Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
- Maydschi
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I hope you will continue this valuable thread as long as possible and want to say thank you for your effort!
- TheGreatDane
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Since there is no like button I also want to express my gratitude and hope that you continue your amazing work.
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arbusers
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2 days left.
Do your own DD.
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
arbusers wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:56 amIf January ends (31st), with a BTC price above $23300, January's monthly candle will engulf the 6 previous candles. This will be an extremely rare phenomenon in the world of T.A, not only about BTC but about anything measured in charts and applied in T.A. It will send such a powerful signal to chartists, they will come to an orgasm.
2 days left.
- Engulfing.png (401.83 KiB) Viewed 993 times
Do your own DD.
- Eleftherios
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
It's been great watching the countdown you set with hours remaining for the monthly candle to close.
Like many others I have been watching the 50 day SMA & 200 day SMA on the weekly converging at $25.000. What is more, there is resistance at the same level from the highs of August. Does BTC's momentum, given your important observation, have enough force to break with the first try this important level?
If not mistaken, you spoke in the past about defeating enemies one at a time so this is what mainly triggers the above question.
Thanks again for all the impressive work, dedication and guidance.
Like many others I have been watching the 50 day SMA & 200 day SMA on the weekly converging at $25.000. What is more, there is resistance at the same level from the highs of August. Does BTC's momentum, given your important observation, have enough force to break with the first try this important level?
If not mistaken, you spoke in the past about defeating enemies one at a time so this is what mainly triggers the above question.
Thanks again for all the impressive work, dedication and guidance.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
@Eleftherios,
Let's take things one after another.
The 50/200 SMA is something that almost all crypto enthusiasts are watching like a hawk. That means it has limited or no value at all.
The August resistance level is a fact and we must take it under serious consideration.
In my view these last days BTC has shown it lost the momentum that started during holidays. It needs some time to digest. I can never be sure but I believe we should see a pull back at this point. A creation of some market structure for some days. If it cuts like the knife cuts the butter upwards, I will start to worry, because we will be heading for a more serious and severe pull back. At this point, I would prefer BTC to gather strength and momentum at these levels, maybe a little bit lower than here, and then move with full force upwards. Of course BTC and anything else in the charts do not care of what I prefer. The market always has it's own ways to surprise everyone.
For me, what is important right now is the monthly closing tonight. The monthly candle will give us more clue and data on what the market wants to do. T.A is all about probabilities, and the more data we have the easiest to reject some scenarios and elect others.
And of course, do your own DD.
Let's take things one after another.
The 50/200 SMA is something that almost all crypto enthusiasts are watching like a hawk. That means it has limited or no value at all.
The August resistance level is a fact and we must take it under serious consideration.
In my view these last days BTC has shown it lost the momentum that started during holidays. It needs some time to digest. I can never be sure but I believe we should see a pull back at this point. A creation of some market structure for some days. If it cuts like the knife cuts the butter upwards, I will start to worry, because we will be heading for a more serious and severe pull back. At this point, I would prefer BTC to gather strength and momentum at these levels, maybe a little bit lower than here, and then move with full force upwards. Of course BTC and anything else in the charts do not care of what I prefer. The market always has it's own ways to surprise everyone.
For me, what is important right now is the monthly closing tonight. The monthly candle will give us more clue and data on what the market wants to do. T.A is all about probabilities, and the more data we have the easiest to reject some scenarios and elect others.
And of course, do your own DD.
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apoel81
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
January is now out and the latest monthly candle is now printed. As previous stated, it is a bullish engulfing candle that engulfs the 4 previous months. It was very close to engulf the previous 6 months, but in the end Mr Market decided that 4 months are enough. Have a look at the graph, and I will continue commenting:
What is an engulfing candle and why is it so important?
According to T.A theory, engulfing candlestick patterns are comprised of at least two bars on a price chart. They are used to indicate a market reversal. The last candlestick will be much larger than the previous, so that it completely covers or 'engulfs' it's length.
Those who read our threads about investing, know very well that the bigger the time frame, the stronger the signal. Now we are talking about a monthly time frame and not a daily or a weekly. That means the signal we receive is very powerful. As previously said, T.A is not a tool to deterministically interpret the markets, but it helps to a large extend to reduce future outcomes. This engulfing candle is telling us something. We have a very strong market reversal. It means we will not see new lows for the foreseeable future and we are heading north.
On a side note, I expect this new bull market to be very irregular. It will not be easy to navigate basing everything on the circularity of the market, and the immature of its investors. Some people pray for institutional investors, now they have them. But institutional investors are big men and they fight like lions. They are not the boys from Veles with the Youtube channels and the Twitters. Prepare to fight with the Lions in this cycle.
- BTC engulfing.png (374.19 KiB) Viewed 734 times
What is an engulfing candle and why is it so important?
According to T.A theory, engulfing candlestick patterns are comprised of at least two bars on a price chart. They are used to indicate a market reversal. The last candlestick will be much larger than the previous, so that it completely covers or 'engulfs' it's length.
Those who read our threads about investing, know very well that the bigger the time frame, the stronger the signal. Now we are talking about a monthly time frame and not a daily or a weekly. That means the signal we receive is very powerful. As previously said, T.A is not a tool to deterministically interpret the markets, but it helps to a large extend to reduce future outcomes. This engulfing candle is telling us something. We have a very strong market reversal. It means we will not see new lows for the foreseeable future and we are heading north.
On a side note, I expect this new bull market to be very irregular. It will not be easy to navigate basing everything on the circularity of the market, and the immature of its investors. Some people pray for institutional investors, now they have them. But institutional investors are big men and they fight like lions. They are not the boys from Veles with the Youtube channels and the Twitters. Prepare to fight with the Lions in this cycle.
- cortomaltese
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Couldn't help not to lough with this!!
Are you sure it's Veles and not Negotino or Strumica ?
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
They are not the boys from Veles with the Youtube channels and the Twitters
Couldn't help not to lough with this!!
Are you sure it's Veles and not Negotino or Strumica ?
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arbusers
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It could be Krivolak very easily too, but you get the point. Veles is consider the capital of fake news worldwide, and it started with the Trump campaign of 2016.
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
cortomaltese wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:20 pmThey are not the boys from Veles with the Youtube channels and the Twitters
Couldn't help not to lough with this!!
Are you sure it's Veles and not Negotino or Strumica ?
It could be Krivolak very easily too, but you get the point. Veles is consider the capital of fake news worldwide, and it started with the Trump campaign of 2016.
- junoreactor
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This is very bullish.
forex.academy/trading-the-morning-star-candlestick-pattern-like-a-pro/
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Last 3 monthly candles form a morning star.arbusers wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:57 amJanuary is now out and the latest monthly candle is now printed. As previous stated, it is a bullish engulfing candle that engulfs the 4 previous months. It was very close to engulf the previous 6 months, but in the end Mr Market decided that 4 months are enough. Have a look at the graph, and I will continue commenting:
BTC engulfing.png
What is an engulfing candle and why is it so important?
According to T.A theory, engulfing candlestick patterns are comprised of at least two bars on a price chart. They are used to indicate a market reversal. The last candlestick will be much larger than the previous, so that it completely covers or 'engulfs' it's length.
Those who read our threads about investing, know very well that the bigger the time frame, the stronger the signal. Now we are talking about a monthly time frame and not a daily or a weekly. That means the signal we receive is very powerful. As previously said, T.A is not a tool to deterministically interpret the markets, but it helps to a large extend to reduce future outcomes. This engulfing candle is telling us something. We have a very strong market reversal. It means we will not see new lows for the foreseeable future and we are heading north.
On a side note, I expect this new bull market to be very irregular. It will not be easy to navigate basing everything on the circularity of the market, and the immature of its investors. Some people pray for institutional investors, now they have them. But institutional investors are big men and they fight like lions. They are not the boys from Veles with the Youtube channels and the Twitters. Prepare to fight with the Lions in this cycle.
This is very bullish.
forex.academy/trading-the-morning-star-candlestick-pattern-like-a-pro/
- crypto data
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
My update on my normal BTC DCA model. Model sugest now DCA under $23,2k
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arbusers
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Could you say some more about that?
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
crypto data wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 9:27 amMy update on my normal BTC DCA model. Model sugest now DCA under $23,2k
Could you say some more about that?
- crypto data
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I notice that some BTC indicators are rising fast!
The full model shows at his moment that there is an 80% probability that BITCOIN's bottom was at $15.5k
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
For now, I can only update the model manually, so it's quite a time-consuming job, and therefore I can't afford to update often.arbusers wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 9:38 amcrypto data wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 9:27 amMy update on my normal BTC DCA model. Model sugest now DCA under $23,2k
Could you say some more about that?
I notice that some BTC indicators are rising fast!
The full model shows at his moment that there is an 80% probability that BITCOIN's bottom was at $15.5k
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
A retest to confirm the support maybe?
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Let's quickly recap the current state of play.
We discussed previously the importance of the engulfing candles. According to classic T.A The higher the time frame, the bigger the importance. Now we have a weekly engulfing candle forming as we speak. Of course it is too early (Thursday) but let's be proactive a little bit to see what other chartists will see on Monday morning.
1. If the candle closes above $23800 it will engulf the 3 previous weeks. That will send a very powerful message that the bull market is here, alive and kicking.
2. If the candle closes between $23000 and $23800, it will engulf just 1 previous week. It will be a good signal but not that powerful.
3. If the candle closes below $23000 then we will have a very long wick above its head that will be interpreted as weakness by chartists, and will have a negative impact in the price.
And of course, do your own Due Diligence.
We discussed previously the importance of the engulfing candles. According to classic T.A The higher the time frame, the bigger the importance. Now we have a weekly engulfing candle forming as we speak. Of course it is too early (Thursday) but let's be proactive a little bit to see what other chartists will see on Monday morning.
1. If the candle closes above $23800 it will engulf the 3 previous weeks. That will send a very powerful message that the bull market is here, alive and kicking.
2. If the candle closes between $23000 and $23800, it will engulf just 1 previous week. It will be a good signal but not that powerful.
3. If the candle closes below $23000 then we will have a very long wick above its head that will be interpreted as weakness by chartists, and will have a negative impact in the price.
- BTC.png (384.63 KiB) Viewed 324 times
And of course, do your own Due Diligence.
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