Arbusers

This is the arbusers.com annual review of the smart betting scene for the year 2018.
It is conducted in good will with hope it will contribute to the understanding of this particular field. We ll try to post a similar review each year so we have a time lapse of the smart betting scene. We advise that you take a look at the review of the previous years in our forum or youtube channel.
here and here

The use of the word Captain has no intention to imply that I m the chief or the leading character of this community that expands beyond this forum. I encourage all members to post their opinion and thus contribute to this effort.

Now let’s examine the main forms of smart betting and see how they performed during the year.
Pre game arbitrage is no longer able to maintain decent levels of profit.
Live arbitrage is resilient and will continue offering profits to the players. The psychological burden of live arbitrage is heavier than in any other form of smart betting.
Value betting is now dominant and pays back properly, according to invested time and effort. There are 2 distinct types of Value Betting. Manual, and automated Value Betting with the use of bots. We invested a lot of time money and efforts to analyse the performance of these 2 types of Value Betting. We can now say that Value Betting with bots is more productive and less stressful compared to any other way.
In the review of 2017 we alarmed all players that lavish contracts have been awarded to software providers in order to tackle the use of bots and their results were just about to materialise. Unfortunately we were very much correct and a well know bookmaker managed to neutralise the use of bots. As a result many players were exposed to risks and some of them finished their betting careers abruptly and took their losses. We strongly advise players to calculate their risks before taking any initiative. Bots are not risk free. We also advise that you read the forum for more information about the use of bots.
The scenery of the Value Betting field was completed with the launch of RebelBetting’s and Betburger’s Value Betting tools that are considered to be a good entry.
Here is arbusers.com, we continue experimenting with products and techniques by risking our own hard earned capital, and we inform our members when a good project is ready.

In the exchanges scene, during 2018 Matchbook imposed premium charges, while 21Bet caused turbulence as their exchange product was shut for almost 2 weeks and balances of their clients were frozen for months. Our forum went to extremes to secure that all referred by arbusers members would get their funds back in total and thankfully we managed to achieve this.

E-wallets became even more expensive and that was noticed by our fees sensitive community. E-wallet’s problem is, that they don't really understand who the client is and what the product is. They believe that bookmakers are the clients and players are the products, while in reality, players are the clients and bookmakers are the products. As a result, Cryptocurrencies, banks and Hawala systems are taking the lion’s share. Cash market, that was considered finished since the early nineties is now gaining momentum because of the higher fees imposed by e-wallets. This leads to a vicious spiral forcing e-wallets to raise their fees even more in order to keep their profits, while clients are moving away. The remaining clients will have to pay a premium for continuing using e-wallets. We lobby hard to stop this spiral.
A side effect of this is that several bookmakers including Pinnacle are now accepting Bitcoin payments.

Pinnacle, withdrew from Australia and several agents stopped offering Pinbet accounts to UK residents.

The UK announced that gambling tax for operators will be 21% while it remains to be seen to what extend bookmakers could absorb this burden or roll it over to players and affiliates. Many countries followed this paradigm and imposed higher taxes on gambling, proving that Soviet style taxation is still alive in Europe.
Unfair regulations, taxation and higher fees, are pushing players to grey areas.
On the other hand, the US Supreme Court under Trump’s liberal presidency, decided to legalise sports betting.

A large part of our reviews are dedicated in the low business ethics of several actors of the industry. We still consider that a proportion of profits should be set aside for legal fees, as several bookmakers are tempted to confiscate well deserved winnings especially when these winnings are at a level that wouldn’t justify the use of a solicitor.

5Dimes manager Tony, has been found dead in Costa Rica after an apparent kidnapping for ransoms.

2018 was another difficult year added in the chain but also it was the year that highlighted Value Betting as the next big thing in the smart betting scene. Maybe there is still time, and money to be made.

I wrote this annual review in good will, hoping that it will contribute to the understanding of this very particular field of arbitrage and smart gambling.

Thank you for reading.

A very well written review, and agree that things very noticeably harder this year compared to previous years.

I dont use bots so cant comment on the merits and value of them.

One thing I have noticed is drastically lower volumes and liquidity on the exchanges, Betfair in particular are way down, and their is very little "mug money" floating about compared to previous years.  Some markets that were huge and very tight in 2017 have become seriously gappy, and any offer is immediately jumped over by a £2 bot or several £2 bots!

Could someone explain what cash market is?

Things are definitely getting harder.  I believe the sharp/asian limit cuts (SBO and Pinbet forcing all agents to take a stake in their betting) have definitely influenced the business a lot as well.

crowned wrote: Could someone explain what cash market is?

Some agents and some local bookies are conducting payment in cash. Cash goes from one hand to another. In addition, some of them are offering a credit line. The type of this line can vary depending on client's relationship with the bookie, how long he has been a customer and the amount of betting. Some times the balance between the client and the bookie/agent is so ''balanced'' that it takes a lot of time before cash moves from one had to another. In some situations, the cash market comes with fees. Subsequently, some times cash market is cheaper than e-wallets, some times it is more expensive.

Alfa1234 wrote: I believe the sharp/asian limit cuts (SBO and Pinbet forcing all agents to take a stake in their betting) have definitely influenced the business a lot as well.

Thank you for mentioning this Alfa. It was my mistake not to include it in the review.

As abovementioned things are getting harder but I can compare our business to antiviruses. They upgrade them every day but some people still can find a way to get through firewalls. Bookies may do whatever they want but it's like a circle and if you are determined enough you will find a way to make money, hundred percent sure about that.

Last months Betfair liquidity decrease did upset me a lot but Im full time value bettor so I had to adapt and I did. I find bookies mistakes on daily basis over and over again so they may employ best traders they want but they still will be humans and make mistakes they want it or not. 

Good post Alex.

Alfa1234 wrote: Things are definitely getting harder.

This is the first review that leaves a ray of light in the end. All other reviews were pessimistic, but not this one. At least this is how I understand it.

Arbusers wrote: We lobby hard to stop this spiral.

What do you mean with this Boss?

Confirm, very good review. Thank you!

Thanks for the yearly review Arbusers! I believe the next big development for the smart players and betting industry is the decentralized betting exchanges.In 2019-2020 we could see platforms like bookie pro coming to market. It could be a game changer.

Great review. As on a yearly basis of betting industry: evolve or die. Those that are able to adapt fastest - enjoys the sweetest fruits.

AlexNotman1 wrote: I find bookies mistakes on daily basis over and over again so they may employ best traders they want but they still will be humans and make mistakes they want it or not.

That's really what it comes down to, doesn't it? Mistakes. Value betting is really just about finding mistakes made by Books, or more often, Books that are slow to adjust their lines.

I expect Books are going to get smarter, faster and more automated to make sure they don't get caught moving too slowly. Of course the Bots can move fast also.

What would you do if you were a Book? I suppose the Books could get smarter and faster at identifying and blocking the Bots and banning the manual Value Bettors.

The answer is a decentralized betting exchange that basically eliminates the Books edge and juice. Then it's just bettor vs bettor with a fair line, and maybe the exchange takes a very small %. Maybe Matchbook, Betfair and some others are close to that. There may be some Bitcoin Blockchain Betting Exchanges that are coming up to be even better.

barnstorm wrote: I expect Books are going to get smarter, faster and more automated to make sure they don't get caught moving too slowly. Of course the Bots can move fast also.

Even when (not if) that happens, someone will have to offer lines first. Look what is happening with almost all American spread and total markets. Only bold bookmakers and those with the best linemakers are the first to offer their lines. All the others are waiting until a balance comes in place in order to publish odds. The opening lines will always be vulnerable to sharp action.
But here, we are talking about many markets, 100s of championships and 1000s of events on a daily basis. I find it very difficult that bookmakers will be able to tackle completely sharp action. Even if they do, it is the players themselves acting irrational and speculative that will create mistakes to be exploited by the smart money.

neopas wrote:

Arbusers wrote: We lobby hard to stop this spiral.

What do you mean with this Boss?

We educate a number of actors in this industry by stressing that it is for the best interest of many, to allow smart gambling to thrive. At this point we can't say more, but our community is responsible for some of the best achievements that we all have at our disposal.

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Even if they do, it is the players themselves acting irrational and speculative that will create mistakes to be exploited by the smart money.
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Indeed, even if they are "perfect" on their lines,there will always be a huge amount of mugs or speculator or whatever that will bet heavily on an outcome and create an unbalanced book. Sport betting is like stock market but with teams instead of stocks. Even on today's stock market there are inefficiencies and there always will be because of various reasons. So if there are still inefficiencies on stock market with so many smart people and sophisticated algos, imagine the amount of ineffiency that there are in a market that "limits" and bans smart action. With this business model, sports betting industry will always be inefficient,even if they will use a computer with the hashpower of bitcoin network Enjoy it!

Alfa1234 wrote: Things are definitely getting harder.  I believe the sharp/asian limit cuts (SBO and Pinbet forcing all agents to take a stake in their betting) have definitely influenced the business a lot as well.

Limits are even lower before the year is out. SBO now offers some ridiculous limits.