Arbusers

@Crowned,
Some cases recently.

Case one, Eurobasket 2022,
The Bulgarian team, coached by Barchovski. The team and the coaching staff's capabilities are estimated as xxx, yyy respectively. Dee Bost, Galatasaray, under Andreas Pistiolis' governance. Pistiolis in Galatasaray usually tasked him with job X, job Y, job Z on the pitch, average implemented like X1, Y1, Z1 by Bost.
Very poor pre-tournament preparation for Dee Bost. Bost's preparation was later somewhat successfully accelerated to some extent. A bad start for him at Eurobasket. Well, in a later given game of the tournament, I spotted that the coach changed some of the tasks regarding Bost and ordered him not to attempt quick attacks and to slow down the tempo. The low-scoring pattern for him in Eurobasket, far below the level of his capabilities, remained the same, but one of the observed components (assists) is sharply on the rise from now on. Under the tactics of Pistiolis, especially the assists are much less for Bost due to some specifics of the work in the Galatasaray team.
The team's attacking phase performance between players has changed slightly since then, let's say from xxx8 to xxx9.
A quick assessment of the probability of whether it is worth adding additional positions in a particular market was done in live mode.

Case two,
In general, Vezenkov wasn't overloaded by the coaching staff with over expectations for that Eurobasket, after the hard and successful Hellenic and EuroLeague seasons for him (Olympiacos, under Bartzokas). Barchovski's approach was to build the team around his abilities while keeping Vezenkov's condition very good.
Very often this player refuses the extra rest during the match, so the coaching staff at some points, in order to protect his physical condition for the entire remaining playing time, deliberately caused some interruptions during this time. 35-39 mins on the pitch for him, at a high level.
In my opinion, coach Barchovski tried to reduce some heavy tasks for Vezenkov for a certain short period of time during a given game, while at the same time trying to order some specific support tasks from another player on the field for that period of time.
In his previous joint work with the coach Bartsokas at Barça, due to his youth and the presence of other excellent players, Vezenkov wasn't so overloaded for most of the playing time in many games. So Barchovski seems to be trying for a few minutes to switch Vezenkov into this mode, and in the later phases of this particular match to attack, counting on him not to tire very much at the end.
But almost all the rest of the Bulgarian team simply failed in the assigned tasks for the specific time period. Quickly estimated and construct probabilities for some additional positions, let's say in the spread market. And so on.

Thank you both and especially arb12 for your advise. I have a lot to study.

Big congrats to Spain for having the best team.
Big congrats to France for having the biggest heart.
Big congrats to Estonia for having the best fans.
Big congrats to Poland for making the biggest upset.

On the flip side...
FIBA should find real referees next time. These guys pretending being referees failed in their role.
Germany has some serious unsportsmanlike issues, no matter how high they go they still create detestation to basketball fans and they hurt the image of the country.

My take from the best Eurobasket I can remember, and I remember many.

I think I now understand the kind of betting you guys suggest here. I will start with NBA and Euroleague this season and looking forward the World Cup in Indonesia next year.

Pay attention to the filtering of the teams. What they suggest here is not applicable to every game.

Hello again, Crowned.
Hopefully, that topic was useful for your business. When the forum threads are used in a constructive manner, they're a field to exchange various users' experiences and to hint at some interesting things to others' attention. Naturally, no one is obliged to reveal her/his invented toolkit, tested and improved in the long term. I'm grateful for every hinted idea, seen on that forum.

Crowned, let me give you some practice exercises. In your case, I mean retrospective, just for educational purposes to grow your business later. Try to watch the full videos and further analyze the basic facts and flow of technical data about these cases described below. Unfortunately, in retrospect. But if you develop, one day you will build your ins/outs very quickly for the pre-game and live positions.

Case one. Yesterday Spanish League ACB has started. Girona vs Real Madrid. Some keys milestones in the analysis and in building a business plan prior to the match and further in live mode:
- The influence of Marc Gasol, 37 y.o., post-NBA's career, and after one year in the LEB Oro Spanish division; His opt-in in overall tactical behavior for the Girona team. If you have never seen his play in NBA, I'm afraid that your analysis might be skewed to some extent.
- From the very beginning, starting the estimation of a tactical tune-up after Pablo Laso's era; The overall legacy plus some changes.
- And tens of others, of course. The data stream analysis is irreplaceable;
- Please, use calculations upon Poisson for educational purposes only. In the reality, a much more complicated development of your model's toolkit is needed. You've been warned.

Despite the big differences in the rules, high-scoring games like Volleyball and Tennis may contribute to your model.
Case two for your retrospective exercise. Yesterday's ATP Sofia Open match between Lazarov (ATP 300 something) vs Musetti (ATP 30). An ideal opportunity to learn how to play pre-game value bets, live trading, and live value bets:
- Analyze how Lazarov (Rank 334) won the previous round against Jiří Lehečka (ATP 74);
- I hope you know Musetti's typical approaches very well, if not, look at the way he played against Carlos Alcaraz in Hamburg, against Tsitsipas in Paris, and against Djokovic in Dubai earlier this year;
- How many open/exit positions would you take in live mode? Why?
- Would you have defended your positions when Lazarov broke Musetti's serve for 6:5 and therefore served for the victory in the match?
- Do you agree that the 1.4 - 1.5 odds on the Exchanges for Musetti to win the 2nd set at some stage in the second set was huge value here? Or not? Or maybe the risk calculation based on your analysis, suggesting huge value, was when Lazarov served for the victory at 6:5 in the second set? Would you risk a bet of XXX or YYY digits' stake at this stage? Why? Are you learning money management? This is an example for educational purposes, nothing more!

Case three, four, and five for your retrospective exercises.
Türkiye Ladies, volleyball matches against teams like Thailand Ladies and Dominicana Ladies recently. Just watch the matches again and answer for yourself, were there any value betting positions for Thailand and why? Or not? Were there any jewel hedging combinations when it came to Dominicana Ladies, provided you watched the impact and the purposes and implementations of the substitutions, made by Dominicana's coach during the game? Or not?
The Bulgarian women's volleyball team. Your approach in the match against Serbia recently? To hedge or not to hedge? Why? Note that the Bulgarian men's and women's volleyball teams are unfortunately not under the influence of Camillo Placì and Giovanni Guidetti today. But when you chase value in some limited cases, these teams often perform amazingly against very strong and very weak teams…

Cases when it comes to soccer. My advice is to look at the FCSB team in Romania. The huge profitable historical moment is happening now, provided you know what to watch for and how to place some positions. The last such case when it comes to value bets was recently the case of Dinamo București. Big win case…
In a very limited edition, similarly controlled chaos, if you know what to look out for, now applies when it comes to the Volos and AEK Athens teams in Greece, as opposed to the PAO and PAOK teams' relative stability cases. Further hints, I do not know how long this state of affairs will last, are some of the cases of the Hermanstadt and Aris Thessaloniki teams. Observe them yourself.
Additionally, some of Marseille's moves under Sampaoli are very interesting, or maybe not?

I hope you bring some tips back here someday. I wish you many profits.

@ Straili,
Filtering games by high-quality criteria is among the best performance tools here.
However, the ability to filter is about increasing the Return on Investment and is kind of underrated in my opinion.

In addition to the previous posting, despite the very long experience and tens of thousands of hours in front of the monitors, it's not a very easy task to filter your time and select your future market events, when it comes to analyzing and further participating predefined by the triggers positions, if your time and resources are limited, let's say between cases like those today (that list is for illustrative purpose only):
- Chelmsford Race(3yo+, 6f, Steel Duchess, Each-Way);
- River Plate vs Argentinos Juniors (Reserva LPF), AH -0.25;
- Some predefined limited-risk trades regarding Aleksandar Vukić, triggered after 1:6 vs Fernando Verdasco (ATP Sofia);
- Huge tradin' when it comes to the Caribbean Semi-final: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs Jamaica Tallawahs, just a beautiful top-notch cricket edition!
- And so on, dozens of others closely watched but not triggered... not to mention the time for post-analysis when something failed...

I would greatly appreciate it if anyone could share her/his advice on mastering these time-related and event-related filters. My approach is based on the expected return on investment, some level of expertise, risk control, and time management. But there is so much to learn… Socrates is right, that we know nothing...