Arbusers

Congratulations on the successful exit.
It is always more transparent to announce your actions the day you do them.

i bought today 8:00 at average price 50100 usd and last month at 54000 at maker/taker fee VIP 2 0.0775% /0.0650%
(and i have two tickets for bybit VIP2 membership for 30 days to first two users who will want, can contact me)

This is to inform you, that today I sold the remaining 15% of my BTC portfolio at approximately $60700.

The reasoning behind my decision:

1. It seems to me the market is in a huge distribution phase that started in March. The length of this distribution is adequate for a market top.
2. Technically, I do not have any confluence to decide for a bullish or a bearish scenario. Maybe the bearish scenario has a slight lead. I am not able to read the market is a deterministic way. Because of this, I prefer taking all profits to the bag instead of jeopardising them.
3. All situation as described in my June 17th post remains intact.

I am still not able to determine if March was the top of the cycle or simply a very important top. I am watching the market closely, like I always do, and if my analysis shows a favourable entry point, I will gladly use it. It is important to say, this entry point might happen tomorrow, or in some years time. Everything is on the cards.

I hope you enjoyed this journey, and you were able to profit from the analysis that I offered for free, from my heart.
Some of the posts I made are distillates of wisdom and experience that I gained after decades of efforts. I am asking you to re-read this thread, and the thread of the previous Bitcoin cycle, as they will contribute to your development as a human and as an investor.

Good luck!



Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

Thank you so much for all the insights and analysis you have shared with us throughout this journey. It's been an incredible experience, and the profits have been beyond anything I expected. I'm deeply grateful for the wisdom and experience you've distilled into these posts. Your guidance has been invaluable, and I’ll definitely be revisiting this thread, as well as the previous one, to continue learning and growing.
I was always looking forward to your new posts as they made this journey feel like a real Odyssey, full of moments of euphoria and lessons in strategy. Looking forward to following along with your future insights..thanks for everything!!!!!

@arbusers

I was eager to read the final decision on your remaining holdings. Thank you for the ethos, the transparency, the philosophy, the strategy, and all the insights subtly woven throughout.

Speaking of the Olympics, your work truly deserves a medal and has forever changed the ceiling for my own work.

Thanks also to everyone else who participated in the tread. Hope this journey to be continued...

Personally did everything wrong in previous cycle and lost all profits due to my greed and inexperience. However, in this cycle i closely followed all your entry and exit signals and results were more than descent.

Really hope there will be more threads like this one in the future. If not, this thread will always be remembered as the best ever thread for me.

Many many special thanks for sharing your descent knowledge, especially for free. Really appreciated your time and dedication spend during this journey. It is not common nowadays to give knowledge for free.

When Arnold once asked ''What is the secret to success'', he replied ''Give something back. No matter what path you take, give back to your community''.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyhOmBPtGNM

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:55 pm

This is to inform you, that today I sold the remaining 15% of my BTC portfolio at approximately $60700.

The reasoning behind my decision:

1. It seems to me the market is in a huge distribution phase that started in March. The length of this distribution is adequate for a market top.
2. Technically, I do not have any confluence to decide for a bullish or a bearish scenario. Maybe the bearish scenario has a slight lead. I am not able to read the market is a deterministic way. Because of this, I prefer taking all profits to the bag instead of jeopardising them.
3. All situation as described in my June 17th post remains intact.

I am still not able to determine if March was the top of the cycle or simply a very important top. I am watching the market closely, like I always do, and if my analysis shows a favourable entry point, I will gladly use it. It is important to say, this entry point might happen tomorrow, or in some years time. Everything is on the cards.

I hope you enjoyed this journey, and you were able to profit from the analysis that I offered for free, from my heart.
Some of the posts I made are distillates of wisdom and experience that I gained after decades of efforts. I am asking you to re-read this thread, and the thread of the previous Bitcoin cycle, as they will contribute to your development as a human and as an investor.

Good luck!



Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

thank you for sharing your knowledge, personally I have always taken inspiration from you for years and it has been indispensable for my financial choices. I think we are living in a strange period, I feel like we are in a sort of limbo, where every decision made or the opposite taken , both are mistake. I think that there are always opportunities out there even in an high markets, you just have to find them.
I am convinced that you will come back here again when new opportunities arise
thank you

Many thanks and respect from me also for sharing all this with us , also many thanks to all the members that contributed
to this awesome and valuable thread..
What a journey it was!!
Looking forward for the next one

PS Good luck to all (incl me) who still sail in the rough crypto seas

I would also like to show my gratitude for being so open and sharing this valuable information. Starting from my arbing career 10y ago, ending with investing topics where BTC strategy has been most lucrative for me.

But the big question is....where do you currently allocate your funds? BTC is sold, PFE is sold. Are you chasing some cheap Greek stocks? Sitting on cash like Warren Buffet?

guys you speak like bull ended.

bull season not even started!

'i'm not genius ''enough'' to try to time the market.
i just hodl.

bitcoin may crash after 17-18 aug but all these crashes will be temporarily. real bull should start in q4 probably around november.

future of bitcoin is more bright then a few months bull.

you took a big risk by selling oyur bitcoin.
where you keep your money now?
usdt tether?
under bed?
banks? you can't trust banks.

bitcoin is seperation of state and money

Sonny wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 14, 2024 11:39 am

guys you speak like bull ended.

bull season not even started!

'i'm not genius ''enough'' to try to time the market.
i just hodl.

bitcoin may crash after 17-18 aug but all these crashes will be temporarily. real bull should start in q4 probably around november.

future of bitcoin is more bright then a few months bull.

you took a big risk by selling oyur bitcoin.
where you keep your money now?
usdt tether?
under bed?
banks? you can't trust banks.

bitcoin is seperation of state and money

Nobody can predict the future!
Bull season may already over or may we 've seen nothing yet
Rational thinking dictates risk management
Personally i have sold approx 30% of my crypto bankroll into both stablecoins and fiat

I will also once again say many thank you for this amazing thread and journey you have shared with us, hopefully just one cycle and not the end.

Now when the stocks and cryptos you have shared with us are sold, then I’m also curious what you do with your funds right now.

Mainly cash and waiting for new opportunities?

I would like to thank you guys for your good words.

I see that you make some legitimate questions, but I believe I already answered. I don't claim having Pope's infallibility and I do not believe in any infallibility including Pope's. If the market keeps climbing and you manage to make more profits, I will be very happy for you.

As I mentioned some months ago:

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:09 am

If I am wrong and price keeps climbing much higher, I will have to fight the man in the mirror for not taking the most favourable decision. This is a psychological game that I can play and I m preparing my self for years exactly for this game. As I explained in the past, in the markets I compete with my self and not others. This is because I have no influence over the will of others, but I have all the power over my own will.

As I already mentioned several times, I can't determine if the bull market is finished or not. i never declared this bull market being over. I will need more data and time to determine what is the phase that we are in. So far, data and time are both inadequate.

Finally, this thread is about Bitcoin and I don't want to mix other investments here.

guys,

bitcoin is not an investment.

bitcoin is seperation of state and money.

don't treat bitcoin like an investment or we'Ll end up like slaves.

humanity will chosee between cbdcs and bitcoin in a near future.

humanity will chose between freedom and slavery.

Why I Sold 95% of My Bitcoin

I started selling Bitcoin on August 2, 2024, when the unemployment rate in the USA rose to 4.3%. A sharp increase in unemployment in the USA has always been followed by a recession.

Presidential election years, when the current president of the USA is running for a new term, have been some of the most profitable years for the S&P 500 since 1950. On average, the S&P 500 rises by about 15% in these years. However, in July this year, Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race. Presidential election years, when the incumbent president is not running for a new term, are profitable for the S&P 500 by less than 2%.

Since March 2024, the S&P 500 has been setting new highs, while Bitcoin has been setting lower highs and lower lows during the same period. A similar scenario occurred in 2019 when the Fed started lowering interest rates. I believe that Bitcoin is currently in a similar period as it was in 2019. In 2019, Bitcoin fell in the second half of the year.

I also have my own Bitcoin model that signals when Bitcoin is in a selling zone, but this model does not suggest selling Bitcoin, even though some indicators suggest selling a certain percentage of Bitcoin. Simply put, there was no mania. In the crypto world, there haven't been many new naive people in the last two years. New naive people mostly buy altcoins and trigger an altseason. Bitcoin dominance has been rising for two years. When interest rates are high, people speculate less with risky investments. Personally, I don't believe we can have a true altseason with high interest rates. And only a true altseason can trigger my model to start suggesting selling Bitcoin (I need naive people to buy my positions).

My Plan: If Bitcoin does not fall below $50k and we reach a new high by the summer of 2025, and at the same time unemployment does not rise, and the Fed indeed starts lowering interest rates, and inflation remains below 3%, then I will convert 10% of my profit made by holding Bitcoin into new altcoin trends. However, I also need to see that new people are massively entering the crypto world again.

Personally, I believe that it is currently better to hold the S&P 500 than Bitcoin because we are slowly entering a period where it will become more clear whether a recession can threaten financial markets. And as we know from history, Bitcoin starts falling before the S&P 500.