Arbusers

I find this Eurobasket an excellent trading event.
Previous Eurobaskets was mainly about arbing, but this one is only trading.
Anyone else?

Of course, liquidity basketball markets are ideal for trading purposes.
See Serbia and Greece's matches today.

It is not only Eurobasket, it is not only Serbia's and Greece's games.
This is going on for 5-6 years now, maybe even more, with NBA, Euroleague, and the big European championships namely Greece, Spain, Italy.
Exclude the games where the 2nd team plays, this is easy to predict in NBA, pick up teams with a medium to small difference in power, set your stop loss and there you have your trading event.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 12, 2022 6:53 am

It is not only Eurobasket, it is not only Serbia's and Greece's games.
This is going on for 5-6 years now, maybe even more, with NBA, Euroleague, and the big European championships namely Greece, Spain, Italy.
Exclude the games where the 2nd team plays, this is easy to predict in NBA, pick up teams with a medium to small difference in power, set your stop loss and there you have your trading event.

@ Arbusers,
Thank you for that comment. You are absolutely right about the trade here. In addition, I personally combine this in some ratios with some very well-argued value betting positions (mostly technical plus fundamentals). For some events in the NCAAB and selected non-major leagues, when my criteria are covered, I generally practice primarily the value betting approach. The results are OK in the long run for selected by the criteria items. However, I look for better value betting results when it comes to short-term results. That's not related to the variance, but the classy info processing. The NCAAB-related information and general data set are so big for me and I often get errors in the correct estimates so far (I haven't got much time for all market estimates).
The principle "I know that I know nothing" helps me a lot, but it takes thousands of samples and events, and no results are guaranteed.

I (still) play only prematch in shops. I have been doing that since 2016.

Always looking forward to the beginning of the basketball season, October and November are great months with lots of activity. Maybe it is because the bookmakers are caught off guard more often after a long summer - new season, many uncertainties with the teams. Once the playoffs start in the spring, it seems like prematch basketball is less rewarding in general.
I am a bit impatient this year, wanting the EuroBasket to end, so that the national leagues can start. Much more games. That's where I usually find great value.

I have a peculiar pattern when comparing basketball (and hockey) with the rest of the sports. If I divide the prematch bets into 2 groups,
1. Less than 1 hour to game start
2. More than 1 hour to game start,
I seem to have had much higher yields close to the game start for basket and hockey. For football (soccer) it is the opposite. When including all sports, it kind of averages out.

For this reason, starting more than a year ago, I have increased the stakes when there are large price drops just before game start in basket and hockey and I have been cautious when it happens way before game start. For soccer, I have had quite the opposite approach.

I know that it may not be statistical significant, that variance (as always) can play a big role and that recent results are not comparable due to changed approaches, but still ...

Are you also much more sceptic about large price swings way before game start, especially when it comes to basketball?

Thank you VidaBlue for the detailed and informative post.
Over the years I have never gone into an analysis like yours. My bad I guess. I was only based on empirical repetition that formed in me over the years of doing again and again the same things. Obviously this is an area of mental errors for me.
Maybe it would worth a lot to have a detailed weekly time table that would dictate where to focus depending on the day and the time that we stay in front of the computer. That would demand a lot of time and effort to organise, but after making it operative it would pay back massively. It would also pinpoint what are the best times to take a rest. In the end it would make the €/hour ratio much better.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 12, 2022 6:53 am

It is not only Eurobasket, it is not only Serbia's and Greece's games.
This is going on for 5-6 years now, maybe even more, with NBA, Euroleague, and the big European championships namely Greece, Spain, Italy.
Exclude the games where the 2nd team plays, this is easy to predict in NBA, pick up teams with a medium to small difference in power, set your stop loss and there you have your trading event.

And how would you execute these trading events? I mean, give us a real life example. Is knowledge of the game needed?

@ VidaBlue, thank you for sharing your experience, much appreciated as usual.
@ Crowned,
I personally process all the collected data (capabilities of individual players plus current tactics of observed coaching staffs in in-play mode). Later, I make different assessments regarding the different probabilities and when the triggers occur, I make some positions. Again, the NCAAB is so hard for me right now that I need to learn more about this league. But most liquid leagues are easier to trade.

@ Crowned,
Don't you think, that in some similar game cases there are some nuances in the approaches of the coaches like Pablo Laso, Phil Jackson, Želimir Obradović, Andreas Pistiolis, Dimitrios Itoudis, Georgios Bartzokas, Rosen Barchovski? Hopefully, you'll be skyrocketing here in basketball betting and you'll turn in some advice here in the forum.

@arb12, thank you for the advise, but still my question is not answered. You spoke about triggers. What are these triggers and how do they occur? From what you say I understand that you have a very deep knowledge of the game. You know the peculiarities of the coaches mentioned. How would anyone trade basketball with out going that deep in the game? The knowledge you have demands years and years of concentration.

Knowledge of the game is needed no matter which sport you trade on. I am not implying you should go that deep as arb12 described. No. But you have to at least know what the rules are for every game. I played basketball like millions of European teenagers in the 80s and 90s and I know how it feels, what can be done, what can't be done. I don't believe I need anything more to ''know the game''.
Don't expect me to take you by the hand and show you how to trade on basketball. Just watch this Eurobasket and you will find out what I am talking about. Even in games where you have a clear favourite, this favourite is challenged, and these challenges are reflecting on the in play odds. Upsets and turn arounds are happening all the time. In a very specific game of this tournament, it happened 4 times. You can imagine what trading (and arbing) paradise I am talking about.
However, I must say there is an asterisk in this tournament. I know it sounds as a cliche, but referees, became the scourge of the game. It is about time they bring American referees in Europe, or, even better, create the basketball version of VAR.

Thank you all for your replies and excellent advise. So far I had only football and tennis in my trading radar. I am now adding Basketball in the list.

crowned wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:38 am

@arb12, thank you for the advise, but still my question is not answered. You spoke about triggers. What are these triggers and how do they occur? From what you say I understand that you have a very deep knowledge of the game. You know the peculiarities of the coaches mentioned. How would anyone trade basketball with out going that deep in the game? The knowledge you have demands years and years of concentration.

@ Crowned,
First - a direct answer to your question. The triggers that show you when to intervene in the markets are set by your own model (tested long term) depending only on you. Generally, you can set them based on data flow criteria or non-quantitative data criteria (subjective perception if you read the game pretty well), or some kind of time-proven combination. Let me explain this briefly.


The type of markets, chosen by you, is very important. The Handicap (point spread), The Moneyline, and the total number of points to be scored, have quite different requirements, but at the same time, there are some strong logical correlations between them in terms of initial odds if you prefer pre-match bets. Here depending on your constructed probabilities converted into odds, you can attack some lines if you spot some value. If you are participating in live mode, you need to read the game pretty well and build your probabilities very quickly on the fly. In addition, the stake amount for each position (opening, closing) should be calculated in accordance with the calculated by you risk and expected value, and cover the predetermined business plan for each game as a general rule.

As the Admin said in the previous post, the deepest knowledge is not required, but perceiving beyond the basics and limits of the game can add positive EV for this business if you know what to look for and how to interpret those exactly (data flow and/ or the fundamentals).

Let's assume, that you spot some value according to your criteria and put possible positions regarding Academic Bultex and Ankara Kolejliler. You may very likely have almost no information about those teams, but just process some data and some basic oversimplified so-called "Stats" from the limited information about these teams (such as Win/Loss ratio, winning streak, point differential, and other published "information"), or some news assessment (like new capable players in the team, something about the coach, the owner, punishment by the federation, etc.). Mainly value bets and hedging positions are possible here. If you are deeply specialized in some specific markets/niches, you are likely to cash-in on a regular basis, provided that your operations are better than the agencies' odds. Might be worth looking at Japanese and Taiwanese basketball if you want.

In bigger and well-known leagues like VTB, you can improve more accessible data analysis and / or deeper fundamental evaluation and make a better rationale behind the positions you entered. For example, the hypothetical market positions in some markets regarding Avtodor Saratov.
Let's say you participate in larger markets in terms of volume. In the very close past period, there were some odds discrepancies in some appearances of the Promitheas Patras team. And another example – even without a very special analysis tool on your end, sometimes it's still possible to clearly see some value regarding the Meralco Bolts team.


Triggers on the aforementioned markets may be set by you through your Stats data processing and/or evaluation of important information. You can experiment with these settings that work best for you. Why not try backtesting too?

Now let's assume the deepest involvement regarding the processing of the collected data and the evaluation of the background information. For those who love games, deep concentration and an extended view of the global picture are natural states, there is no difficult effort at all. In my opinion, this can increase the expected value for you, provided you know what you're doing, but there are two facts about rookies: much more intensive data processing / information processing, can't bring you a linear increase in positive expected value (the dependence is similar to exponential if it exists at all), and secondly, very often the number of market triggers showing opening points / exit points on the market, decreases if the trigger quality criterion is leading! So, the basic "Price Action/Cold Trading" approach (when a proven EV is available) very often may generate a bigger number of trading losses and a much bigger overall profit at the end of a given period. That's a paradox at a first glance, but actually, it isn't.

In fact, this in-depth kind of analysis drives many more positions in soccer in general. Experiment, backtest and generalize. But after all, any trigger setting is up to you. Remember, nothing is guaranteed in that business.