Some examples (calculation tasks in some projects that started a few months ago):

- Likelihood of Bayer'04 to win competitions X, Y, and Z under Xabier Alonso, considering Bayer'04 never won X before 2024 despite Christoph Daum's amazing work (why?), won Y under Dragoslav Stepanović (why?) and won Z under Erich Ribbeck (why?);

Also runner-up in all X, Y, and Z tournaments in 2002 (analysis of the big failure in all of those finals within a few days);

- Likelihood of the SA Spurs winning X times in the next Y games to avoid a repeat of their 1997 NBA debacle (why?);

Also acceptable calculation of probability in Spread markets;

Probability of catch odds > N vs. very big NBA sharks (Kelly Criterion immediately kicks in) in MoneyLine markets, etc.;

- And so forth.

Some experimental tasks are in progress, for example:

- Analysis of an atypical "black box" in Spartak vs CSKA clash, Bulgarian NBL, starting on April 19th. The last three consecutive matches between these teams gave exactly a 4-point difference at the end.

In case you're wondering about these teams, the top teams in NBL basketball have some similarities to the Greek A2 Elite League, their second-tier level actually. The CSKA team returned to the NBL a few years ago and so far its statistics and data are insufficient, but Spartak has good ones. A long time ago, Spartak, full of domestic players only (under the name Plama due to sponsorship reasons) defeated Real Madrid (full of stars such as Pablo Laso and Dejan Bodiroga on the pitch, led by Željko Obradović) at home, 93:84 for the EuroCup, group C.

- Some interesting cases as above (point spread probabilities, etc.) but in the Philippine Cup. The tournament is in progress now, backed by excellent stats and data! Basketball in this country is very good and enjoyable to watch and I think the Philippine teams should be invited to at least the EuroLeague/NBA pre-season tournaments/friendlies.

- Naturally, one of the most interesting tasks is to calculate some probability of the final result for the winner of Hellenic Basketball in their top-notch GBL A1 for the season 2023/24.

For some reason, I'm digging into the "black box" below. Some custom PAO & OLY Exponentials are crossed into the central zone of the rectangle with coordinates (2020;3) (2020;4) (2021;3) (2021;4). A properly assigned weight to some elements of the long-term chart plus some formulas would give some signals, helping to "predict" the 2023/2024 winner.

I'm trying to build the hypothetical change of some custom graphics, provided that Olympiakos had not opted out of the GBL A1 in the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 seasons. Here I mean, that both PAO & OLY are most likely to be seen on the graphics on rows 3,4, or 4,3 (i.e. 1st and second or vice versa) at the end of those competitions. But the probability of this is not 100% at all, see 2004, 2005 and 2019.

Retrospectively, the crossing of the Red Exponential & Mean, and also the near zone of the crossing of the Green Exponential and Mean pinpointed the 2nd OLY title under Dušan Ivković in GBL A1(after 1997 one), Ivković's dominance over Željko Obradović in the short run and also the Obradović's departure after the 2011/12 race. And other custom graphics examples, of course.

Naturally, a much greater weighting of statistics and data for the current season is crucial for building some probabilities of Winner/Runner Up, but a little help from well-chosen middle-term and long-term graphics often makes some hidden things clear.

Let's now enjoy the second half of Hellenic Basket Superclásico PAO vs Olympiakos.

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Mon Apr 15, 2024 6:21 pm

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Your Points are Correct . Usually i check this around the end of the 3rd Q+Hard to say.Live Basketball Match.

In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

The market: "number of points" follows a normal distribution.

You can calculate how much % drop the odds with each new added point, and make an estimation. But it will not be too precise. The problem here is that you don't have other lines of points, so hard to say....

The value will depend on the number of points, it's not the same the difference between 167 and 174 than between 267 and 274.

And the value will depend as well on the time. It's not the same a difference of 7 points in the 1st quarter than in the 4th.

But what I'm really wondering is how we can figure out the odds in the Sharp Bookie for the same game, just with a different line. Like, is there a simple math trick we can use? For example, before a game starts, a 7-point difference might mean odds of around 1.28. But that's for a different game. I'm just trying to figure out how to apply that to this specific situation.

Maybe i can create a table of odds and lines . Not sure...

The match is not important. The two keys are: Time to the end, and number of points. We can consider that some teams, or leagues have a normal distribution smaller or longer, but in general, it shouldn't change a lot.

Statistics: Posted by CharlieSheen99 — Mon Apr 15, 2024 5:30 pm

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Hard to say.Live Basketball Match.

In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

The market: "number of points" follows a normal distribution.

You can calculate how much % drop the odds with each new added point, and make an estimation. But it will not be too precise. The problem here is that you don't have other lines of points, so hard to say....

The value will depend on the number of points, it's not the same the difference between 167 and 174 than between 267 and 274.

And the value will depend as well on the time. It's not the same a difference of 7 points in the 1st quarter than in the 4th.

But what I'm really wondering is how we can figure out the odds in the Sharp Bookie for the same game, just with a different line. Like, is there a simple math trick we can use? For example, before a game starts, a 7-point difference might mean odds of around 1.28. But that's for a different game. I'm just trying to figure out how to apply that to this specific situation.

Maybe i can create a table of odds and lines . Not sure...

Statistics: Posted by Abuser — Mon Apr 15, 2024 4:21 pm

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Live Basketball Match.

In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

Hard to say.In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

The market: "number of points" follows a normal distribution.

You can calculate how much % drop the odds with each new added point, and make an estimation. But it will not be too precise. The problem here is that you don't have other lines of points, so hard to say....

The value will depend on the number of points, it's not the same the difference between 167 and 174 than between 267 and 274.

And the value will depend as well on the time. It's not the same a difference of 7 points in the 1st quarter than in the 4th.

Statistics: Posted by CharlieSheen99 — Mon Apr 15, 2024 3:53 pm

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In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

Statistics: Posted by Abuser — Mon Apr 15, 2024 3:04 pm

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Here I'm reminded of "Walk Of Life" by Dire Straits.

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:03 pm

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That's why the agencies moved offered odds for MI from circa 1.9 to circa 2.3 at the end of the first part.

I remember the Wankhede roar in the 2011 World Cup final when Dhoni scored 91 vs Lasith Malinga's Sri Lanka, and India became the World Champion...

Despite today's bowling tactics by CSK are not 100 percent clear so far, it is preferable to leave cold trading and attack some value positions based on what is seen so far.

What a game!

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:27 pm

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New market attacks under fire.

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:37 pm

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Due to the lack of time to build proper reliable modeling for this fight (according to the Kelly Criterion), the final solution is to limit market attacks before the match and goin' into mostly pseudo-cold trading mode when the match starts plus limited live value positions when the risk components are acceptable.

Some stages of my focus today:

- Mark Boucher and Hardik Pandya's decision on when exactly Jasprit Bumrah will bowl;

- Stephen Fleming today's decision on the Super Kings' slightly unstable bowling dept and relevant bowling tactics involved today, I'm particularly curious about the Kings' bowling approach, especially against Rohit Sharma;

- I suspect that if Ajinkya Rahane is not removed before he reaches 40 runs scored today, Fleming's additional tactical order will be in place.

I remembered exactly what happened at Wankhede on April 8 2023 during IPL'23.

- I expect some risky changes in MI's Fielding dept roles in order to restrict the Super Kings batsmen at some stage, but will CSK be able to score more runs in these instances? This depends on CSK's current partnership and that is a perfect time for appearing hypothetical value;

-And so forth.

Let's see what happens in that El Superclásico.

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:08 pm

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