Arbusers

I looked everywhere for this, tried to do it myself in Google sheets, but have yet to find the solution. I want to create a formula to gives me the best outcomes from a risk free bet in 2 stages, whatever the result. I know it might sound not to difficulf, bu coming as a total newbie in sport booking and my last math courses being more than 20 years ago, I'm having a bit of a struggle on this one

The example above is taken form a reddit post so I already know the results. It's for a Free bet given in case of a losses, and is without stake returned (only winnings are returned).

The variables to be entered manually are highlighted in blue.
The value which have to be computed by the formula are in red.

Step 1: Hedge a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

$1,000 bet with Booker A on the Team A1 at 3.8 (Risk Free Bet)
$2,305 bet with Booker B on the Team B1 at 1.34 (Hedge Bet)

If the Team A1 win…
You profit $2,800 on Booker A
You lose $2,305 on Booker B
Net profit of $495. You’re done. No need to complete step two.

If the Team B1 win…
You profit $795 on Booker B.
You lose $1,000 on Booker A, but you still have a $1,000 Free Bet on Booker A from losing the Risk Free Bet.
Right now you are down $205.

Step 2: Convert your $1,000 Free Bet

$1,000 with Booker A on the Team B1 money line at 3.4 (Free Bet)
$1,704 with Booker B on the Team B2 money line at 1.41 (Hedge Bet)

The Team B1 and the Team B2 play each other; therefore, one of those two bets will win.

If the Team B1 win…
You profit $2,400 on Booker A
You lose $1,704 on Booker B
Step 2 Profit is $696
Step 1 Loss is $205
Final Profit is $491

If the Team B2 win…
You lose $0 on Booker A
You profit $696 on Booker B
Step 2 Profit is $696
Step 1 Loss is $205
Final Profit is $491

Have a look at our stake not returned calculator: portal/stake-not-returned-calculator/

Hi Fred

It is a very well-defined challenge and hopefully I have not misunderstood your question. I suppose that the best stakes in your view are those that will give you equal profits in all 3 cases:
Booker A wins in step 1
Booker A wins in step 2
Booker B wins in step 2

See the attached photo for a way to construct this. The forum does not allow attached excel files, but I suppose you can easily construct this using the formulas written in the comments right to the calculation cells.

Important: the formula for calculating the Bookmaker B stake size will be an iterative calculation as the loss will continuously change. Therefore you will need to allow excel to use iterative calculation or you will get a circular reference error. You can enable this by enabling the iterative calculation check box under File > Options > Formulas.

So the only inputs you'll need are the odds and the size of the free bet, rest is calculated. Hope that this was the intention.

Regards

Exactly what I was looking for! Works perfectly If someone is interested I'm open to share the Google Sheets I have!

Can you explain the how you conceived it? The thinking of it.. I mean.. Sorry for my poor english there!

In fact, I think I get most of it, except this part :

=(B7-1)*C7-(B15-1)*C15+C16-B11

Fred b wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 18, 2023 1:47 am

Exactly what I was looking for! Works perfectly If someone is interested I'm open to share the Google Sheets I have!

Can you explain the how you conceived it? The thinking of it.. I mean.. Sorry for my poor english there!

In fact, I think I get most of it, except this part :

=(B7-1)*C7-(B15-1)*C15+C16-B11

I did not think of this expression and it is not so easy to understand why it is as it is. It was derived using algebra from the initial statement that the profits of all 3 outcomes have to equal eachother.

Outcome 1 = Outcome 2 = Outcome 3

Outcome 1: (Odds_A1-1)*free_bet - stake_B1
Outcome 2: (Odds_A2-1)*free_bet - stake_B2 + loss
Outcome 3: (Odds_B2-1)*stake_B2 + loss

From the above, stake_B1 can be derived.

In the expression of stake_B1 loss (B11) is included and the expression of loss depends on stake_B1, so that is where the circular reference problem arises. Luckily excel can iterate and find the values of stake_B1 and loss that the equations convert towards.

Wonderfull!!

main idea is that risk free bet shoud have as high odd as possible...