Arbusers

For months I was thinking how to use a war in Ukraine to profit from gambling. So I thought that if Russia invades a world sympathy would raise for Ukraine.
I was placing small bets for Ukraine to win the 2022 Eurovision song contest since mid January to any outlet would accept them. As tension was escalating my bets were becoming bigger. Then then night Russia invaded I placed a much larger bet for Ukraine to win.
I have no concrete strategy for these bets. I may let the bets run, or I will sell them at a later stage when people will be flocking (they already do).

I know this could be deemed as black war mongering, it isn't.

An ingenious idea indeed, but that is not taking down the label of a warmonger.

Congratulations on this brilliant idea, but allow me to ask, what are you looking to achieve by posting this NOW?
My first guess is that you are looking for followers who will simply follow your idea and will press the odds for Ukraine even lower, so you could simply lay your bets and maximise your profits.

At what odds did Ukraine open?

Sandica9 wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:32 am

At what odds did Ukraine open?

I bought the bet at 29 for the fish time. My average odds are 21, but I also got a bet at 40.

To my mind it's an easy auto lay either here or at 2.00 or 5.00. Anyways very well played, Sir!

blackjack wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 5:32 pm

I bought the bet at 29 for the fish time. My average odds are 21, but I also got a bet at 40.

And what is the total stake?

balls of steele wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 11, 2022 5:34 am

blackjack wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 5:32 pm

I bought the bet at 29 for the fish time. My average odds are 21, but I also got a bet at 40.

And what is the total stake?

The amount is rather big and I better not say. I still don't know if I will let the bets run or cover them somewhere along the way. Hopefully, none of you gents will go against me.

Better not say, cause you never know who/when/how goes against you in a lay bet.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:38 am

Better not say, cause you never know who/when/how goes against you in a lay bet.

How could someone go against him? Please explain.

x-casino wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:31 am

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:38 am

Better not say, cause you never know who/when/how goes against you in a lay bet.

How could someone go against him? Please explain.

If you know that a large lay bet is on the way, you could lay first, before him and then back the bet at a higher odd. Like this, you are taking advantage of his action, scrapping a small profit.
Blackjack should not say if she is about to lay the bet or let it run. Actually, it was a mistake in the first place to announce it. She should be speaking after the event and not before.

I always admire the logic ''If A, then B'' and the way it can be used in smart betting. In this case I wasn't able to correlate the war in Ukraine with Eurovision. But I ve been very much precise in correlating other legacy bets with real life indexes. For example, the US elections with the USD/EUR price, or the Brexit referendum with the GBP/EUR price. Not to mention the Greek elections and the Greek referendum of SYRIZA which all have been major betting events for me.
Well done to BlackJack and thank you for sharing this way of thinking that should be deemed as motivation from others.

Very well said by all of you guys. Thank you for this thread.
I am always on the look for markets like this to combine 2 irrelevant events. This is not the easiest task in the world as a wild imagination is needed. One of the handicaps is that bookmakers are offering a small number of novelty bets. Just have a look today in Betfair and tell me what you see! You can't combine Oscars with anything else.
We were also looking for ways to profit from a potential and unwanted war in Ukraine. So we anticipated very well that sanctions will be imposed in Russia. Out of all potential sanctions we knew that Russian Vodka would be restricted. So we looked for alternatives and we started examining ABSOLUT Vodka. People believe this is a Vodka from Sweden, but in reality it belongs to a French company. Boom, we thought we found the golden egg, but we also though this French company is not depending only on Absolut. In the end we decided not to buy their shares. And we did the correct think, because the French company lost value after the breakout of war.
All I m saying, things are nit that easy as they seem to be.

I covered my initial exposure to Ukraine at 1.75 odds so whatever happens I lose no money. Now I will see how to handle the profits.

All bets covered. The biggest arb I have ever had in my 19 years long career. I could retire for the rest of the year but I will not.