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Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

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Eleftherios
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Tue Apr 30, 2024 6:34 pm

A few personal observations on BTC not talked in the media.

On the 2W timeframe:

EMA9 (now 57.700) is strong support during the entirety of the bull.

There is a support line (blue) coming back from March 2020.

Volume level on the last red candle has not been that low since 2016.

2017 once we hit all time high it took 5 candles to break resistance. We are at candle 4.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed May 01, 2024 3:21 pm

We now have the print of the April’s candlestick. A monthly candlestick comes with a big importance as it has way more things to tell compared to weekly or daily candlesticks.

1.png

This candle is a red one and it is engulfing the candle of the previous month. It is a very bearish one, and indicates that hardship is in-front of us. Bearish engulfing candles are usually followed by negative candles, as it is a very rare phenomenon to see a bullish candle in a situation like this. This means that May is also expected to be a negative month.

There is a big question among Bitcoin investors and enthusiasts. Have we seen the market cycle top for this cycle? I believe the answer is no. This is because the smart money did not have enough time to off-load to the weak hands. We haven’t seen the mania of retail investors jumping in the market like no tomorrow.

The inflows from the ETFs stopped and I dont see any fresh money coming in the market. The usual suspects, the youtube w.ores did their job very well, they kept the market at a range where they would like to sell, but that was not enough in my opinion. They will need another push up to sell. The selling process already started, but it was stopped before getting into critical levels.

The NUPL, Net Unrealised Profit Loss indicator, shows that selling did not come to its climax like it did in previous cycles.This is illustrated in the following graph:

2.png

Mixing all things together, I come to the conclusion that Bitcoin needs more time until the mechanism persuades the ignorant to jump in. We may see a local bottom in May, so prepare for even lower prices during the month, followed by a pause to heal the trauma and then a final leg up. There is no time frame as we speak.

Again. The fact that I bought my Bitcoin during the market bottom process, allows me to be calm and play the waiting game that others can’t play. In addition, to answer to Eleftherios shortly, as I monotonically repeat in this thread, I reserve the right to change my opinion at any point in time when the charts dictate me to do so according to my knowledge and judgement.

Here it is time to re-asses my activity, and I am noticing a 2nd mistake that I will shortly mention. The 1st mistake was selling 20% of my portfolio after the ETF announcement. The 2nd mistake was selling only 10% of my portfolio when the Youtube w.ore came to a crescendo some days ago. Remember, it is the guy that asked us to ''irresponsibly hold'' during the previous cycle, now telling us to ''not to f.ck up'' and ''keep the lines for 1-1.5 months before going banana''.

Again, do your won due diligence.
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nahcarts
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Thu May 02, 2024 8:27 pm

Steve from "Crypto Crew University" says dont sell, buy dips, because we are in bull run. Is he one of moon boys cartel? He was wrong with call 35000, he says we will 100% hit 35000 this time or in 2026 bear market.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon May 13, 2024 12:20 pm

Yesterday was had the print of another weekly candle that I believe it is important.
Having a look at the stochastic RSI of Bitcoin, we are in-front of a textbook bullish crossover. If the bull market is still valid (and I believe it is), this crossover will result to a very violent move upwards. If this move is strong enough to invalidate the flag, then we will start counting the mirage towards a very important top, possibly the top.

Stoch RSI.png

However, if the flag is not invalidated, then further pain will be ahead.

And of course, do your own DD.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Tue May 21, 2024 10:31 am

Bitcoin at the cross road! (part 1)

We have some recent developments with BTC price action that must be commented. I will split the complete comment on the market in smaller pieces in order to make it easier for everyone to follow.

I am starting with one of my worries. There is a magic number that is repeated again and again in the history of Bitcoin. This number is 1064. Every time we have a very important top or bottom, we have a similarly important top of bottom after exactly 1064 days. You might remember the technical top of April 2021, when I sold my bags for the previous cycle. 1064 days later and we are getting to top of March 2024, that still remains the All Time High for Bitcoin.

Before trying to invalidate my comment, the 1064 is not exact. It has a small margin.

Therefore, I would love to see a new top very soon, higher than $74000, that would invalidate the magic number of 1064 and would clearly indicate the bull market going on.

More posts during the day.

BTC 1064.png

And of course, do your own Due Diligence.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Tue May 21, 2024 12:42 pm

Bitcoin at the cross road! (part 2)

Here is the 2nd cross road we need to successfully pass in order to confirm the continuation of our bull market. It’s been more than a month since we identified a bullish flag. At this very day, Bitcoin’s price is at the edge. We need a convincing close outside this flag to be able to say that we are on path.

The technical’s support the idea, but there is an asterisk.
1. Classic RSI looks capable for a new way up as it calmed down from 88 to 71. This is typical for the bull markets.
2. Stochastic RSI (the asterisk) already had its cross over. However, theory says that we need both parts of the index to go above 20 in order to have our confirmation. Theoretically, this could happen in the next 1-2 weeks.

BTC part 2.png

Now let’s talk about the surrounding area. The SP500 looks strong enough and seasonality is favourable, especially in a US election year. These years typically have strong Junes. Commodities (Gold, Silver, etc) they all formed a cup and handle formation indicating the next leg will be up.

Blending all these together, I believe we are in a good position to brake the flag, confirm the Stochastic RSI, get above 74K that I mentioned in the previous post, and continue for the final leg of the cycle.

In the grand scheme of the market, I am perfectly positioned so far, already pocketed significant profits, and waiting to unleash the final mirage. In my next post I will speak about the potential final top of the market, as a target of our bull flag.

And of course, do your own due diligence.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed May 22, 2024 9:44 am

arbusers wrote: In my next post I will speak about the potential final top of the market, as a target of our bull flag.

So for the shake of the argument, let's suppose that the bull flag breaks today. It's upper limit is (today) approximately $71.000, and the length of the poll is $35.300. That tell me that the top will be at approximately $106.300, if the flag breaks today, and if this run up is the final one.

Does this mean that I will unload my bags at 106.300?
No. I will first need to determine if the next run up is the final top. And I will have to gradually sell my positions as we climb up.

And of course, do your own due diligence.
crypto data
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed May 22, 2024 11:36 am

For now, I would say that we are in an election year. In the year when there are elections and when the same candidate is running for a second consecutive mandate, then the sp500 has an above-average growth.

Despite the recession in 2020 when Trump ran for his second term, the SP500 made around 15% profit. I do not expect an alt-season in this BTC cycle (I may change this view in 2025).

I bought BTC at an average price of $17k this cycle and I have to admit that in March of this year when BTC crossed $70k I was inclined to sell 10%-20% of my position, but watching my indicators I didn't see them near the top. But there is one trick in this BTC cycle - the cycle reminds me a lot of the BTC cycle from 2019, the only difference is that this cycle is much more stretched out in the timeframe. In 2019 we did not have an altseason.But for now my view is that BTC should top out till end of the year (maybe in a month or in 6 months - for now I see this critical month end of September when BTC could reach the pick (but this is very dinamic matrice))
adamson smith
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon May 27, 2024 8:29 am

Hi crypto data, I'm a newbie on investing in crypto.

Which indicator should I rely more? For instance, you mentioned something about an election year. Is this something positive that or negative on Bitcoins standing? Or is it wiser to just wait for the right technical analysis to assume where Bitcoin's price is headed? I'm not an expert on charting yet and am relying heavily on reading news and technical forecast of people. I would appreciate any kind of decent answer. Thanks in advance!
crypto data
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Tue May 28, 2024 6:38 am

adamson smith wrote:
Mon May 27, 2024 8:29 am
Hi crypto data, I'm a newbie on investing in crypto.

Which indicator should I rely more? For instance, you mentioned something about an election year. Is this something positive that or negative on Bitcoins standing? Or is it wiser to just wait for the right technical analysis to assume where Bitcoin's price is headed? I'm not an expert on charting yet and am relying heavily on reading news and technical forecast of people. I would appreciate any kind of decent answer. Thanks in advance!
I can tell you this. The admin of this forum has his bitcoin analysis. I have been studying Bitcoin data for 3-4 years, and I can tell you that I look at different indicators than admin. However, despite this, admin and I only bought Bitcoin in June 2022 and November 2022 in this cycle. Different approach still meant the same result. Personally, I don't have a mentor on how to study the markets, I just like numbers and make my own investment models
adamson smith
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed May 29, 2024 7:18 am

crypto data wrote:
Tue May 28, 2024 6:38 am
adamson smith wrote:
Mon May 27, 2024 8:29 am
Hi crypto data, I'm a newbie on investing in crypto.

Which indicator should I rely more? For instance, you mentioned something about an election year. Is this something positive that or negative on Bitcoins standing? Or is it wiser to just wait for the right technical analysis to assume where Bitcoin's price is headed? I'm not an expert on charting yet and am relying heavily on reading news and technical forecast of people. I would appreciate any kind of decent answer. Thanks in advance!
I can tell you this. The admin of this forum has his bitcoin analysis. I have been studying Bitcoin data for 3-4 years, and I can tell you that I look at different indicators than admin. However, despite this, admin and I only bought Bitcoin in June 2022 and November 2022 in this cycle. Different approach still meant the same result. Personally, I don't have a mentor on how to study the markets, I just like numbers and make my own investment models
Hi cryptodata,

Thanks for sharing your insights! It's fascinating to hear that despite using different indicators, you and the admin ended up buying Bitcoin at the same times. It really highlights how diverse strategies can lead to similar outcomes. Your approach of developing your own investment models sounds intriguing and something I aspire to work towards. Do you have any recommendations on where a newbie like me should start in terms of building a solid understanding of market data?

Any advice or resources you could share would be greatly appreciated. Thanks again for your input!
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Tue Jun 04, 2024 4:23 pm

If we make it and get out of the descending flag, and then get into price discovery mode within the following days, the market will give us a substantial amount of data to determine the height of the top of this cycle.
Get ready.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Jun 14, 2024 7:16 am

This is to inform you that I just sold an additional 10% of my BTC portfolio at $67.000.

I will explain my thinking process behind this decision.

1. This price is within my expectations from the beginning of the cycle.
2. I am noticing a market sentiment where big Youtube and X accounts are all together signalling the end of July as the next break up point upwards. This is a pattern that I have noticed many times. These accounts are asking investors to simply wait. In my mind it says ''wait while we sell''.
3. Probably most important, I am noticing a weekly negative divergence in the RSI. I explained in the past that the best operating time frame for BTC is the weekly. Not the monthly, not the daily. This weekly price action brought the Bitcoin price very near the previous All Time Highs, but at the same time the RSI did not move.
4. The Stochastic weekly RSI is getting ready for another cross down, invalidating the scenario of a confirmed cross up.

Blending all together, I am doing a risk management while keeping a significant portion of my BTC intact.


BTC latest.png


And of course, this is not a financial advise, do your own due dilligence.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Jun 14, 2024 3:43 pm

Thanks for the update mate, thanks for the profit as well
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sun Jun 16, 2024 7:41 pm

This is to inform you that I sold 85% of my Bitcoin holdings.
I will describe my thinking process soon, when I find some time.
Of course, this is not a financial advise. Do your own due diligence.

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