Is the timeframe changed?
And is it with the intention to buy at a later stage with lower prices or with the thought that this cycle might have topped?
Thanks again for all the updates
Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
- Lumberjack
- Has experience
- Karma: 10
Post
And is it with the intention to buy at a later stage with lower prices or with the thought that this cycle might have topped?
Thanks again for all the updates
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
And is it with the intention to buy at a later stage with lower prices or with the thought that this cycle might have topped?
Thanks again for all the updates
- ex-hft
- Has experience
- Karma: 14
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
@arbusers, you're such a mensch for giving all the details of this trade rather than just concluding with "aha I was right" like so many people do.
- Eleftherios
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 2
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
What changed so fundamentally in 2 days to sell an additional 45% of the portfolio on the fathers' day?
I wanted to check market sentiment after your post and CNBC had the following picture. Shouldn't the conveyed message in the article be positive on BTC to support such a big portfolio sell off?
What about the apathy on crypto from the outside world? No one has mentioned crypto to me since March. It looks more like a boredom zone.
With the emergent tone of your post it's normal to loose bearings on where we are in the cycle. Is this a cycle top a pre cycle top or a mid top?
Thanks for all...
I wanted to check market sentiment after your post and CNBC had the following picture. Shouldn't the conveyed message in the article be positive on BTC to support such a big portfolio sell off?
What about the apathy on crypto from the outside world? No one has mentioned crypto to me since March. It looks more like a boredom zone.
With the emergent tone of your post it's normal to loose bearings on where we are in the cycle. Is this a cycle top a pre cycle top or a mid top?
Thanks for all...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
arbusers
- Administrator
- Contact:
- Karma: 648
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I will now describe my thinking process for selling 85% of my Bitcoin portfolio. I believe this post is important and it worths reading and analysing line by line. Don’t take it lightly. Unfortunately it is not possible to keep it short.
Here are the main reasons why I decided to sell the majority of my portfolio:
1. Bitcoin price got into the price range I designated since the start of the cycle, 1 and a half year earlier than expected. This created uncertainty for me, as I am not able to interpret the market in a rational way and according to my knowledge and experience.
If I am wrong and price keeps climbing much higher, I will have to fight the man in the mirror for not taking the most favourable decision. This is a psychological game that I can play and I m preparing my self for years exactly for this game. As I explained in the past, in the markets I compete with my self and not others. This is because I have no influence over the will of others, but I have all the power over my own will.
If I am right, I will glorify my self, to my self. I will be alive for the next round, from a much wealthier position than before, no matter what that round will be.
2. Unanimously, all big Youtube and X accounts are all together signalling the end of July as the next break up point upwards. They use various explanations and arguments, that I find very weak. It is only words, and not something that can be supported by tangible facts or an analysis of any kind (Technical, Elliott Wave, etc). In this field, words are cheap, they are fugazi, they are the ash in the eyes of the guileless investor. Being a contrarian I know that when everyone believes the same, it is usually the opposite that happens.
3. Bitcoin made a top (not sure if it is THE top) on March the 13th 2024. Since that day, the SP500 advanced 5%, but Bitcoin lost 11% until today (June 17th). This a divergence that can’t be ignored, not only because of its width, but because of its length. When I study the Bitcoin and the SP500 correlation, I am noticing that all technical Bitcoin tops came 6 months before the SP500 tops. This is because Bitcoin is more sensitive and more speculative compared to the stock markets. Thus, it can be used as a blue print for what might come soon. We are already 3 months deep in this divergence, and again, I can’t ignore it.
4. Speaking of the SP500, I am convinced that we see a Potemkin village. The majority of the stocks is bleeding but the index is running up and up, day by day. This is because the SP500 is kept hostage of 3 stocks, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft. The vast majority of all stock holders are losing money, but the market is advancing to new highs. This reminds me of the 2001 top, when most stocks were bleeding but the market was keep running because of Cisco. In the end, Cisco collapsed and followed the example of the rest of the market. Well, in my eyes, today’s Cisco is Nvidia. Abraham Lincoln once said, ‘’You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”
5. There is a narrative, this one proved by data and statistics, that all election years are green. Have a look at the public domain and this is now a Gospel. Because it is a Gospel, it is again unanimously accepted by all market participants and that makes me worry. This narrative could be very well overturned simply because the next POTUS might be someone the system doesn’t like. These US elections will be polarised and the stakes are the highest ever. Because of the highest stakes, the system is ready to sacrifice a lot hoping for future gains.
6. Technically speaking, I am noticing negative RSI divergences on the weekly timeframe. The top of March did not have the characteristics of a classic Bitcoin blow off top. It was milder and the majority of metrics did not flash as a top. This again created instability for me as I can’t interpret the market according to my knowledge and experience. I do not have a concrete scenario, backed by evidence and data, that would support a price path, up or down. So for me the March top is an important top, but I can’t really determine if it was THE top, or simply an important top. If it was the top, then I m perfectly fine. If it wasn’t the top, then who knows, maybe the market gives me a new opportunity. We have 1 and a half year until the end of the 4 year cycle and if the bull market resumes from here, it would bring the Bitcoin price to unimaginable levels. Again, I can’t be lured by these unimaginable levels, because if these levels do not come, the desperation and disappointment of market participants will be immense, and then everyone will see the abyss under their legs. I prefer not looking at the abyss, because as Nietzsche puts it, ‘’if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you’’.
You, my beloved forum members might ask, what about the flags, the Elliott Wave counts, and the rest of the T.A you presented so far. As I monotonically repeat in this thread, I reserve the right to change my opinion at any point in time when the charts dictate me to do so according to my knowledge and judgement. I am blending everything and I am not using a formulaic approach to make a decision. If I wanted a formula, I should go back to Youtube and X, where they can give me lots of formulas that worked perfectly in the past, but they won’t work in the future.
And what about the 15% of my Bitcoin portfolio that I still hold? This will be my safety net if the world as we know it collapses. And even if Bitcoin price collapses, these 15% are bought very near the market cycle bottom and I can absorb the pain. If prices go to the unimaginable heights I spoke before, then they will also be welcomed with happiness and joy.
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
Here are the main reasons why I decided to sell the majority of my portfolio:
1. Bitcoin price got into the price range I designated since the start of the cycle, 1 and a half year earlier than expected. This created uncertainty for me, as I am not able to interpret the market in a rational way and according to my knowledge and experience.
If I am wrong and price keeps climbing much higher, I will have to fight the man in the mirror for not taking the most favourable decision. This is a psychological game that I can play and I m preparing my self for years exactly for this game. As I explained in the past, in the markets I compete with my self and not others. This is because I have no influence over the will of others, but I have all the power over my own will.
If I am right, I will glorify my self, to my self. I will be alive for the next round, from a much wealthier position than before, no matter what that round will be.
2. Unanimously, all big Youtube and X accounts are all together signalling the end of July as the next break up point upwards. They use various explanations and arguments, that I find very weak. It is only words, and not something that can be supported by tangible facts or an analysis of any kind (Technical, Elliott Wave, etc). In this field, words are cheap, they are fugazi, they are the ash in the eyes of the guileless investor. Being a contrarian I know that when everyone believes the same, it is usually the opposite that happens.
3. Bitcoin made a top (not sure if it is THE top) on March the 13th 2024. Since that day, the SP500 advanced 5%, but Bitcoin lost 11% until today (June 17th). This a divergence that can’t be ignored, not only because of its width, but because of its length. When I study the Bitcoin and the SP500 correlation, I am noticing that all technical Bitcoin tops came 6 months before the SP500 tops. This is because Bitcoin is more sensitive and more speculative compared to the stock markets. Thus, it can be used as a blue print for what might come soon. We are already 3 months deep in this divergence, and again, I can’t ignore it.
4. Speaking of the SP500, I am convinced that we see a Potemkin village. The majority of the stocks is bleeding but the index is running up and up, day by day. This is because the SP500 is kept hostage of 3 stocks, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft. The vast majority of all stock holders are losing money, but the market is advancing to new highs. This reminds me of the 2001 top, when most stocks were bleeding but the market was keep running because of Cisco. In the end, Cisco collapsed and followed the example of the rest of the market. Well, in my eyes, today’s Cisco is Nvidia. Abraham Lincoln once said, ‘’You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”
5. There is a narrative, this one proved by data and statistics, that all election years are green. Have a look at the public domain and this is now a Gospel. Because it is a Gospel, it is again unanimously accepted by all market participants and that makes me worry. This narrative could be very well overturned simply because the next POTUS might be someone the system doesn’t like. These US elections will be polarised and the stakes are the highest ever. Because of the highest stakes, the system is ready to sacrifice a lot hoping for future gains.
6. Technically speaking, I am noticing negative RSI divergences on the weekly timeframe. The top of March did not have the characteristics of a classic Bitcoin blow off top. It was milder and the majority of metrics did not flash as a top. This again created instability for me as I can’t interpret the market according to my knowledge and experience. I do not have a concrete scenario, backed by evidence and data, that would support a price path, up or down. So for me the March top is an important top, but I can’t really determine if it was THE top, or simply an important top. If it was the top, then I m perfectly fine. If it wasn’t the top, then who knows, maybe the market gives me a new opportunity. We have 1 and a half year until the end of the 4 year cycle and if the bull market resumes from here, it would bring the Bitcoin price to unimaginable levels. Again, I can’t be lured by these unimaginable levels, because if these levels do not come, the desperation and disappointment of market participants will be immense, and then everyone will see the abyss under their legs. I prefer not looking at the abyss, because as Nietzsche puts it, ‘’if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you’’.
You, my beloved forum members might ask, what about the flags, the Elliott Wave counts, and the rest of the T.A you presented so far. As I monotonically repeat in this thread, I reserve the right to change my opinion at any point in time when the charts dictate me to do so according to my knowledge and judgement. I am blending everything and I am not using a formulaic approach to make a decision. If I wanted a formula, I should go back to Youtube and X, where they can give me lots of formulas that worked perfectly in the past, but they won’t work in the future.
And what about the 15% of my Bitcoin portfolio that I still hold? This will be my safety net if the world as we know it collapses. And even if Bitcoin price collapses, these 15% are bought very near the market cycle bottom and I can absorb the pain. If prices go to the unimaginable heights I spoke before, then they will also be welcomed with happiness and joy.
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
- cortomaltese
- Pro
- Karma: 33
Post
Needless to say that even by taking profits still you take risk (though smaller than not taking in anticipation of better selling prices) .
Once more i give you my credits and my thanks for sharing all these with us.
Since you are now (almost) off the market can you give us your average sell price ?
Thanks again
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Big decision you made .. let me tell you this!arbusers wrote: ↑Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:09 amI will now describe my thinking process for selling 85% of my Bitcoin portfolio. I believe this post is important and it worths reading and analysing line by line. Don’t take it lightly. Unfortunately it is not possible to keep it short.
Here are the main reasons why I decided to sell the majority of my portfolio:
1. Bitcoin price got into the price range I designated since the start of the cycle, 1 and a half year earlier than expected. This created instability for me, as I am not able to interpret the market in a rational way and according to my knowledge and experience.
If I am wrong and price keeps climbing much higher, I will have to fight the man in the mirror for not taking the most favourable decision. This is a psychological game that I can play and I m preparing my self for years exactly for this game. As I explained in the past, in the markets I compete with my self and not others. This is because I have no influence over the will of others, but I have all the power over my own will.
If I am right, I will glorify my self, to my self. I will be alive for the next round, from a much wealthier position than before, no matter what that round will be.
2. Unanimously, all big Youtube and X accounts are all together signalling the end of July as the next break up point upwards. They use various explanations and arguments, that I find very weak. It is only words, and not something that can be supported by tangible facts or an analysis of any kind (Technical, Elliott Wave, etc). In this field, words are cheap, they are fugazi, they are the ash in the eyes of the guileless investor. Being a contrarian I know that when everyone believes the same, it is usually the opposite that happens.
3. Bitcoin made a top (not sure if it is THE top) on March the 13th 2024. Since that day, the SP500 advanced 5%, but Bitcoin lost 11% until today (June 17th). This a divergence that can’t be ignored, not only because of its width, but because of its length. When I study the Bitcoin and the SP500 correlation, I am noticing that all technical Bitcoin tops came 6 months before the SP500 tops. This is because Bitcoin is more sensitive and more speculative compared to the stock markets. Thus, it can be used as a blue print for what might come soon. We are already 3 months deep in this divergence, and again, I can’t ignore it.
4. Speaking of the SP500, I am convinced that we see a Potemkin village. The majority of the stocks is bleeding but the index is running up and up, day by day. This is because the SP500 is kept hostage of 3 stocks, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft. The vast majority of all stock holders are losing money, but the market is advancing to new highs. This reminds me of the 2001 top, when most stocks were bleeding but the market was keep running because of Cisco. In the end, Cisco collapsed and followed the example of the rest of the market. Well, in my eyes, today’s Cisco is Nvidia. Abraham Lincoln once said, ‘’You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”
5. There is a narrative, this one proved by data and statistics, that all election years are green. Have a look at the public domain and this is now a Gospel. Because it is a Gospel, it is again unanimously accepted by all market participants and that makes me worry. This narrative could be very well overturned simply because the next POTUS might be someone the system doesn’t like. These US elections will be polarised and the stakes are the highest ever. Because of the highest stakes, the system is ready to sacrifice a lot hoping for future gains.
6. Technically speaking, I am noticing negative RSI divergences on the weekly timeframe. The top of March did not have the characteristics of a classic Bitcoin blow off top. It was milder and the majority of metrics did not flash as a top. This again created instability for me as I can’t interpret the market according to my knowledge and experience. I do not have a concrete scenario, backed by evidence and data, that would support a price path, up or down. So for me the March top is an important top, but I can’t really determine if it was THE top, or simply an important top. If it was the top, then I m perfectly fine. If it wasn’t the top, then who knows, maybe the market gives me a new opportunity. We have 1 and a half year until the end of the 4 year cycle and if the bull market resumes from here, it would bring the Bitcoin price to unimaginable levels. Again, I can’t be lured by these unimaginable levels, because if these levels do not come, the desperation and disappointment of market participants will be immense, and then everyone will see the abyss under their legs. I prefer not looking at the abyss, because as Nietzsche puts it, ‘’if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you’’.
You, my beloved forum members might ask, what about the flags, the Elliott Wave counts, and the rest of the T.A you presented so far. As I monotonically repeat in this thread, I reserve the right to change my opinion at any point in time when the charts dictate me to do so according to my knowledge and judgement. I am blending everything and I am not using a formulaic approach to make a decision. If I wanted a formula, I should go back to Youtube and X, where they can give me lots of formulas that worked perfectly in the past, but they won’t work in the future.
And what about the 15% of my Bitcoin portfolio that I still hold? This will be my safety net if the world as we know it collapses. And even if Bitcoin price collapses, these 15% are bought very near the market cycle bottom and I can absorb the pain. If prices go to the unimaginable heights I spoke before, then they will also be welcomed with happiness and joy.
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
Needless to say that even by taking profits still you take risk (though smaller than not taking in anticipation of better selling prices) .
Once more i give you my credits and my thanks for sharing all these with us.
Since you are now (almost) off the market can you give us your average sell price ?
Thanks again
-
apoel81
- Pro
- Karma: 44
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
This thread is a pure goldmine!
Many thanks mate for your efforts and discipline. Please let us know you ever decide to buy some btc back in this cycle. Many thanks once again.
Many thanks mate for your efforts and discipline. Please let us know you ever decide to buy some btc back in this cycle. Many thanks once again.
- CraigD
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 0
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Many thanks for your updates, appreciate your detail. When you buy btc again please update on here if possible.
Cheers
Craig
Cheers
Craig
- jagas
- To become a Pro
- Karma: 13
- adamson smith
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 0
-
arbusers
- Administrator
- Contact:
- Karma: 648
- cortomaltese
- Pro
- Karma: 33
Post
And maybe what i will say is outside the subject of this thread but check the odds for Trump's win after the shooting ..
The market emotionally reacted to this and odds for Trump's win plummeted (from around 1.65 , are currently in the 1.45-1.5 region) but emotions rarely go together with smart decisions
I don't know who will win in the end these elections but to me laying Trump's win right now seems veeeeery lucrative
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Indeed! And possibly this will create good opportunities to exploit for those who seek them with clear mind...
And maybe what i will say is outside the subject of this thread but check the odds for Trump's win after the shooting ..
The market emotionally reacted to this and odds for Trump's win plummeted (from around 1.65 , are currently in the 1.45-1.5 region) but emotions rarely go together with smart decisions
I don't know who will win in the end these elections but to me laying Trump's win right now seems veeeeery lucrative
- adamson smith
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 0
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
In essence, these emotionally driven market movements might offer profitable opportunities for those who can analyze the situation calmly and strategically.cortomaltese wrote: ↑Mon Jul 15, 2024 1:12 pmIndeed! And possibly this will create good opportunities to exploit for those who seek them with clear mind...
And maybe what i will say is outside the subject of this thread but check the odds for Trump's win after the shooting ..
The market emotionally reacted to this and odds for Trump's win plummeted (from around 1.65 , are currently in the 1.45-1.5 region) but emotions rarely go together with smart decisions
I don't know who will win in the end these elections but to me laying Trump's win right now seems veeeeery lucrative
- Sonny
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 18
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
guys,
don't sell in a bull market.
you just hodl.
that's it.
don't sell in a bull market.
you just hodl.
that's it.
-
arbusers
- Administrator
- Contact:
- Karma: 648
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
It's been 1 and a half month since I sold the biggest part of my Bitcoin positions and I am coming back with an update for you guys.
Last Sunday we had the print of the weekly candlestick. As you can see in the attached graph, it was a Dragonfly Doji. The Dragonfly Doji is a signal of a potential reversal with the open, close, and high prices virtually the same. After an upward trend, a dragonfly doji indicates a potential price drop, which can be confirmed if the following candlestick moves down. After a downward trend, this doji indicates a potential move up, if confirmed by the following candlestick.
In today's reality we had a Dragonfly Doji after an upward trend, and it is currently followed by a red candlestick. Of course, anything could happen until Sunday night, but if the situation is not changed rapidly and abruptly, we will soon have the confirmation indicating lower prices ahead.
In addition, there is a well camouflaged weekly RSI negative divergence indicating that price might be moving lower. Because of the current RSI price being high, if this divergence gets released, the price will drop swiftly. The negative divergence on the daily time frame is very much obvious and not hidden at all.
In the graph I am highlighting the beginning of September as being a strong support area. This is because the descending megaphone meets the support of the ETF announcement top. If this area holds, then we can say the bull market is not over yet. But if this area is broken, then I am afraid we can declare the end of this Bitcoin cycle.
Summing up the situation, I can not say for sure where we stand in the cycle. I need more data, more market structure and of course more time to determine. It could be ended, or it could continue. But putting everything on the scale I conclude that my current position is prudent.
Of course, as I always say...
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
Last Sunday we had the print of the weekly candlestick. As you can see in the attached graph, it was a Dragonfly Doji. The Dragonfly Doji is a signal of a potential reversal with the open, close, and high prices virtually the same. After an upward trend, a dragonfly doji indicates a potential price drop, which can be confirmed if the following candlestick moves down. After a downward trend, this doji indicates a potential move up, if confirmed by the following candlestick.
In today's reality we had a Dragonfly Doji after an upward trend, and it is currently followed by a red candlestick. Of course, anything could happen until Sunday night, but if the situation is not changed rapidly and abruptly, we will soon have the confirmation indicating lower prices ahead.
In addition, there is a well camouflaged weekly RSI negative divergence indicating that price might be moving lower. Because of the current RSI price being high, if this divergence gets released, the price will drop swiftly. The negative divergence on the daily time frame is very much obvious and not hidden at all.
In the graph I am highlighting the beginning of September as being a strong support area. This is because the descending megaphone meets the support of the ETF announcement top. If this area holds, then we can say the bull market is not over yet. But if this area is broken, then I am afraid we can declare the end of this Bitcoin cycle.
Summing up the situation, I can not say for sure where we stand in the cycle. I need more data, more market structure and of course more time to determine. It could be ended, or it could continue. But putting everything on the scale I conclude that my current position is prudent.
Of course, as I always say...
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- crypto data
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 6
Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
On friday I sold 95% of my BTC position at average price 62k $
-
