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Captain's log 2017

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:56 pm

campeones wrote:
Arbusers wrote: This year more players reported that they didn't have a personal best. This is a trend that started in 2016 and now accelerating.
You have to go to extremes and pursue every chance appearing anywhere in the world to maintain profits. I m speaking with several people from all over and here is what I can report.
Romania (home country) is dead from arbing's point of view. People are moving to locals and some of them are already finding new chances brought by regulation. Money is not that easy to be made like before.
Spain (2nd home) is dead for some years now.
Colombia and South America (newest home) is flourishing. Unbelievable chances in a Virgin land. I m starting to feel like Columbus.
UK (most friends) is dying fast. This is not the time to take 5k in bonus, nor arb like no tomorrow in StanJames and WillHill, not to run into a Betfred and Ladbrokes shop to place 1000s bets.
Interested to know more about arbing in South America?  ::)
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:08 pm

neopas wrote: what if a bookmaker decides to decapitate all winning accounts? What if they are able to identify trends and winning strategies? Even if bot's activity resembles to normal player's behaviour?
No bookmaker will decapitate all winnings accounts. Absolutely no bookmaker is able to suffer the loss of so many accounts. After all, many winning accounts have a great potential to become losing accounts and this is the point where each bookmaker must display capabilities.
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:27 am

For many reasons bots are not able to be integrated in a number of bookmakers. To be realistic, bots are now working for 10-15 bookmakers, 3-4 of them are offering the biggest chances/volumes and just 1 is the king (for now).
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:53 am

Value betting bots will provoke a reaction from bookmaker sooner or later. You can't expect to milk the cow for years. There is an expiration date for value betting. The comparison between arbing bots and value betting bots has no real meaning. Arbing bots have been around for some years and there is no significant threat on the horizon. Those who invest time and energy in bots should focus on arbitrage rather than value betting.
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:45 am

Arbusers wrote: We are informed that lavish contracts have been awarded to software providers in order to tackle the use of bots. We expect to see their results in the coming months. As a last line of defence bookmakers could limit and neutralise accounts not allowing them to continue betting. On the other hand it seems that a growing number of players are depended on the use of bots that now became their only source of profits. We urge these players to search for alternative ways of smart gambling before kicked out of business when previous mentioned contracts materialise to results.
and
Arbusers wrote: We now see locusts jumping to the bot industry, attacking very specific bookmakers that in the end will have to react violently in order to protect their interests. As many people are now depending on bots, locusts are bringing the expiration date of many bots closer. We fear that many players will stop business abruptly when a couple of bookmakers tackles bots.
How prophetic!
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:01 pm

It is not prophetic, it is the logical course of events. You can't expect bookmakers to bleed like that.
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:37 pm

blackjack wrote: it is the logical course of events.
Maybe it is but he described accurately what we see today. Is it the end of the value betting with bots?
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:02 pm

Can I ask what happened?  I personally don't use bots...
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:08 pm

Alfa1234 wrote: I personally don't use bots...
You are that guy that doesn't use them.
A well known bookmaker is locking accounts that operate with bots, limits to 0, requests for many documents and in some cases allows withdrawals only to bank accounts.
Arbusers wrote: and just 1 is the king (for now).
This bookmaker is key to the operation of bots. I m not revealing the name as I see everyone keeping it secret for a reason.
Last edited by neopas on Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Mon Feb 26, 2018 5:32 pm

We estimate that the average arb of 2016 with the use of bots and sharp bookmakers was near 0.18%. For 2017, the average arb is around 0.14% forcing players to place larger bets and search for bigger limits than those provided by sharp bookmakers, in order to maintain the same level of profits. This form of smart gambling is the one that pays a well deserved dividend to the players, who enjoy the fruits of their ingeniousness.
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:46 pm

Arbusers wrote: You are right ilovethisforum. We see volumes getting away from traditional bookmakers to cryptocurrency bookmakers. I am not sure if this is an advantage or disadvantage of the smart gambling action. It will take some time until we are able to determine.
But...
ilovethisforum wrote: Because of the blockchain technology
Even though Blockchain technology is offering tremendous opportunities, it is blockchain itself that might be an obstacle. I m afraid the vast majority of people do not realise this and this includes the majority of people investing in cryptocurrencies.
Can you please elaborate on the highlighted text? What kind of obstacles are you referring to and what do you think the vast majority don't realise ? Are you refering to the betting usage of cryptos or in general ?
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:08 pm

Well, contrary to what most people think when they discover blockchain technology, it's really easy to track money movements and link them to the owner with most coins, including btc (which is the main one used for cryptocurrency bookies).
Blockchain is a track record of all transactions, so unless you are aware of this and take the necessary precautions, it can be estimated how much you own, how much you move, where it comes from and where it goes, with exact amounts and dates.

About bookies cutting bots off, they are the ones doomed to fail. It's an inefficient business model whose only edge is the difficulty for bettors to access fair markets.
Sports betting market is not too different from any other form of marketplace, where people buy and sell stuff.
These shitty bookies with huge margins, no liquidity, and purely dependent on their current state of oligopoly are going down sooner or later, so better milk the cow with or without bots as much as possible.
To me this is the same as the small local store that has been around for decades until the big department store came around, with lower prices (spreads), more items (markets), financing plans (liquidity)... The small shop lasted for a while but eventually was unable to compete and had to adapt or die.

Although regulation in most developed countries is trying to keep maintain this obsolete business model, in order to keep making money out of taxes and prevent people from using companies that "pay them" offshore, this is not the natural behavior of markets, and they will have to open borders sooner or later, one way or another.

In my opinion, as long as these companies stay alive, there will be opportunities to take advantage of their inefficiencies, mainly for manual arbers, who hold the knowledge and experience.

Once the market normalices (eventually), there will be no room for manual arbitrage, the same way as there is no room for manual arbitrage on other investment markets.
So maybe bots will have a hard time in the short term, but they will be necessary eventually.

Most of my arbitrage is manual, but that does not mean that I am not very well aware that this won't last forever.
Last edited by middler on Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Captain's log 2017

Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:49 am

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