Your Points are Correct . Usually i check this around the end of the 3rd Q+Hard to say.Live Basketball Match.

In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

The market: "number of points" follows a normal distribution.

You can calculate how much % drop the odds with each new added point, and make an estimation. But it will not be too precise. The problem here is that you don't have other lines of points, so hard to say....

The value will depend on the number of points, it's not the same the difference between 167 and 174 than between 267 and 274.

And the value will depend as well on the time. It's not the same a difference of 7 points in the 1st quarter than in the 4th.

But what I'm really wondering is how we can figure out the odds in the Sharp Bookie for the same game, just with a different line. Like, is there a simple math trick we can use? For example, before a game starts, a 7-point difference might mean odds of around 1.28. But that's for a different game. I'm just trying to figure out how to apply that to this specific situation.

Maybe i can create a table of odds and lines . Not sure...

The match is not important. The two keys are: Time to the end, and number of points. We can consider that some teams, or leagues have a normal distribution smaller or longer, but in general, it shouldn't change a lot.

Statistics: Posted by CharlieSheen99 — Mon Apr 15, 2024 5:30 pm

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Hard to say.Live Basketball Match.

In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

The market: "number of points" follows a normal distribution.

You can calculate how much % drop the odds with each new added point, and make an estimation. But it will not be too precise. The problem here is that you don't have other lines of points, so hard to say....

The value will depend on the number of points, it's not the same the difference between 167 and 174 than between 267 and 274.

And the value will depend as well on the time. It's not the same a difference of 7 points in the 1st quarter than in the 4th.

But what I'm really wondering is how we can figure out the odds in the Sharp Bookie for the same game, just with a different line. Like, is there a simple math trick we can use? For example, before a game starts, a 7-point difference might mean odds of around 1.28. But that's for a different game. I'm just trying to figure out how to apply that to this specific situation.

Maybe i can create a table of odds and lines . Not sure...

Statistics: Posted by Abuser — Mon Apr 15, 2024 4:21 pm

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Live Basketball Match.

In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

Hard to say.In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

The market: "number of points" follows a normal distribution.

You can calculate how much % drop the odds with each new added point, and make an estimation. But it will not be too precise. The problem here is that you don't have other lines of points, so hard to say....

The value will depend on the number of points, it's not the same the difference between 167 and 174 than between 267 and 274.

And the value will depend as well on the time. It's not the same a difference of 7 points in the 1st quarter than in the 4th.

Statistics: Posted by CharlieSheen99 — Mon Apr 15, 2024 3:53 pm

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In Sharp Book, the odds for over 167.5 is 2.0, and the odds for under 167.5 is 1.71.

In BookMaker X, the odds for over 174.5 is 1.87, and the odds for under 174.5 is 1.80.

There Is Clearly a value on Under 174.5 in BookMaker X.

But How much is this value?

We want to find the odds for under 174.5 in Sharp. (No Alternative Lines)

What Can i do to find the Odds For Under 174.5 in Sharp book?

Statistics: Posted by Abuser — Mon Apr 15, 2024 3:04 pm

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Here I'm reminded of "Walk Of Life" by Dire Straits.

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:03 pm

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That's why the agencies moved offered odds for MI from circa 1.9 to circa 2.3 at the end of the first part.

I remember the Wankhede roar in the 2011 World Cup final when Dhoni scored 91 vs Lasith Malinga's Sri Lanka, and India became the World Champion...

Despite today's bowling tactics by CSK are not 100 percent clear so far, it is preferable to leave cold trading and attack some value positions based on what is seen so far.

What a game!

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:27 pm

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New market attacks under fire.

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:37 pm

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Due to the lack of time to build proper reliable modeling for this fight (according to the Kelly Criterion), the final solution is to limit market attacks before the match and goin' into mostly pseudo-cold trading mode when the match starts plus limited live value positions when the risk components are acceptable.

Some stages of my focus today:

- Mark Boucher and Hardik Pandya's decision on when exactly Jasprit Bumrah will bowl;

- Stephen Fleming today's decision on the Super Kings' slightly unstable bowling dept and relevant bowling tactics involved today, I'm particularly curious about the Kings' bowling approach, especially against Rohit Sharma;

- I suspect that if Ajinkya Rahane is not removed before he reaches 40 runs scored today, Fleming's additional tactical order will be in place.

I remembered exactly what happened at Wankhede on April 8 2023 during IPL'23.

- I expect some risky changes in MI's Fielding dept roles in order to restrict the Super Kings batsmen at some stage, but will CSK be able to score more runs in these instances? This depends on CSK's current partnership and that is a perfect time for appearing hypothetical value;

-And so forth.

Let's see what happens in that El Superclásico.

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:08 pm

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For some reason, I focus on the middle overs in KKR batting and not the Powerplay. In my opinion, some hypothetical hidden value could emerge much earlier than the Death Overs stage today, and I'm not targeting the ML core market at all here.

Some additional secondary market entries/closes should be in the Death stage of KKR batting, provided that Andre Russell is about to cover the pre-estimated batting strike range today.

Statistics: Posted by arb12 — Sun Apr 14, 2024 12:29 pm

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