Confused

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edvella
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Confused

Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:57 am

Hi,

Image
In this picture you can see an asian handicap 0.25 surebet between Borussia M and O Marseille.

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I have to select bet 1 in 10bet 1.93. Please which is the right bet in this picture?
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Re: Confused

Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:34 pm

The odd in 10bet dropped to 1.92. So, you should bet in +0.25 odd 1.92 (Asians)
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Re: Confused

Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:55 pm

Thanks and what is the +0.25 odd 1.89 above? that's why i am confused!
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Re: Confused

Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:07 pm

What's the 2.8 price on Pinnacle? This can't be for either +0.25,-0.25 AH as that would create a huge arb. You shouldn't bet here unless you know what's going on.

In addition you can't have -0.25 priced at 1.95 and +0.25 at 1.92 on the same site for the same team. If the prices for 0,0 and -0.5,+0.5 are right here then +0.25 needs to be priced lower and that would create a more realistic arb with pinnacle. The +0.25 price is incorrect.
Last edited by qbet on Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Confused

Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:39 pm

For the same team you must have -0.5 > - 0.25 > 0.0 > 0.25 etc (on the same site). So + 0.25 must be lower than 1.63 and probably that wouldn't create an arb with pinny at all. Maybe the 2.8 is the pinnacle price for draw no bet as (1.63, 2.8 ) would be a realistic arb.
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Re: Confused

Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:08 am

I am not going to discuss if the odds are right or wrong (qbet did a good analysis).
Just to tell edvella how to recognize the arbitrage shown (I think on BMBets):

If the screen shows Asian handicap 0.25 it means the local team +0.25 (the away team -0.25).
Otherwise it could say Asian handicap -0.25, which would mean the local team -0,25 (the away team +0.25)

As this case is Asian Handicap 0.25, you must look at Monchengladbach (local team) +0.25 (this is the 1.92). It is very common (at least in my experience) when you find arbs in BMbets involving 10Bet that the odds have 0.01 difference. Not big deal.

These handicaps (+0.25, +0.75, etc.) are  more difficult than the usual (+0.5, +1.5, etc.) as the bet is splitted in two (+0.25 = +0, +0.5 or +0.75 = +0.5, +1)
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Re: Confused

Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:12 am

Thanks for your help.

Ok I have to select +0.25 (1.92). But why not the other one +0.25 (1.89)? I marked them in red in this picture.

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Last edited by edvella on Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Confused

Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:14 pm

The "+0.25" at 1.89 adds 0.25 goals to Marseille (because it is show below the -0.25, meaning it's the away team)
The "+0.25" at 1.92 adds 0.25 goals to Monchengladbach (because it is shown above the -0.25, meaning it's the local team)

They are different bets. You cannot choose what you want :-).
You must choose the one that presents the arbitrage with Pinnacle.
The arbritrage shown on the alert service is +0.25 (which means +0.25 to the local team), that's why you have to choose +0.25 to Monchengladbach.
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