This happens more often with player props but also with totals.
Is there a quick way to find the value off for example:
Patrick Mahomes over 235 yards at -110
If a sharp book has him over 255 at -110
How would you go about calculating expected value?
Calculating line difference value
- neopas
- Pro
- Karma: 53
Post
Re: Calculating line difference value
Not sure if I understand the question. But you could use an alert service or an odds comparison service.
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arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 27
Post
While I don't exactly model that kind of market and therefore can't give you a reasonable personal point of view on the existence or not of a hypothetical value of that market (such as O/U XXX YDS/Mahomes/(-110)), let me share that there is no easy and reliable way to find hypothetical value.
In fact, there is a very "exhausting" way to find a very accurate hypothetical value in Football and also in whatever kind of Sport by watching matches, raising sporting expertise in the timeline, gathering the relevant data, and practicing modeling on your own. At the black box output, you would calculate some probabilities at the desired confidence interval (let's say > YY %), and when your own probabilities/odds are better calculated than the odds-makers' ones, and if they give you a better return than your fair odds imply, you can attack that market via various ways, for example, your personal implementations of the Kelly Criterion.
That's simply perfect in the long run only, and maybe in the medium term. Totals/MoneyLine/Spreads are covered that way in Football, but those kinds of methods are also very useful in Baseball, Soccer, Cricket, Horses, Basketball and so on, depending on your sporting expertise, sporting enjoyment of watching the game/racing, personal priorities and perhaps the biggest problem: free time available for pretty serious backtesting/modeling and experimenting of better tune-ups of your tools in order to invent something better. The enjoyment of the process is endless (summarizing good forecasts generated by the Model plus the market results in the very long run), and that's why the quotation marks appear earlier in that posting.
By the way, Chiefs are not only Kelce, Mahomes, Butker and so forth. In my opinion, the fine-tuning of the day-to-day team basis is up to Andy Reid all those years. I model several different kinds of Sports and I think the quality of Reid's decisions and their appropriate timing are influencing over Kansas City similar to Carlo Ancelotti's decisions over a Soccer team or Stephen Fleming's ones (Cricket).
But Reid is not a magician itself. I spotted the Chiefs had some unusual defensive issues as reigning Super Bowl champions in the 2024 preseason tournament, remember the match vs the Lions and what happened in the last moments of that game (August), 24:23.
Due to the pre-assessment of the defensive actions, I didn't find value at all in the offered odds for Baltimore @ Kansas City. But the probability of home success was pretty clear according to the Model. Simply the calculated probability of something unacceptable in the Chiefs' defense destroyed the conditional value in the ML odds, offered in favor of the home team.
The ease with which Henry scored the first touchdown for the Baltimore Ravens vs the Super Bowl holders was incredible, and Reid actually saved Kansas City after the initial lethargy.
The ghost of preseason poor defense spotted vs the Detroit Lions appeared as expected, and I'm still wondering about the Ravens' action in the very last second in case that was not an incomplete pass but a touchdown, what exactly was coming next?
By the way, look at the spread odds for the actual result 20:27 and those for 26:27 if a touchdown was awarded, but consider an additional point or a two was the next for Baltimore? Win? Loss? Overtime? The probabilities?
Re: Calculating line difference value
Alchemist315 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 10:02 pmThis happens more often with player props but also with totals.
Is there a quick way to find the value off for example:
Patrick Mahomes over 235 yards at -110
If a sharp book has him over 255 at -110
How would you go about calculating expected value?
While I don't exactly model that kind of market and therefore can't give you a reasonable personal point of view on the existence or not of a hypothetical value of that market (such as O/U XXX YDS/Mahomes/(-110)), let me share that there is no easy and reliable way to find hypothetical value.
In fact, there is a very "exhausting" way to find a very accurate hypothetical value in Football and also in whatever kind of Sport by watching matches, raising sporting expertise in the timeline, gathering the relevant data, and practicing modeling on your own. At the black box output, you would calculate some probabilities at the desired confidence interval (let's say > YY %), and when your own probabilities/odds are better calculated than the odds-makers' ones, and if they give you a better return than your fair odds imply, you can attack that market via various ways, for example, your personal implementations of the Kelly Criterion.
That's simply perfect in the long run only, and maybe in the medium term. Totals/MoneyLine/Spreads are covered that way in Football, but those kinds of methods are also very useful in Baseball, Soccer, Cricket, Horses, Basketball and so on, depending on your sporting expertise, sporting enjoyment of watching the game/racing, personal priorities and perhaps the biggest problem: free time available for pretty serious backtesting/modeling and experimenting of better tune-ups of your tools in order to invent something better. The enjoyment of the process is endless (summarizing good forecasts generated by the Model plus the market results in the very long run), and that's why the quotation marks appear earlier in that posting.
By the way, Chiefs are not only Kelce, Mahomes, Butker and so forth. In my opinion, the fine-tuning of the day-to-day team basis is up to Andy Reid all those years. I model several different kinds of Sports and I think the quality of Reid's decisions and their appropriate timing are influencing over Kansas City similar to Carlo Ancelotti's decisions over a Soccer team or Stephen Fleming's ones (Cricket).
But Reid is not a magician itself. I spotted the Chiefs had some unusual defensive issues as reigning Super Bowl champions in the 2024 preseason tournament, remember the match vs the Lions and what happened in the last moments of that game (August), 24:23.
Due to the pre-assessment of the defensive actions, I didn't find value at all in the offered odds for Baltimore @ Kansas City. But the probability of home success was pretty clear according to the Model. Simply the calculated probability of something unacceptable in the Chiefs' defense destroyed the conditional value in the ML odds, offered in favor of the home team.
The ease with which Henry scored the first touchdown for the Baltimore Ravens vs the Super Bowl holders was incredible, and Reid actually saved Kansas City after the initial lethargy.
The ghost of preseason poor defense spotted vs the Detroit Lions appeared as expected, and I'm still wondering about the Ravens' action in the very last second in case that was not an incomplete pass but a touchdown, what exactly was coming next?
By the way, look at the spread odds for the actual result 20:27 and those for 26:27 if a touchdown was awarded, but consider an additional point or a two was the next for Baltimore? Win? Loss? Overtime? The probabilities?
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