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Betfair

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Buddha

Re: Betfair

Sat Jan 25, 2014 9:49 am

Betunfair has increased commission to 7% a while ago for a number of countries, including Albania. You can look here http://en.learning.betfair.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/2684

The way I see it, there will be much less liquidity(already happening), especially on markets of the countries hit with commission increase(not to mention those that are not even accepted on Betfair).
My suggestion is switching to Betdaq Exchange, which was recently bought by Ladbrokes plc. It does a have a chance at becoming a decent rival to Betfair and now is the time! We need more players there! The commission is 3% starting and you can lower it to 2% by points.
Last edited by Buddha on Sat Jan 25, 2014 10:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Betfair

Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:10 am

Lets be realistic here.
Successful traders do not care a lot about the 7% commission rate. Why is that?
Because if they win in all of their trades, they pay this 7% only to their winnings that came out of the trade within betfair. Traders will worry for 1 thing only. The change of their status ''to constant winners'' that might be accompanied with special implemented tax from betfair.
On the other hand, arbers are banged hard here. Why? Because if they win, they will have to pay for money that came from an other bookmaker to betfair.

The changes in Betfair's commission rate are designed to eat money from arbers, value bettors and the bulk of small fishes all over the world.

Value bettors will eventualy switch to pinnacle, sbobet or even AC.
The small fishes will stay there to be eaten by the shark (betfair).
Arbers will struggle to find a way out. Some will make it, some will not.
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Re: Betfair

Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:28 am

Arbusers if I catch a golden fish...and she give me one wish...it will be to have youre brain! :)
dr
drhoo

Re: Betfair

Sat Jan 25, 2014 12:14 pm

yea, i bet they struck a deal with some bookies, because they' re too dumb to tackle arbers in any different way.

first skrill increases commisions 10 fold, now this?

betdaq refuses to offer their services in our country for some reason (slovenia) - i could use it last year, but not anymore.

i will try and make most my arbs on matchbook or smarkets or back-back with pinnie and asians and keep betfair around only for live arbing where it's more profitable and you can actually survive the commision.

seriously, there are so dumb people working at betfair, that's embarrassing.
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Re: Betfair

Sat Jan 25, 2014 12:33 pm

drhoo wrote: seriously, there are so dumb people working at betfair, that's embarrassing.
My initial thought also, but didnt want to be heard so harsh.
They made an analysis before deciding this thing. I m sure their analysis was based on wrong assumptions.
Let me make an other guess now. They will keep decent volumes untill the WorldCup, but next season will be a disaster for Betfair. At this stage, they will attack affiliates, because they will not be able to reverse the trend with players. We will be here and we will discuss it again.
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Re: Betfair

Sat Jan 25, 2014 4:34 pm

drhoo wrote:
also, i think if arber bets only odds 1.5 or lower .... if bookies made arbs only on favorites instead of underdogs .... i have learned this last few months and have lost tons of money on slowbooks .... favourite will lose from time to time, and on lower odds you can bet more. if you win you will not go up as much and if you lose you will lose a lot of money on slow bookie..
 
i think this approach would benefit arber and bookie. i have yet to find a bookie who would test this theory though.

if i was trader, i would try this. i would make default bet limit on odds under 1.5 up to 1000€ (huge bets) and i would make default bet limit for underdogs (odds above 2.0) to let's say maximum 200€ or even less, a 100€. that way, you can't bet a lot on underdogs, but you can bet a lot on favorites. it's a win win for bookie and arber.
i don't want to be mean, but re-think what you're saying here. it's completely flawed and shows you haven't really understood the basics. In the long term whether odds are 1.01 or 1000 doesn't matter: the slow book will lose money.
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Re: Betfair

Sat Jan 25, 2014 4:39 pm

drhoo wrote:
also, i think if arber bets only odds 1.5 or lower .... if bookies made arbs only on favorites instead of underdogs .... i have learned this last few months and have lost tons of money on slowbooks .... favourite will lose from time to time, and on lower odds you can bet more. if you win you will not go up as much and if you lose you will lose a lot of money on slow bookie..
 
i think this approach would benefit arber and bookie. i have yet to find a bookie who would test this theory though.

if i was trader, i would try this. i would make default bet limit on odds under 1.5 up to 1000€ (huge bets) and i would make default bet limit for underdogs (odds above 2.0) to let's say maximum 200€ or even less, a 100€. that way, you can't bet a lot on underdogs, but you can bet a lot on favorites. it's a win win for bookie and arber.
Now  havent tried this myself but I remember reading an article about how betting on all big dominant teams to win every match in their league or cups  would bring a small profit in the end of the season.
Teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Juventus, Olympiakos etc.
I would try it now but Im afraid of "sold" matches, lots of rumours for Olympiakos doing it near the end of every season.
Probably next season, for the least I will monitor it.
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Re: Betfair

Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:24 pm

6.5% comission also will be in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus >:(
There are a lot of bonushunters and arbers in these countries.
Many of them think about... No, not to go out from Betfair.
But add one more exchange. Many of them will understand: it's possible to work not only at Betfair.
dr
drhoo

Re: Betfair

Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:35 pm

vinciguerra wrote: i don't want to be mean, but re-think what you're saying here. it's completely flawed and shows you haven't really understood the basics. In the long term whether odds are 1.01 or 1000 doesn't matter: the slow book will lose money.
i don't think that's necessarily true. i mean, why arb then, if gambling is such a 100% winning tactics?

honestly, you don't make any sense.... this means the only mistake gamblers make, is they do not bet singles ....when you bet singles, it doens't even matter what you bet, you will win in the long run?
Last edited by drhoo on Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Betfair

Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:10 am

Vinciguerra is right. If you bet on value, you will win money over time, no matter the odds.
To simplify, imagine you throw coin and have odds 2.01 on heads. You will win money if you bet on heads every time over period of time. Because 2.01 is value while real odd is 2.0.
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Re: Betfair

Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:11 pm

i have tryed that with the bot at Betfair. I setled the bot (in simualtion) to bet on home side the odds was beetween 2,06 and 2,10! After three months I was in big minus! I think that this strategie dont work because so many match are fixed (much more then we think)
dr
drhoo

Re: Betfair

Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:16 pm

i don't know... inevitably? why don't we make the greatest tipster service ever then?
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Re: Betfair

Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:20 pm

milord wrote: please lets not use sentences without knowing all d truth

its not written anywhere that after 100000 tosses of coin if u bet heads @2,01 u will be in positive so lets not abuse maths
sorry milord, i don't want to be rude, but maybe you yourself should not use sentences without knowing the truth and stop abusing math.

if you toss a coin 100.000 times and you get paid at 2.01, I will bet all of my life savings you will be positive. The chance of you not being in profit is impossible. even with a lot! less coin tosses you will be in profit every single time.

so no, just betting singles won't make you a profit, just betting value will. people arb because it's not always clear (but sometimes it is very much!) what and where value is. if you arb, it doesn't matter if you're wrong, you will make a (smaller) profit regardless.
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Re: Betfair

Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:24 pm

tarzan wrote: i have tryed that with the bot at Betfair. I setled the bot (in simualtion) to bet on home side the odds was beetween 2,06 and 2,10! After three months I was in big minus! I think that this strategie dont work because so many match are fixed (much more then we think)
And what did you expect? Why do you think such bets held value?
dr
drhoo

Re: Betfair

Tue Jan 28, 2014 1:33 pm

also, do odds ever go above probability for that event? i mean, if coin flip is 50% probable, will odds ever go above 2.0, or exactly 2.0 for that matter? usually, odds <<< probability

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