Arbusers

dealer wins wrote: Im back to full time "work"now.  I have noticed Betfair markets becoming much stronger and more liquid, which was the last thing is was expecting.  My first 2 weeks back earnings are similar to pre covid.

Which ones? Looking at today's football schedule, except from Japan, there are two games where more than 5k is matched. I would say (speaking about football) its same crap as it was, just not getting worse (for now).

AlexNotman1 wrote:

dealer wins wrote: Im back to full time "work"now.  I have noticed Betfair markets becoming much stronger and more liquid, which was the last thing is was expecting.  My first 2 weeks back earnings are similar to pre covid.

Which ones? Looking at today's football schedule, except from Japan, there are two games where more than 5k is matched. I would say (speaking about football) its same crap as it was, just not getting worse (for now).

you have no patience, a lion does not eat a wildebeest every day and some days he get's a buffalo but accepts some days he starves.

you will soon Alexnotman have many wildebeest and buffalo if you are good at your job? but maybe? if you were good at your job you wouldn't be complaining as you are now and before it was about locusts, if as it appears you are primarily a football arber who needs decent liquidity on Betfair then you should be resting now and waiting.

The real threat is 2021 Financial Crisis which will be the result of Coronavirus restrictions. It will be more devastating then virus itself. Many bookmakers may go bankrupt. Better not keep much funds in bookmakers during this period. Better be careful.

AlexNotman1 wrote:

dealer wins wrote: Im back to full time "work"now.  I have noticed Betfair markets becoming much stronger and more liquid, which was the last thing is was expecting.  My first 2 weeks back earnings are similar to pre covid.

Which ones? Looking at today's football schedule, except from Japan, there are two games where more than 5k is matched. I would say (speaking about football) its same crap as it was, just not getting worse (for now).

Tennis, Darts and Cricket mainly for me.

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: The real threat is 2021 Financial Crisis which will be the result of Coronavirus restrictions. It will be more devastating then virus itself. Many bookmakers may go bankrupt. Better not keep much funds in bookmakers during this period. Better be careful.

Yeah, the shit gonna hit the fan next year, big big time!!!!

arbusers wrote: So far, I see well-respected companies and individuals, struggling to stay alive ...

A typical month before COVID19 at my local shop betting scene, described in terms of ambient sounds:
- Week 1: the sound of money bills being loaded into the betting machines
- Week 2: the sound of coins dropping into the betting machines
- Week 3: the sound of clinking bottles
- Week 4: the sound of the clerk's voice who feels lonely and desperately wants a chat

A typical month now:
- Quite the same

There are no figures to substatiate this observation, but it just seems that the situation is as favorable to the casino owners now, as it was in the beginning of this year by judging the activity there. With the lack of sports and markets, there may be less casual gamblers, but the full-time gamblers do not miss out. It is also very noticeable how popular the virtual soccer and virtual tennis tournaments have become. So as far as betting shops go, the monthly paychecks still seem to find their way to the casino vault one way or another.

Locusts fail to realize that the first damage is caused to themselves and then to all others. Cipolla at his best.

Thats why there is huge difference between smart boys and wise man.

Games starting to be cancelled again.

After the big Juve vs Napoli game, a couple of Irish, Polish and Dutch games are off because of Covid this weekend.

Do we think there will be far more cancellations or any leagues paused?
English leagues are probably most important for us - most liquid on the exchanges.

Hopefully teams will be forced to field any sort of side or forfeit - this will result in far more games going ahead and more opportunities for us.

for this covid games.. someone get news about positive tested players .. someone sell the news at asians and odds will drop .. value bets will come, value bets we bet... everyone should receive part of profits expekt bookmakers.. this is my single point of view

Correct kustef - but the last thing we want is a soft to notice we have taken big value and restrict us, then the game is cancelled anyway.

For sure it's a good idea to educate ourselves on the rules for each league so we don't make this mistake.

After researching postponed games this weekend I believe the following are the rules in each country;

Belgium - if over 7 players are infected
France - if less than 20 players from squad of 30 are negative
Spain - no idea, but Alcorcon game was cancelled with only 4 positivies

2020 is out and we now have the overall picture of the year. Of course we do not have access to data from bookmakers, but we do have a very good picture from ewallet volumes, agent volumes, alert services usage, numerous bots, and of course the market sentiment as presented from our members.

I spoke before about the impact of Bet365's decision to dump ewallets. That belongs in the past now. My estimations include only the impact from Covid19. To be more accurate, I compare the situation as it was in February 2020, which was the last month of normality, with the situation of December 2020.

1. Ewallets, down 40%. It is fair to say that it is not only Covid19 that had an impact, but also wallets business and managerial decisions on various matters, like risk, KYC and market approach. The smart bettor is looking for other payment means.
2. Agents, down 10%. Surprisingly they are resilient and they have enough reserves.
3. Alert services usage, down 30%. Of course the quality of service offered by alert services is playing a major role, but I believe this is the most important factor that shows that some people are kicked out of business. Maybe 30% of arbers and value bettors are out of business. But in my view arbers were damaged far more than value bettors.
4. Bots, up 40%. This is for the bots that still operate. The trend is accelerating. We covered bots in our annual reviews, but seems to me in the end they will take the lion's share from the market.

Overall sentiment. There are still restrictions and lockdowns. Probably there is no exception in Europe, all betting shops are closed and that has an impact on online activities as well. Further normalisation might come after April/May 2021 when the good weather and vaccination pushes away the virus. Many people left smart betting business. Others are struggling to stay alive. Most of the people didn't manage to have an annual personal best in 2020. But at the same time, we see newcomers who are testing the waters and looking if there is any space left for profits in this industry.
Overall figure: -30%.

Of course this is an average and the resultant of many factors. It doesn't reflect personal stories that would vary grossly.

I do my math comparing 2020 to 2019:
same money amount spent for bov and bb
less cashback from bia, maybe -30%
gain -18%
not significant variation on ewallets
no bots, only arbing and sharbing

arbusers wrote: Probably there is no exception in Europe, all betting shops are closed and that has an impact on online activities as well.

Don't know about alert services and e-wallets, but I'll correct you on that. Lots of betting shops were open in December and are open at the moment as well. I'll name a few countries where there are open shops, probably there are more - Germany, Austria, Belgium, Malta.

Which shops are open in Austria? They are all all closed. Austria is in lockdown, the only way you can bet with cash is on the betting machines in petrol stations and tobacco shops.