Arbusers

Very quickly...I bought 100% of the desired BTC amount according to my plan.
Most probably the lows are in, but let's not be deterministic about all things.
I have to tell you that If (that is a big If) price goes to 13-14.000 I will dedicate an additional amount of purchasing power.

I am about to make a detailed post in the coming days.

Again...

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 20, 2022 4:03 pm

As Arbusers said some weeks ago. Now it will go to 50k and after that to 3k.

In that momment could be a good time to buy as well.

Arbusers seems to know what he's talking about but still you shouldn't follow anyone blindly for your own financial decision.

I myself agree it's good time to buy.

As said before, I bought DOT at 6.5, would be such a great feeling if we pump now, the lowest price of DOT was 6.35, I would have bought so close to the bottom

We have a very good possibility the bottom is already in within the specified time period of 17th to 22nd of June as I previously calculated, and alerted the members that follow this thread. As you already know, I bought all the BTC according to my plan.

However, we didn't see this deep being accompanied by larger than average volumes. Ideally, I would prefer another shake-out that would take more Bitcoins from weak hands and bring them to stronger hands, with convincing volumes. This could happen in the next 10-20 days, in the time period between 5 and 14th of July. It would create a W structure, or a double bottom, which is considered a very powerful formation according to Technical Analysis. It would guarantee a very strong bull market with a much higher top, compared to a V bottomed structure.

For this time being I am not dedicating additional funds, but if the 2nd bottom occurs, and if it occurs in much lower levels, then I will be tempted to bring in fresh capital. On the other hand, there is also a good possibility this W will not appear.

Thanks a lot for your time spend on such great analyses mate , much appreciated

Many thanks for your analysis arbusers!
I must say that this is already a very succesful one , however if time proves
that bottom is already in that would mean that this analysis was far beyond than
just succesfull!!

Let's not be deterministic about things. We can never be sure if the bottom is in, or if it is yet to come. Only God buys at the bottom and sells at the tops. The primary target is to have a successful investment on a 3-4 years horizon. This comes with the pre-requisite that we buy in the supercilioum of the bottom, and we sell at the supercilioum of the top.
And of course, thank you both for the good words.

I would like to remind you a very popular phrase that I m sure you heard many times before:

Not your keys, not your bitcoin.

Allow me to explain the 2 reasons why you should follow this as a Gospel. I am sure you already know the 1st reason, but did you know the 2nd?

1st. If something goes wrong and your platform goes under, then it is unlikely that you recover your Bitcoins. I am sure most of crypto enthusiasts feel safety in Coinbase and Kraken, but what guarantee is there that nothing bad happens to them too? Do I have to speak about various investing schemes? I guess not. Lesson 1 of economics...wherever there is an interest rate, there is a risk.

2nd. I have been very vocal about a well known platform run by crooks. Even though they crossed the lines in many instances, the US decided not to jail the managers. Most probably, there are political and financial reasons for that. According to many people, this platform was selling Bitcoins it never had. Thus, they created artificial inflation in this asset. By getting your Bitcoin to your wallets, you stop them from creating Bitcoin they actually don't have. Thus, you help Bitcoin price go up, and clean the crypto sphere from people who should not be around.

please tell us the crook name

Interest rate 1% on BTC is like 9,2% on us 10Y bond when inflation is 8,2%. But today rate on US 10Y bond is 3,2%.
Everybody should risk as much BTC as can afford to lose. I lending 10-20%. Borrowers/shorters should return me more, so long term its pushing price btc up.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:19 pm

Let's not be deterministic about things. We can never be sure if the bottom is in, or if it is yet to come. Only God buys at the bottom and sells at the tops. The primary target is to have a successful investment on a 3-4 years horizon. This comes with the pre-requisite that we buy in the supercilioum of the bottom, and we sell at the supercilioum of the top.
And of course, thank you both for the good words.

Indeed! That's why i said your analysis is already succesfull ! No matter what!
But if this price level proves in the course of time to be the bottom then yes...
This analysis would not just be succesfull , in that case it would be extraordinarily succesfull!
It's a nice thing to be humble and modest... by all means and that is giving you extra character value!
Bravo mate!

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:40 pm

However, we didn't see this deep being accompanied by larger than average volumes. Ideally, I would prefer another shake-out that would take more Bitcoins from weak hands and bring them to stronger hands, with convincing volumes. This could happen in the next 10-20 days, in the time period between 5 and 14th of July.

Bitcoin's price is now accelerating South. I am narrowing the time period of the next expected bottom between the 9th and the 13th of July. With the data that I have today, the 11th of July looks like a magnet. It is a combination of Elliott waves, market circularity and the way these things are understood by softwares that make this date important. Unfortunately, these date was not flashing before the previous bottom of June the 18th. If it did I would structure my buying strategy differently.

So what is my plan now? I will continue monitoring the dates, and if July the 11th remains the important day, I will...
1st. Do nothing if the price is not a new low.
2nd. Do nothing if the price is lower than 10% of the previous low, that is 15820.
3rd. Dedicate an additional amount of 10 to 15%, depending on how much lower than 15820 the price goes.

I know it doesn't sound good to dedicate more funds, but the bigger the opportunity, the more I should dedicate. After all, this is what DDCA is about. I will then stop all purchases, because the technical analysis that I currently have is not giving any additional clue.


At this stage it is important to say, the price is so low, that Technical Analysis potential outcomes leave limited space for any other scenario than huge returns in the long term. In addition, on chain data shows that accounts with more than 10 BTCs are buying like no tomorrow. This is indeed generational.

And of course...

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

@arbusers Many thanks for the crystal clear analysis you shared so far. To me it's like an array of future events written way before they were realised.
I am self-thought full time into crypto and want to say I can only respect someone so technically astute and for his attitude to share his hardly mined information within a small community of like minded individuals.

I am trying to understand what is happening with BTC dominance as it had a serious drop from its recent highs. How would you mostly interpret this behaviour:

1) Has the market fundamentally changed and Alts will not bleed as much related to their BTC values? Could top Altcoins have already finished their bear run before BTC, given that most liquidations are coming from large entities who really own mostly BTC & ETH?

2) Nothing has really changed, and we have a long way to go in the bear market consolidating in the lower levels for a long time until the enthusiasm influencers instil into followers fades.

Also,

Could we assume that BTC's bottom coincides with inflation bottom? New CPI data come out on the the 13th of July and you mentioned next expected bottom between the 9th and the 13th of July.

Thanks again for your time and input.

Thank you Lefteris for the good words.

Even though BTC dominance plays a role when making decisions, in these current circumstances I prefer keeping T.A as the cornerstone of the decision making process. We could discuss for days why the BTC dominance is not where it should be, and this could be very academic. We can only make hypothesis, as we don’t have access to rare data.

I am sure, the liquidity provider, these people that I previously called ''a puritanical high priesthood, reverent within its own atheism'' know the answer very well.

But Lefteris, since this is your 4th question already about the BTC dominance, here is my hypothesis: I believe there are more than 21.000.000 BTC in circulation. It seems to me that some people are selling Bitcoins they don’t really have. This is one of the reasons that I advise everyone to take all cryptos on their hard wallets like Ledgers and Trezors. If this becomes massive among crypto enthusiasts, then a Bottleneck will be formed and bad people will run for cover.

Crypto enthusiasts were praying for years for institutions to join the sphere. There you are, you have them. Crypto enthusiasts detest the idea of regulation. But what if this regulation forces everyone to use only the amount of cryptos they really have?

Option #2 could very well be, and we have a long way down the drain, but frankly, my T.A is not OK with that. The bottom is already in, or somewhere very near in the X (that is time) axis.

Who knows, maybe suddenly, at an unknown time in future, the Bitcoin dominance will be skyrocketed to the levels of 60-65% within a time period of some days. I dont have an answer for that and I can only make a hypothesis of a very low value.

In general I am against narratives, especially those circulating in the crypto-sphere. What is the chewing gum these days? it is inflation-FED-pivot. Well, if everyone believes that, then this is the thing that will not happen, simply because this is the nature of the game.

By default, the BTC market encapsulates all 5 disciplines that i use in investing, and it magnifies them tremendously. That means that BTC is the canary in the coal mine, and will react before the FED, before the stock markets, and before these people with the chewing gum change the narrative again.

Very quickly, the time window is now from 11th to 15th.

It is now time that I update you guys about the current state of play.

First, let’s recap what I have done so far. I simply bought the 100% of our desired positions within the time period of 16 to 20th of June. That includes the bottom of the market of June the 18th, as anticipated previously. There is a big possibility that I bought the absolute bottom of the market.

I have a very strong certainty that June the 18th is the actual bottom of this bear market. Of course, we can never be sure and we should never be deterministic, but all technical indicators and metrics that I follow and invented, are signalling the date of 18th of June as the bottom of the bear market. Time will show.

I also identified another time period as an alternative bottom to the market, that thankfully did not materialise. Have a look at my graph, it shows the period that I bought, plus the 2nd bottom some days ago.


Besides what my technical indicators and metrics are showing, there is another important fact we all need to take into account. It is the will of the liquidity provider not to allow crypto markets to crash further. As previously said, this is a puritanical high priesthood, reverent within its own atheism. These are people far more important in the crypto markets than people who simply invest or speculate.

The liquidity provider made billions of $ during this last cycle and will most probably want to repeat cycles again and again, as they are their cash cow machine. That said, I believe with strong certainty that June the 18th is the actual bottom and I managed to take advantage of it to a large extend.

That was my first crypto macro bottom, and I gained valuable experiences from it.