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Books to read

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arbusers
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Re: Books to read

Fri May 08, 2020 9:34 am

''Mastering the Market Cycle'' by Howard Marks
During these last years, I noticed Oaktree Capital Management, the largest distressed securities investor in the world, performing extremely well. Given the amount of capital under control, it is evident this investor was clearly defying the law of large numbers, which is an important quality criterion for investors of this size. I decided to dig deeper into their management to find out what their background was, hoping that I could copy some of their tactics.
Howard Marks is the head of the company and an evangelist of behavioral investing. This type of investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. In my view, behavioral investing is the missing piece of the quartet also including value investing, technical analysis, and the Elliot Wave theory. There is a fifth element that can’t be taught or studied, but maybe we will discuss it in the future.
Mastering the Market Cycle is an introduction to behavioral investing, using the history of the markets of the last 3 decades to extract important takeaways. Marks explains the nature of the cycles and the pendulum of investor psychology. He discriminates the various types of cycles and blends them all together to create his strategy. Even if you are not a capital investor, you will find this book useful for identifying important cycles that affect your life, for example, when it is the right time to buy or sell a home. Some readers will find similarities between behavioral investing and value betting as we know it.
Clearly Marks is not a philosopher like Buffett and Munger. It is a paradox but this is his strong point because he is using the simplest language and ways to communicate his market cycles theory and behavioral investing. No wonder, Marks is referring to Thucydides at the beginning of his book, when speaking about the human character that never changes.
Like Benjamin Graham's book, I must warn potential readers. My feeling is that Marks wrote this book, having in mind that you should invest in democracies with strong institutions. If your country is a banana republic, or a crypto-communistic country declaring itself a western democracy, then this book is for you, if and only if, you are determined to invest in a real democracy, overseas, or away from home.
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Re: Books to read

Mon May 11, 2020 3:30 pm

I would recommend "Sapiens, a brief history of humankind" from Yuval Noah Harari.

Gives you a different point of view, to look at the history, and draw some possible scenarios for the coming future.

I think that this book gives you some edge in a lot of different aspects, including financies or value investing.
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Re: Books to read

Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:48 am

arbusers wrote: ''The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity'' by Carlo Cipolla.
A good read - and short, it takes about an hour to read all chapters. I read it twice, when I purchased it last summer. Then my father grabbed it, read it, and now it is somewhere else in the family. We have much fun categorizing people according to Cipolla's quadrants.

This is a great thread, which will be revisited at least twice a year (christmas and birthday). Had Sapiens as a gift last birthday, which is great. I wonder what it will be this christmas. Something from this list for sure.
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Re: Books to read

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:24 am

VidaBlue wrote: Had Sapiens as a gift last birthday, which is great. I wonder what it will be this christmas.
''Homo Deus'' by Yuval Noah Harari.
If you enjoyed ''Sapiens'', then I suggest you quickly move to ''Homo Deus''. This is Harari's 2nd and best book so far. I would not bother with the ''21 lessons''.
In Homo Deus, Harari becomes a futurist and describes what people's life will be like in the next decades. He describes the importance of Data and the quickly changing circumstances that would define questions like, what should I do when I grow up. Artificial Intelligence and robots are coming like a storm threatening all traditional labor. You might think that driverless cars are a threat for taxi drivers, affecting the lives and careers of labor in the lower ladder, but at the same time, Artificial Intelligence is about to replace doctors too, that proudly stand at the top of the ladder for a couple of centuries now.
The 4th Industrial Revolution already started, and in the next years, it will be decided who is moving forward in the future and who is lagging behind. This of course includes nations, but at the same time, it goes down to the individual level. Some of our kids will remain Sapiens, while others will become Homo Deus’.
This simply means that people like us, and especially the next generation of our kids, should be equipped with the right arsenal of abilities, skills, and above all critical thinking.
It might sound odd, but the best reader of this book is the father (not the mother) that cares about the future of his kids.

I am happy you enjoyed Cipolla.
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Re: Books to read

Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:24 pm

Ho ho ho :)
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Re: Books to read

Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:32 pm

Congrats, enjoy the journey. Your review will be appreciated.
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Re: Books to read

Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:43 am

Lately, I m working on my logical fallacies in an attempt to master as more as I can. After intensive research and reading some books, I bought a book called ‘’How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking’’ written by Mathematician Jordan Ellenberg.
This is not a book I recommend for a beginner in the sphere. There are other books you should read before this one if your goal is to master logical fallacies.
Part 3 is titled ‘’Expectation’’ and it is dedicated to gambling. It describes the way 3 syndicates operated back in the 00s to secure a sure profit from state lotteries in the US. I never heard of these syndicates before, named Random Strategies, DZLC (Doctor Zhang Lottery Club) and Gerald Selbee. I could find only minimal information in Google and elsewhere for them.
While reading the book, I did the maths to see what is the amount of money these people were earning back then. It was serious money for the time. Indeed inflation distorts reality, but in today’s value, I can say there are individuals making a lot more than these syndicates and their survivability is more resilient these days as they can jump from one smart betting to another within a short period of time. These lottery syndicates died when the state lottery changed.
Of course there is Romanticism when you see people filling bet slips by hand for days, instead of softwares placing the bets on line like they do today.
Also, it reminds me that most of the high profile gamblers with media exposure, are simply looking for the media exposure and nothing more. Most probably there is nothing about gambling in them.
Another part of the book was dedicated to Francis Galton and the ‘’regression toward the mean’’ concept that explains a lot in the gambling industry too. Even though it was not mentioned in the book, it gives an adequate explanation why smart betting, arbing and value betting will have diminishing returns in the future. In a dubious projection, it could explain diminishing returns in the crypto sphere too.
Again, this is not a book I recommend for beginners.
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Re: Books to read

Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:26 pm

''Eleni'' by Nicholas Gage

Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987 in Reykjavik. It is the treaty that kept Europe peaceful for more than 30 years. It is not a surprise that both USA and Russia withdrew from it these last 3-4 years and as a result, the door to the war in Ukraine was widely opened.

Reagan was the US president that brought the USSR to her knees, eventually killing the empire of Evil. After signing the treaty, Reagan addressed to the US nation and spoke about ‘’Eleni’’, a book written by Nicholas Gage. After reading the book, I decided to hear Reagan’s voice in that address in order to see if we both understood the same things from the book. It turned out Reagan understood more than me. Gage (real name Nikolaos Gatzoyiannis) is a Greek-born American author and investigative journalist. If his name reminds you something, it is because he is the producer of ‘’The Godfather Part III’’.

In his book ‘’Eleni’’, he describes how Nicholas, aged just 9, and his sisters survived under the communists, and how they escaped. As a revenge, the Communists, tortured and in the end executed his mother. It also describes the adventures of many families of his village. Alliances among families, plots that can never be imagined, and above all, the role of family in survival, both positive and negative. Greek Communists were largely supported by Albania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria, under the guidance of Stalin and Tito. The book reminded me largely of Thucydides. Once again, relatives killing relatives with no reason. People dedicated to God, proved to be lethal snitches, condemning dozens to death. Human dignity at its lowest.

‘’Eleni’’, together with ‘’Gulag Archipelago’’ are the 2 books that will bring you to the very core of communism, that crime to humanity! At the same time, I was not surprised to see the Russian rhetoric of the Ukraine war, to be identical with the Communist rhetoric of the Greek civil war some 75 years ago. Some things never change.

This is not a book for happy moods. It became a film starring John Malkovich. I watched it, but for sure I prefer the book.
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Re: Books to read

Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:15 am

''Company of One'' by Paul Jarvis

During these last couple of decades, media highlighted scalable business like Amazon, Facebook, Tesla, etc. As a result, there is a huge attention on people like Bezos, Zuckerberg, Musk etc. This created a zeitgeist, that business should scale up at any cost. Do you remember the Steve Jobs mania some years ago?

But in real life, for every mega business magnate of this caliber, there are dozens of millions smaller entrepreneurs worldwide who are fighting to build their own wealth, to support themselves and their families in an attempt to achieve what is now abusively called by many as ''financial freedom''.

This book from Paul Jarvis, is exactly for them. It is about staying small, and avoiding the type of growth that would come with significant risks. It is about being humble, staying out of hierarchies and time and resources consuming processes. In the end it is about ''less is more''.

It is useful for all type of businesses, but in my view it is more about the new economy and internet entrepreneurs. Jarvis' life and experiences comes from the free markets of the West. However, there are millions of people who are trying in semi free, or not at all free countries. These people would need an extra push and advise to jump out from the mud.

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Re: Books to read

Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:37 am

arbusers wrote:
Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:43 am
I bought a book called ‘’How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking’’ written by Mathematician Jordan Ellenberg.
I just wanted to say thank you for this suggestion. As you said it's more for beginners but it's very entertaining and well (humorous) written. I had a good time with it, it makes also a nice present for folks who are not into probality judgements and mathematical thinking every day.
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Re: Books to read

Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:33 am

''The Little Book that still beats the Market'' by Joel Greenblatt

Ignorant and naive people will speak about Kiyosaki's book ''Rich dad, poor dad''. This is the maximum they could get towards their financial freedom. But what if you have the mental capacity to move one step further? I tell you that mental capacity is not enough, you also need the strength of character. So if you have both, this book is for you.

It will teach you an easy to understand and implement formula about investing in the US stock markets. It will take you by the hand, and it will treat you like a teenager with examples that will make you think 1 step at a time. It starts with the school guy that needs to make an extra buck and it ends with a conscious and mature investor. That could be you.

It could be titled ''Investments for Dummies'' but who the heck would agree being a dummy to buy and read the book. The formula can be back tested and proves working, but even like this, a blue print is not enough. You need the strength of character to invest like Greenblatt. The author recognises that most of the people who read the book, will eventually give up, simply because they dont have that character.

I my self would put 2 asterisks in the book.
1st. After spending thousands of hours on screens, and studying 100s of books, I believe that even Greenblatt's strategy can be beaten. And I m sure Greenblatt is not revealing the whole of his thinking. Probably this is the gift to his sons.
2nd. This formula, like every other formula will not work as it should in times of once in a life time events. But for sure, it will not damage you the way others will be damaged if not having a plan.

Greenblatt wrote many books. This is the one to focus on. Thank me later.

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Re: Books to read

Sun Apr 30, 2023 3:15 pm

''Brothers Karamazov'' by Fyodor Dostoevsky

I already declared the ''History of the Peloponnesian War'' by Thucydides as the best book ever written. ''Brothers Karamazov'' by Fyodor Dostoevsky is the book that seriously challenged this position, and I will explain why.

I decided to read the anthology of Dostoevsky, a task that would require at least a year of reading. I wanted to travel with Dostoevsky as he was ageing, and for this, i needed to read his best books according to the year of publishment, and have a good knowledge of his biography. I started with ''Crime and Punishment'', a book that I firstly read in my early 20s. Back then, I was not able to realise the value. A quarter of a century later, I was amazed. I continued with ''The Idiot''. I was able to connect the dots only at the last 5-6 pages of the book, and I am so happy I did, because most readers will not even find the dots. I moved forward to ''Demons'', thinking this was his best book, and my reading came to a climax with the ''Brothers Karamazov''.

This book requires a minimum of 6th months in order to read, understand and digest. Some people will never understand the plot, the psychosynthesis and idiosyncrasy of the heroes. Even now, I am not sure if I understood the complete range of matters touched in the book. I firstly thought of the wrong Brother being the murderer of his father. Then my position moved to the mainstream opinion of who the murderer was. In the end, I have doubts, and my final opinion disagrees with Wikipedia and the vast majority of readers.

After finishing any book from Dostoevsky, there is a question coming to my mind. He wrote his best books between 1866 and 1882. What happened to his heroes in 1917, when the Communist scourge found them alive? What happened to Ilyusha, a man dedicated to God, when his Russia collapsed? He should have been 53-55 years of age in 1917.

Today, I can’t suggest to anyone to read this book, unless he follows my steps and read all the Dostoevsky books I mentioned one after another, finishing with Brothers Karamazov. And of course, I hope to be able to re-read the book in 20-25 years from now, as I am more than sure I will understand something differently.

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Re: Books to read

Tue Jun 27, 2023 6:26 am

arbusers wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:26 am
''The Intelligent Investor'' by Benjamin Graham
Graham is teaching value investing. You will be surprised by the similarities between value investing and value betting.
To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework. According to Graham, since you cannot predict the behavior of the markets, you must learn how to predict and control your own behavior. The intelligent investor is predominantly defined by the time willing to sacrifice in order to educate himself.
The latest edition of this book comes together with commenting by Jason Zweig. Zweig is making this book more readable, even to people with extremely limited knowledge of investing.
I must warn our members. My feeling is that Graham wrote this book, having in mind that you should invest in democracies with strong institutions. If your country is a banana republic, or a crypto-communistic country declaring itself a western democracy, then this book is for you, if and only if, you are determined to invest in a real democracy, overseas, or away from home.

I had a very pleasant talk with one of our members the other day that seemed to be focusing disproportionally on value investing as described by Benjamin Graham. I believe people and investors do not get right Benjamin Graham. Popular myths around value investing and especially around Warren Buffett do not help them understand what the value of this book is.

So let me clarify some things hoping that we put everything in the position deserved.

Graham wrote his first book ''Security analysis'' in 1934 where he mentioned his first examples of value investing. He then revisited these examples in 1949 when he wrote ''The Intelligent investor''. The book was re-published and updated in 1954, 1965 and 1972. The edition we all read is the one of 1972. Graham died in 1976.

Before he died, Graham was asked if he still believed in his strategy of stock picking that I would conclude in the following short phrase: ''When a company is available on the market at a price which is at a discount to its intrinsic value, a "margin of safety" exists, which makes it suitable for investment''.

He answered ''No, that was effective 40 years ago''.

What changed since then? Information and analysis became available to everyone with a computer, or everyone able to read the pink pages of every investment newspaper. Graham's ways worked perfectly, when grass root information and analysis was conducted by an extremely limited number of people.

In the review of the book that I provided 3 years ago (time flies), I focused only in the ''sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework''. And this is where this book should end. I did not mention anything about the analysis Graham suggested, simply because I do not believe in it.

If you follow the example of Graham today, you will not find any company suitable for investment, with an exception of a company that would be under fraud scrutiny ready to get de-listed from the stock markets.

I know, my opinion is unpopular and most people will disagree, but this is what I think about the book as part of my thought process.
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Re: Books to read

Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:51 am

''Economics in One Lesson'' by Henri Hazlitt

Do you believe the war in Ukraine is responsible for the high prices you pay in the super markets or the price of fuels? Answer this question now, before you continue reading this post.

This book was written in 1946 but it will be relevant for centuries. It explains in a very simple way the economic phenomena that surround us. I would say Hazlitt made it that simple that even high school students will get it. So if you think Economics are bored and not for you, maybe this is your last chance for an easy introduction. It is a best seller, so most probably it is translated to your language too if English is not your first.

I have spoken several times about the narratives and the way they captivate our thought process in order not to understand reality and stop us from grabbing the chance in front of us, or not fight the dangers we face. One of these narratives is telling us the war in Ukraine is responsible for the high inflation we face. Lately, some prominent figures wrote articles and made videos saying that Taylor Swift's and Beyonce's world tours are responsible for the inflation is Sweden and elsewhere. Give me a brake please.

The only thing that causes inflation, is money printing. No war in human history created inflation per se. It was the decision to cut fresh fiat currency that created devaluation. Thus, the war in Ukraine is not the reason for high fuel prices in your country, unless you are a Russian or a Ukrainian. It is the money printing orgy that politicians did during and after the pandemics that drove prices up.

This book is a critical analysis of economic fallacies that are prevalent and have become the new orthodoxy, especially with the Modern Money Mechanics. It will clear your thoughts from dominant narratives and will help you understand the economic phenomena around us.

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Re: Books to read

Mon Jul 24, 2023 12:56 pm

1. atlas shrugged - aynd rand
2. the fountainhead - aynd rand
3. zarathustra - nietzsche
4. ecce homo - nietzsche
5. think and grow rich - napoleon hill
6 . Les Miserables - victor hygo
7. The Count of Monte Cristo - alexandre dumas
8. The Alchemist - paulo coelho

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