BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Where to invest the surplus of funds
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6216
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:53 pm

The RSI resistance proves to be strong. It was not broken with that effort. Realistic chances for lower prices for BTC.

RSI level resistance.png
RSI level resistance.png (365.18 KiB) Viewed 1402 times

Do your own DD.
Eleftherios
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon May 09, 2022 10:13 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:25 am

A few weeks ago I conversed with an equities investment professional working for a firm in London. Our discussion shifted to TA and just because I was surprised by his viewpoint, I need to share his opinion exactly as expressed.

Quote
''There are technical indicators that are useful as a supplement to fundamental analysis. But “chart analysis” is like reading tea leaves. It’s promoted by the charlatans of finance. Trust me. There are 100+ people on Forbes who made billions in finance. Not a single one made money by detecting patterns by eyesight. To the extent it’s possible and truly technical, an algorithm by a quant firm would monetise it in milliseconds. Just stick with fundamental analysis. ''

As a newly fledged TA, I disagree with most of what was phrased but I would like to know the opinions of professional TAs in this forum.

Thanks
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6216
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Tue Dec 20, 2022 4:09 pm

I guess you are posting this in order to get my response even though you are not asking for it.
So I m referring you to the very first post of this thread where I said clearly that...

arbusers wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:44 am
I will use a blend of technical analysis, Elliott wave theory, behavioural investing, value investing and market sentiment. My investment mentality in cryptos, like stocks, is to understand the cycles of the market and try to get advantage of the circularity.

I m following 5 disciplines and I am highlighting the importance of the circularity of the market. It is not just T.A but a blend of many other things.

There is an ongoing debate between fundamentalists and chartists, and it goes on for decades. I will not say who is wrong and who is right, they both have strong and weak cards. I simply accept both and I m not rejecting any of them. Even though I studied fundamental analysis as part of value investing, I refuse to use is as a single tool. I also spent years and years to study and practice the other disciplines and it wouldn't be wise to let them go. If you have 5 weapons, you don't leave aside 4 of them because you think 1 of them is better than others. Keep all of them and one day they will prove their value. After all, what is the fundamental analysis of BTC? There is none. There is NO fundamental analysis in BTC, because this is its nature. It is not a stock. Do me a favour and ask the investment professional where is the fundamental analysis of BTC?

As previously mentioned, my first contact with T.A was with a Greek ship owner who was and still is a billionaire in the Forbes list. I m blessed.

In the summer of 21 I met another billionaire (again Forbes list) who humbly met me in Athens on his way to a Greek island. He is using just 2 disciplines. Market sentiment and the cycle theory. Nothing more.

All I am saying is there are many ways to make money, and I see no reason why someone should stick in just 1 of them. After all, ''who cares who wins?''

Lastly, I have enormous respect for people who have their own skin in the game. Risking their own hard earned capital. Coming out and raising their hands saying ''today I bought'' or ''today I sold''. It can't be more adamant than that.

Now can you explain what an investment professional is?
crypto data
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 6
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2022 1:24 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:30 pm

My final presentation.

1) I have already presented you the DCA model for the bitcoin price, which includes a potential recession - in the picture.. I give this model an index of 0.2

2) The next DCA model I built, measures the popularity of bitcoin on social media. I cannot present this model in graphic form in correlation with the price. This model currently suggests me a DCA to bitcoin of 23.42%. With this model, it may be that it will suggest a higher DCA at a higher BTC price. For example, on Twitter, people are still too interested in the topic around Bitcoin. I give this model an index of 0.2

3) All indicators point to a likely recession in 2023 or even 2024. As I observe, the bottom of the stock market is very much related to GDP and unemployment (I won't go into details). If the recession move into 2024 (which is less likely) I allow for the possibility that 2023 will be bullish for bitcoin like 2019. I give this model an index of 0.5. This indicator give 0% chance that we are at the bottom.

4) Additional indicators that I follow tell me that the bottom of bitcoin is close, but the bottom is not yet confirmed. These indicators tend to confirm a bottom when the bottom is already several weeks behind us. I give this factor an index of 0.1

Therefore, the whole matter together suggests that my DCA is 15.6%, at a price of $16,800 per btc.
Attachments
DCA resesion.png
DCA resesion.png (54.44 KiB) Viewed 1101 times
crypto data
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 6
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2022 1:24 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:33 pm

If it weren't for the threat of a recession, I would have followed my normal DCA model for BITCOIN much more – in the picture. This one says that at a price of $15,500 per bitcoin, I should already be 96% loaded with bitcoin

Anyway, I'm not buying ETH right now because the stats say so. I wouldn't "touch" Altcoins right now, even with a stick.

There are many signals that real bitcoin sellers are gone. The problem that can arise in a recession is the following. Tesla, which is highly dependent on low interest rates, may be forced to sell its bitcoins during a recession. This news can bring the price of bitcoin down a lot. As a result, the price may fall so low that Saylor will then have to sell .. and so on. So then everyone who is in bitcoin on leverage/credit can literally fall out of the game.
Attachments
DCA NO resesion.png
DCA NO resesion.png (40.32 KiB) Viewed 1100 times
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6216
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:03 pm

crypto data wrote:
Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:30 pm
2) The next DCA model I built, measures the popularity of bitcoin on social media. I cannot present this model in graphic form in correlation with the price. This model currently suggests me a DCA to bitcoin of 23.42%. With this model, it may be that it will suggest a higher DCA at a higher BTC price. For example, on Twitter, people are still too interested in the topic around Bitcoin. I give this model an index of 0.2

I would not trust any investment plan on Twitter and Youtube popularity for 2 reasons.

1. These figures are most probably doctored, as every ''content creator'' has any interest in the world to show he/she is popular. Bigger popularity > higher rates > more money.

2. The smelt and the shrimp pays attention to Twitter and Youtube, but the big fishes and above do not pay a sh.t. So these figures will give you an idea of what the headless chickens are thinking and nothing more. But on the other hand...even these headless chickens have a gravity in these markets.
crypto data
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 6
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2022 1:24 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:45 pm

arbusers wrote:
Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:03 pm
crypto data wrote:
Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:30 pm
2) The next DCA model I built, measures the popularity of bitcoin on social media. I cannot present this model in graphic form in correlation with the price. This model currently suggests me a DCA to bitcoin of 23.42%. With this model, it may be that it will suggest a higher DCA at a higher BTC price. For example, on Twitter, people are still too interested in the topic around Bitcoin. I give this model an index of 0.2

I would not trust any investment plan on Twitter and Youtube popularity for 2 reasons.

1. These figures are most probably doctored, as every ''content creator'' has any interest in the world to show he/she is popular. Bigger popularity > higher rates > more money.

2. The smelt and the shrimp pays attention to Twitter and Youtube, but the big fishes and above do not pay a sh.t. So these figures will give you an idea of what the headless chickens are thinking and nothing more. But on the other hand...even these headless chickens have a gravity in these markets.
ETH google trend helped me determine ATH for bitcoin in 2021. Of course, I paid much more attention to other indicators. I expected bitcoin's ATH to happen shortly after ETH google trend breaks the 2017 peak.
But I never expected that BITCOIN google trend , would beat the peak of 2017 in this last cycle.
In the next cycle, I do not expect the ETH google trend to exceed the 2021 peak.
I definitely believe that people need to lose considerable interest in bitcoin and ETH, on twitter, youtube, google,... in accumulate phase
A lot of social media interest in bitcoin/ETH has been lost in recent months. The FTX collapse temporarily raised this interest a bit, but it is now slowly calming down.
I expect even more bitcoin/ETH apathy from people in the coming months.
In any case, I will have to remove the DCA model for social networks, after I see that socially BITCOIN/ETH has already lost sufficient interest, because with this model it is much more difficult to measure the value of the BTC purchase price in my view
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6216
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon Jan 09, 2023 7:31 am

We discussed so many times about the importance of the RSI, and especially on higher time frames like the weekly. Yesterday night with the ending of the week a signal was flashed in the chart. The resistance coming from January 2021 is now broken. This resistance is so powerful for 3 reasons:
a. It is 2 years old already, a very long time frame for BTC (with a life span of just 13 years).
b. It is on the weekly time frame, not on the daily.
c. It has multiple confirming points that co-existed with important events.
If confirmed with the closing of this week on Sunday the 15th of January, then we will have a very strong indication that we entered the next bull market and the bottom is in. Have a look at the chart:

BTC newest.png
BTC newest.png (660.84 KiB) Viewed 712 times

It worths saying, the last time the RSI resistance was confirmed was when FTX collapsed. That tells me the date of the collapse was predetermined, as discussed in this thread back in the days. It also tells me that a major event will be again needed to invalidate the new flashing event in the chart.

And of course, like always, do your own Due Diligence, this is not a financial advise.
ex-hft
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 14
Posts: 220
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:30 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:18 pm

Thanks for the explanations @arbusers, this is always very interesting to see.
Just my two cents, which I hope that might be useful to someone here: it's better to invest late than early.
So assuming that this analysis is correct (which is very hard for me to predict, too many opposing reasons to say one thing or the other), and the bull market does start - I would personally wait for the price to start going higher before buying, not jump in in the hope that it does.
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6216
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:06 pm

ex-hft wrote:
Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:18 pm
not jump in in the hope that it does.

Hope, is Danger's Comforter. A key feature in human decision-making about the future. Let me quote Thucydides once again: ''Hope is by nature an expensive commodity, and those who are risking their all on one cast find out what it means only when they are already ruined''

So I use my analysis to reduce potential outcomes. After all, this is what are all about, my 5 disciplines in investing. In times and environments of uncertainty, you will never have all the info and all the data you require. When you have 100% of all the info, it is already too late.
ex-hft
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 14
Posts: 220
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:30 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon Jan 09, 2023 7:17 pm

arbusers wrote:
Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:06 pm
ex-hft wrote:
Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:18 pm
not jump in in the hope that it does.

Hope, is Danger's Comforter. A key feature in human decision-making about the future. Let me quote Thucydides once again: ''Hope is by nature an expensive commodity, and those who are risking their all on one cast find out what it means only when they are already ruined''

So I use my analysis to reduce potential outcomes. After all, this is what are all about, my 5 disciplines in investing. In times and environments of uncertainty, you will never have all the info and all the data you require. When you have 100% of all the info, it is already too late.
Fair point. To phrase things differently - I believe that the amount of information gained by waiting for e.g a 20% price increase outweighs the decrease in the amount of BTC purchased, and therefore is likely to lead to a higher expected value.

Not investment advice… due your own DD!
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6216
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:29 am

I would like to quickly update you on the current state of play.
We have good news.
Of course anything can happen, but this time coin flipping is not 50/50.

BTC weekly.png
BTC weekly.png (438.08 KiB) Viewed 512 times

The weekly RSI broke the long and stiff resistance.
We have a new higher high on the weekly.
The positive divergence in the RSI remains intact.

Anything could happen of course, but seems to me the lows are in, and we are running the new Bull Market and a new Cycle.

Do your own Due Diligence of course.
ex-hft
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 14
Posts: 220
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:30 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:08 pm

I think you may be right
cortomaltese
Pro
ProProProPro
Karma: 33
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:07 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sat Jan 14, 2023 1:00 am

I think he was already right 6+ months ago but let us all sit and enjoy the party
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6216
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:43 am

Thank you for the good words.

A quick update.
Recent BTC price action resembles to the expected action in the beginnings of a new cycle. It now entered a range where we had structure for some 6 months as seen in the chart below.

BTC structure.png
BTC structure.png (541.82 KiB) Viewed 384 times

At the same time the daily RSI quickly moved to overbought levels. I expect price to range at the levels of the inner rectangle for a while, giving time to the RSI to cool off a little, and people who were easily scared with previous action to sell their BTC to others.

Price action troops beautyfully with SP500.

I will speak about how I envision the structure of the next Cycle when price gets above my accumulation zone price range. You will be amazed.

And of course, do your own DD.

Return to “Stock Markets and Cryptos”