Arbusers

Just a quick reminder. There are more important things in life than making 100x gains, like friendship, being part of community, enjoying simple things... So don't take this whole situation too seriously and remember to take breaks! And in any case 2023 will probably be pretty boring year for both stocks and crypto but of course I could be wrong.

Thinking about BTC, I agree with the technical analysis, in that “if the environment were the same, then we should expect the price to rise”.

However - what really concerns me is whether there will still be enough buyers when interest rates keep rising.

If I can make some 5-8% by depositing money at the bank, does it make sense to buy BTC and earn no interest?

Time will tell.

As I said in a previous post, the price is not giving us enough data so far in order to make accurate predictions. I will now focus on the data we have and especially our loyal RSI in order to find where we stand.

I am noticing a positive divergence in the daily RSI starting from the June lows until the November low. This divergence is highlighted in the following graph with the 2 blue arrows.


But what happens when we switch to a higher time frame? Higher timeframes are more reliable. We notice exactly the same positive divergence in the weekly graph, as shown below.


Of course, RSI divergences, positive or negative could go on for a much longer period of time, and the longest they appear the strongest the following move. Notice the following negative divergence that started formatting when BTC price was just 35.000 and lasted 11 months.


And also, notice the monstrous negative monthly negative divergence that started in 2017 and finished in 2021. That was the loudest bell ringing the forthcoming bear market.


Bottom line, the positive divergence we currently experiencing is telling me we are close to the end of the bear market, and the beginning of the next bull.

I would like to remind you of the following post I did in June:

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:59 am

I would like to remind you a very popular phrase that I m sure you heard many times before:

Not your keys, not your bitcoin.

Allow me to explain the 2 reasons why you should follow this as a Gospel. I am sure you already know the 1st reason, but did you know the 2nd?

1st. If something goes wrong and your platform goes under, then it is unlikely that you recover your Bitcoins. I am sure most of crypto enthusiasts feel safety in Coinbase and Kraken, but what guarantee is there that nothing bad happens to them too? Do I have to speak about various investing schemes? I guess not. Lesson 1 of economics...wherever there is an interest rate, there is a risk.

2nd. I have been very vocal about a well known platform run by crooks. Even though they crossed the lines in many instances, the US decided not to jail the managers. Most probably, there are political and financial reasons for that. According to many people, this platform was selling Bitcoins it never had. Thus, they created artificial inflation in this asset. By getting your Bitcoin to your wallets, you stop them from creating Bitcoin they actually don't have. Thus, you help Bitcoin price go up, and clean the crypto sphere from people who should not be around.

During this bear market, BTC suffered a series of collapses that worked like domino. Luna>3AC>Celsius>Voyager>FTX and of course other minor collapses getting in and out of the frame.

Out of all these collapses there is no doubt that FTX was the bigger. And here is the crucial question. Which collapse triggered the smallest damage in BTC price? It was FTX with just 27% damage. Imagine the FTX bankruptcy happening at the beginning of the bear market, at 69.000.

In my view, the market absorbed the FTX pain without reflecting the magnitude of the event in the price. That tells me something. We might have even more collapses, but their reflection in the price will be diminished in terms of %. We are getting closer and closer to the next bull market.

And of course, do your won DD.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 9:14 am

I would like to remind you of the following post I did in June:

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:59 am

I would like to remind you a very popular phrase that I m sure you heard many times before:

Not your keys, not your bitcoin.

Allow me to explain the 2 reasons why you should follow this as a Gospel. I am sure you already know the 1st reason, but did you know the 2nd?

1st. If something goes wrong and your platform goes under, then it is unlikely that you recover your Bitcoins. I am sure most of crypto enthusiasts feel safety in Coinbase and Kraken, but what guarantee is there that nothing bad happens to them too? Do I have to speak about various investing schemes? I guess not. Lesson 1 of economics...wherever there is an interest rate, there is a risk.

2nd. I have been very vocal about a well known platform run by crooks. Even though they crossed the lines in many instances, the US decided not to jail the managers. Most probably, there are political and financial reasons for that. According to many people, this platform was selling Bitcoins it never had. Thus, they created artificial inflation in this asset. By getting your Bitcoin to your wallets, you stop them from creating Bitcoin they actually don't have. Thus, you help Bitcoin price go up, and clean the crypto sphere from people who should not be around.

During this bear market, BTC suffered a series of collapses that worked like domino. Luna>3AC>Celsius>Voyager>FTX and of course other minor collapses getting in and out of the frame.

Out of all these collapses there is no doubt that FTX was the bigger. And here is the crucial question. Which collapse triggered the smallest damage in BTC price? It was FTX with just 27% damage. Imagine the FTX bankruptcy happening at the beginning of the bear market, at 69.000.

In my view, the market absorbed the FTX pain without reflecting the magnitude of the event in the price. That tells me something. We might have even more collapses, but their reflection in the price will be diminished in terms of %. We are getting closer and closer to the next bull market.

And of course, do your won DD.

We totally agree! It's a fact we are getting closer day by day , however the definition of closer is critical! In my mind and the indicators i follow we may very well have up to a year or more of bearish and/or sideways action ! Is there a timeframe in yours? As always it will be greatly appreciated if shared !

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 4:36 pm

We totally agree! It's a fact we are getting closer day by day , however the definition of closer is critical! In my mind and the indicators i follow we may very well have up to a year or more of bearish and/or sideways action ! Is there a timeframe in yours? As always it will be greatly appreciated if shared !

As implied in a previous post, all technicals I know do not work. They are broken. Yes, I could draw some lines in the graphs, but their strength would be minimal. Thus, if successful, I would only be based on luck, and I would never do this.

I am also having a look at all Analysts and Chartists I trust, they are all confused, if not in complete silence.

I m not even able to find fibo analogies in the time axis. I do not have enough data from the market before seeing some structure formatting. There is no structure at this point in time. It is anarchy. With T.A and Elliot wave out, I can only follow the market sentiment at this stage. That is why I say, the time the FTX bomb exploded was very carefully selected.

When in doubt, zoom out, and this is what I did with the weekly and the monthly RSI. Both time frames indicate we are overdressed and the spring should have been relieved already, or very soon. Thus, I can't yet imply a price or time target, even though I know my position is much much better than most market participants.

It is called uncertainty.

Even though I am in the dark, I know I bought my BTC at a much lower price than 97-98% of market participants. If market continues to exist, I will be rewarded.

And of course, do your own DD.

If market continues to exist, I will be rewarded.

I can relate!
The only possible way i can think i would lose from my current positions is if the "market stopped existing" and sincerely believe
this stands for everybody buying right now!
Only way they are gonna lose long term is if this market collapses to non existence , however this possibility is not a zero one.. close to zero, very close i would say but not zero!

For me only one think is clear!

When we will get into recesion, biger money will start to come into bitcoin. Only after this even i expect bigger moves upwords.

But recesion may not be a bottom for bitcoin price. If FTX is the last big colaps in this bear market, we may alredy tach the bottom.

I would like to share an opinion which might be useful to some of you.
I have a very limited understanding of the specific dynamics of the crypto markets, and I’m not an expert on long-term technical analysis.

However, I do know sentiments expressed by a wide range of traders, over a wide range of instruments (for example, see posts by AQR):
1. Try to buy things which are cheap (fallen in price), and
2. Try to buy things when they are rising in price.

These sound a little contradictory, but they really aren’t. Mean reversion typically happens on a longer timeframe than momentum.
This is no crystal ball, of course, and yields risk-adjusted returns which are only as good as investing in equities, for example, when taken as a separate (market neutral) factor.
So while it’s not a “do this and make money” kind of advice, it does improve your chances.

In terms of actionable advice, it can be boiled down to “buy on the right side of the V”: when prices are dropping, wait for them to start going back up before you buy into whatever it is. In the case of BTC, I don’t think that you would be wrong to buy once the price rises above the 1 month moving average, for example. Let it drop whatever it drops, nobody knows how much. If you’re lucky, it will get really bad before you buy.
Then wait to see it rising for a while, to see that people are regaining their confidence. And then it’s a good time to join, on average, enjoying both the long term mean reversion, and the shorter term momentum.

As advisers like to say - not financial advice, do your own DD!

I don't track or try to read and predict the movement of BTC based on TA. Few of you want to time the market and have their chance to make small or good amount of money.
But what's the point of that, of course we all are driven by the greed, but Bitcoin is not like the stocks.

Right now, in my eyes the most important to follow is the fundamentals of Bitcoin mainly, because of the big value of it for us and world itself.

The changes around bitcoin and the adoption of the whole crypto eco-system is must watch at this time of the economic landscape.
If you have conviction in bitcoin and realize the real value and the impact which will cause to our broken society, theirs no good or bad moment to buy bitcoin.

Focus of the fundamental of Bitcoin and then you can try to make small satoshis from price movement.

probettor91 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:35 am

Focus of the fundamental of Bitcoin and then you can try to make small satoshis from price movement.

1) Fundaments of BTC are good, no one even speak here about fundaments, becouse advantages are obviose

2) As comunety of valu bettors, we also look for value investing (not daily, weakly or monthly trading).
For example
- Its not smart to put in BITCOIN when monthly BITCOIN RSI is over 90.
- its not smart to buy bitcoi when you see transaction fees are record high
- its not smart to buy bitcoin when you see record deposits of money into crypto exchanges from bank accounts
- its not smart to buy bitcoin when you see record withdraw of money from crypto exchanges to bank accounts
....................................

I m presenting my ideas on the BTC price with a simple and clean graph, it can't get simpler. I highlight the negative divergence that led to this brutal bear market, and the positive divergence that will lead to the next bull marker. I used the weekly timeframe to highlight the divergences, but in the daily timeframe it is also evident the RSI is our ally.

It's been a while Boss. Could we have some more thoughts?

Can we expect another crypto exchange to fill for bankruptcy

I m putting the pieces of the puzzle together, and even though I know I am repetitive, I still insist the bottom is most probably in. If not in, then we are extremely close in price and in time.

As previously mentioned, there is no doubt that FTX was the bigger collapse of all during this market causing the smallest damage in BTC price. It was followed by Blockfi bankruptcy that had 0 impact in the market. Quite the contrary, the price is positive these days. That tells me a lot of things. We are having bad news not reflected in the price. This indicates what the market sentiment is. You will not find the market sentiment in YouTubers or Twitters, not to mention sansculotte Pomp's newsletter. We are getting closer and closer to the next bull market.

Let's get back to our technicals and especially the RSI that is proved to be an ally.


We still have positive divergences in both daily and weekly time frames. The longer these divergences, the bigger the impact they will have in the price of BTC. In addition, the accumulation box is still intact and there is no indication having being broken any time soon. We are good, and well positioned, I am positive, most probably, the bottom is in.

This is also to inform you that I m invested at 120% of my desired amount. I added some more after the FTX collapse. The reason why I added more to my position, is because the opportunity is bigger.

And of course do your own DD.