Arbusers

Lately, many people are speaking about the possibility of a nuclear war. What is the correct investing mindset when a doom scenario is ante portas?

If a nuclear war comes, then money will have little importance. What will count will be more tangible things, like food, drugs, cigarettes, guns and ammunition, ability to have certain medical services. On a second scale, electricity, ability to communicate etc. In this case, the price of almost every stock and commodity will be diminished until the surviving human kind comes back to a new order. It will make no real sense if you are rich or poor, so who will care about money?

If a nuclear war doesn't come, then, those who bought during the panic, will be awarded lavishly, for life.

So in the case of a clear and present danger of a nuclear strike, what I will do, is go all in.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 8:09 am

If a nuclear war comes, then money will have little importance. What will count will be more tangible things, like food, drugs, cigarettes, guns and ammunition, ability to have certain medical services. On a second scale, electricity, ability to communicate etc. In this case, the price of almost every stock and commodity will be diminished until the surviving human kind comes back to a new order. It will make no real sense if you are rich or poor, so who will care about money?

If a nuclear war doesn't come, then, those who bought during the panic, will be awarded lavishly, for life.

So in the case of a clear and present danger of a nuclear strike, what I will do, is go all in.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this matter. I also agree with this.
But I don't think this is something that can be easily foreseen. If any such event happens, it will happen to the surprise of all of us. So not sure how to detect this panic. Honestly I am not seeing panic right now. We will see what happens monday after Finland (and possibly Sweden) announce their bid to join NATO. But I don't think this itself is enough to cause a nuclear war.

I will start DCA over the following weeks , mainly BTC and ETH(70%) , and some XRP,DOT,SOL and ADA.

dejancg wrote: ↑

Sat May 14, 2022 2:58 pm

Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this matter. I also agree with this.
But I don't think this is something that can be easily foreseen. If any such event happens, it will happen to the surprise of all of us. So not sure how to detect this panic. Honestly I am not seeing panic right now. We will see what happens monday after Finland (and possibly Sweden) announce their bid to join NATO. But I don't think this itself is enough to cause a nuclear war.

All nuclear powers are rational thinkers. They will all need a proper justification in order to use their weapons. It is not an easy task to build a moral advantage against an enemy. It will require time and effort. This effort will leave a fingerprint that markets will detect. I never said a nuclear war is imminent but why not being ready for such an event?

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun May 15, 2022 3:02 pm

All nuclear powers are rational thinkers. They will all need a proper justification in order to use their weapons. It is not an easy task to build a moral advantage against an enemy. It will require time and effort. This effort will leave a fingerprint that markets will detect. I never said a nuclear war is imminent but why not being ready for such an event?

One of the rational thinkers is right now, in the year 2022, fighting Nazism.

I will now speak about the levels where I suspect my DDCA will take place.

So far Ι spoke a lot about a very well defined ascending channel that in reality, according to classic technical analysis, is a bearish formation. Ι spoke about potential price supports during the fall of BTC. It is now time to speak about the targets this formation indicates, and I will then blend these targets with other elements of technical analysis in order to identify a potential bottom.

The target this formation is indicating, derives from the poll of the channel, which is the left blue vertical line that you see in my graph. This pole is exactly equal with the right blue line, that starts from the day the channel broke and finishes to our potential target at approximately $19500.


This formation and these polls are very important and strong elements of classic technical analysis. They should not be taken lightly. At the same time, we notice a very strong support coming from the 2018 top, again standing at $19500.

At the same time, the 200 weeks Moving Average (purple line) is a very valid indication of the end of a bear market. In all BTC bear markets of the past, the 200 weeks moving average has been an important landmark. It now stands at $21850 but raises rapidly. This moving average is often penetrated by wicks.

So there you go, we have 3 important factors indicating a potential bottom between 19500 and 21850. But you already noticed in my graph, that the box of potential price targets are going down to $13500 price levels. This is because other indicators are flushing there. This is not the time to speak about them.

So you now have to build your own DDCA plan, to pick up your BTCs at the lowest possible level.

In all markets, it is a great mistake to be dogmatic. Dogmas are guarantees for failure. If markets shows something else, I will immediately change my plans and adopt accordingly.

What I say here are according to my investing mentality and strategy, which is mid to long term. Pretty much my goal is to catch the next cycle and exploit it to the maximum extend.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

I would like to comment some more in regards to the Bitcoin Dominance that currently stands at 44.6%. Over the last 10 days we witnessed the wreck of a number of altcoins. Ideally, we are expecting a much bigger Bitcoin Dominance in order to characterise this market healthy. The ''health level'', let me put it like this, should be at around 60 to 65%. Sh.tcoins do not bring any health in the market, but at the same time there are a number of altcoins that will be useful.

That said, as we are nearing the actual bottom of Bitcoin, I expect a sudden death for many altcoins. Many of them will be wrecked and we will not see them again. Suddenly, at an unknown time in future, the Bitcoin dominance will be skyrocketed to the levels of 60-65% within a time period of some days. What we have seen so far, is the wreck of shitcoins, and it remains to be seen, the wreck of altcoins of the periphery, and then the wreck of the altcoins of the core, like Cardano and similars. In the end, ETH will be wrecked to be brought back at an ETH/BTC level of 0.48 and lower.

Anything pegged to the USD or another currency will be questioned as trust comes into play.

We have seen these behaviours in the stock markets. Starting with SPACs, moving to Russell, then SP500 and in the end the taking down the Siscos. At this point in time I would be extra careful with all altcoins and ETH. I am not holding any. The prudent investor would look for BTC entry points and then ETH entry points.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

If you follow my threads about investing, you already know that I pay equal attention to the X axis, that is time. I spent thousands of hours researching and developing custom made metrics with the task of identifying important tops and bottoms. Already, these metrics served me well in identifying the top of April 21, but wasn't that good for reasons that I already explained, in finding the top of November 21.

Now I am trying to identify a very important bottom as an entry point, and this point will be combined with my over all DDCA strategy, in order to get into the market with the best safety nets and the best possibilities to gain profits mid to long term.

With the data that we have today, and once again let's not be dogmatic, my metrics are showing a very important bottom as we approach the end of May, until the beginning of July. Ideally, this bottom should be combined with a capitulation event, and a subsequent crash of the altcoins market. If materialised it will give me a lot of confidence that my entry points are good.

A big thank you for the analysis presented here. I thought I knew the very basics of TA, but obviously I am a kitty cat.
I understand why you selected this height of the green target box, but it's length is arbitrary. Could you explain why you selected the end of 2023 as the ending time of the box?
Again, thank you very much, and I really appreciate what you do.

crowned wrote: ↑

Fri May 20, 2022 4:23 pm

I understand why you selected this height of the green target box, but it's length is arbitrary. Could you explain why you selected the end of 2023 as the ending time of the box?

You are correct, it's length is arbitrary. There is no fib analogy and no clue why the DDCA period should be ended by the end of the year. TA is very accurate but it is not a God's will or verdict. There are questions with no answers. Frankly, I have no idea about the length of the green box with the data that I now have. I might be able to determine the end of the box when fresh data comes in.

Dear Arbuser, I agree about those levels, even though my analysis is completely different than yours.
I think that the main focus here should be institutional buys/sells, and these institutions need to close their order blocks. They lie just in those levels under the $20k.
Also, if you want perfect entry, look for B/R of structure on LTFs after the wick down to 17-18k levels. Also, I do not think that those bear markets of 4y are still in play. Simply bcs there are many more traders/investors in the game.
Also, 90% of those traders are retail traders, from which those institutions are taking juice. When you see a candle close below $28935 on W chart, expect $20k's. I wouldn't pay attention to Musks and Dorceys as they will tweet and react only on those critical indecision levels, to take retail Bitcoins.

@Srdjan990 thank you for your opinion.

I would like to speak about the ETHBTC analogy that helped me a lot in the previous bull run to maximise profits, by simply jumping from BTC to ETH and vice versa when one of these two bubbles became over inflated.

As described in a previous comment, we need to see a significant loss of value in the alt coin markets before the start of the next bull run. I do not consider ETH as an altcoin, and I categorise it as a blue chip, second to BTC. I have reasons to believe that ETH will outperform BTC in the long run. At least this is what the charts imply. But for now, I need ETH to bow before BTC. I need to see a capital flight from ETH to BTC that will inflate BTC's bubble.

So here is the graph:


Since the first support is broken, simple TA demands the analogy to go meet and test the next support. Ideally for me, this should happen at a lower price than 0.48. When I see that, then I will start thinking about a capitulation of ETH before BTC, and it will be an additional hint that we are closing to an important bottom that would be the starting point for the next bull run.

Notice, this analogy works complementary to the other criteria I already spoke about. It is not the main criterion. It will simply give me more confidence that my opinion and analysis is correct.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

I think that it's not smart to draw a structure with a diagonal line, and this market is clearly moving sideways for now. The break of this channel will show where the market is moving. In an uploaded photo, I market interesting zones.

I have spoken again about my custom made metrics, that I have spent 1000s of hours working on and developing, not to mention the dedication of the mental capacity. These metrics have been proved valuable as they helped me identify the real top of the previous market, to sell the total of my BTC position at $58300.

The same metrics are now flashing an important bottom on its way that would occur at the mid of June. I intent to build the vast of my BTC positions the day that will be labeled as the potential bottom of this cycle. These metrics are fluid, and would change slightly as we are approaching.

To be crystal clear, this is not against my DDCAing that will continue regardless. I m simply envisioning the day that my DDCA will come to a climax.

I would really love to know how do you do this metrics, graphs...., or if you don't want to share, or you don't have time to teach others, maybe you can give us some ways, concepts, to initiate by ourselves.

This is much more difficult than arb. When you arb, you see the differences, and bet on the correct side and that's it.You have the mathematical hope on your side. You have the weak law of large numbers on your side as well, so, you just have to put a maximum amount to bet depending on the money that you have. And, in the long haul you will win.

Of course there are a lot of aspects that you have to be capable as well, but, for a mathematical point of view, arb is simple. But, i still cannot understand how do you do this kind of metrics and graphs. I am not talking about BTC, but also about ASE, WTI, Shell, ETH...., i would really want to learn how do you do that, with this precision.

Thank you.