is predefined - entry points, exit points, take profit, stop loss etc. Or in value betting - that ratio you've mentioned 2.1 high to 2.0 median market, pregame, in-play mode, expectations, assessments and action plan regarding predefined points.

In addition to:
option 1 and 2 - Is your pattern giving you prediction about liquidity? Update your plan and act accordingly.
More the liquidity market, less the bookie and exchanges' margin. Increasing liquidity cause stable the odds and rarely seen the "spikes" in technical analysis. And vice-versa.
option 3 - maybe according to your action plan and patterns triggered to you expectations for future value? I can't understand your question here about option 3.
Option 4 - see above. Recommendations: make more observations, use statistics, backtesting all the data, value assessments, update data patterns, using time series etc.
In general, make constant improvements in your work.
And introduce quality analysis (fundamental analysis). More years are required for that. Hot trading have some noise, therefore your task is more complex.
All that work mentioned above give to you action plan or trading plan, staking plan included.

Regarding your additional question, do you mean stable market odds after big actions? If you may observe bid/ask dynamics and money flow (exchange for instance), you may import these observations in your patterns. See UK horse markets vs US horse markets, volleyball or soccer premier vs low leagues markets and compare.

Thank you arb12.
I am trading many low liquidity markets automatically, so Kelly/Vince aren't what's blocking most of my trades - liquidity is the problem.
The signals might be derived from "technical analysis" / cold trading, or from fundamental analysis (usually a combination of both).

What is hard for me to evaluate is how long of an impact my trades will have on the market.
For example, if I'm betting on a game where the maximum bet size on pinny is $200, and I bet the full 200.
The price will move by approximately the spread of the book, let's say 5%.
How long will it take for the price to forget my trade?

This is something that you can't evaluate from historical data - because trades are more right than wrong on average, and the price is constantly converging towards the closing price. But in my case, assume that I trade at random, it should have no long-lasting impact.
Does that make any sense?

Regarding option 3: in the above scenario, don't bet 200. Bet only 50. Wait, then bet another 50, and so forth.

ex-hft wrote: Thank you arb12.
I am trading many low liquidity markets automatically, so Kelly/Vince aren't what's blocking most of my trades - liquidity is the problem.
The signals might be derived from "technical analysis" / cold trading, or from fundamental analysis (usually a combination of both).

What is hard for me to evaluate is how long of an impact my trades will have on the market.
For example, if I'm betting on a game where the maximum bet size on pinny is $200, and I bet the full 200.
The price will move by approximately the spread of the book, let's say 5%.
How long will it take for the price to forget my trade?

This is something that you can't evaluate from historical data - because trades are more right than wrong on average, and the price is constantly converging towards the closing price. But in my case, assume that I trade at random, it should have no long-lasting impact.
Does that make any sense?

Regarding option 3: in the above scenario, don't bet 200. Bet only 50. Wait, then bet another 50, and so forth.

@ ex-hft,

Advice you to forward all the experience in finance trading here plus sportal expertise, based on various observations.
Congrats for choose to use only sharp bookies if your trading / value positions are based on bots in low liquidity markets, your winning probabilities increase due to lower chances regarding to issues with profitable tradings / positions in algo trading. Long run experience and backtesting data will help you to reduce noise in quality and quantity data and therefore upgrade better patterns in cold and hot trading.
Again, construct for yourself patterns based on long time observations on ask/bid dynamics and volume on exchanges and bookies (when applicable). All the market makers tend to achieve balance book, therefore you may guess why in low liquidity markets your volume is treated for them like same positions on high liquidity positions minus leverage, similar to forex and share markets, surely you've that experience.
Important thing in that case is your  broker not to take positions on your bets, similar A-pools in forex / stocks brokers. If you secure that options, your winning probabilities increase. These brokers are similar to ECN network in finance area.
Regarding your statement - your trading trades are more right than wrong on average: you may experiment with various staking plans. Tricky decisions, indeed. But you've financial background and you will survive. Backtesting historical data loaded with various staking plans. Maybe that will helps you. Keep in mind, your positions in low liquidity markets are giant issues for market makers regarding to their money balancing. That's why your bets in low liquidity markets have huge impact to their odds and book balance. They must be profitable on these ones.
When it comes to option 3 - I see some sense when your algorithm /trading plan/ robots are awaiting for future value increment. Or maybe your assessment for future action is "unstable" and awaiting for trend change and tend to mitigate risk and aiming to act accordingly unstable conditions? You know better.
Good luck and don't forget to feedback your achievements:)

Thanks again.
I will try to feedback in the future, remind me if I don’t.
For now I can say that I’m having fun, but not a lot of profit. As usual with these kinds of projects, the signals add up. I hope that I’m betting on the right kinds of data to get there quickly enough.

In both BTC, and sport price movements, I always split my entry on a range of entry points. There are pros and cons, but I find myself more familiar with this style. So I guess that would be option 3 from the list.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:04 pm

I will try to feedback in the future, remind me if I don’t.
For now I can say that I’m having fun, but not a lot of profit. As usual with these kinds of projects, the signals add up.

Hello again Ex-hft,
I'm sure you've gotten much more experience several months later. Any updates on your side?

Unfortunately I haven’t.
I’ve spent the entire time improving my signals, and left my trading still extremely unoptimized.
What I do is take all of the liquidity that I can find on Molly, then cool down for a long time - and go again after that if the conditions are still favorable, as many times as possible.
I still don’t use any exchanges, as well as any other non-api liquidity. One day I will…