Arbusers

Is anyone keen on that masterpiece? Let's discuss this one here.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 27, 2022 7:30 pm

Is anyone keen on that masterpiece? Let's discuss this one here.

Ohh, I had to google it to see what IPL 2022 stands for. To save you the time it is Indian Premier League 2022. But what is so special about it?

crowned wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:20 am

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 27, 2022 7:30 pm

Is anyone keen on that masterpiece? Let's discuss this one here.

Ohh, I had to google it to see what IPL 2022 stands for. To save you the time it is Indian Premier League 2022. But what is so special about it?

The volumes matched on Betfair are mind-boggling.

$50M+ for a 3 hour game.

It's one of the biggest leagues of cricket. Similar to the champions league of football.

Which bookmaker has the sharpest odds for IPL 2022?

Betfair if can't access it then go for orbit.

AUAvi wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:41 am

The volumes matched on Betfair are mind-boggling.

$50M+ for a 3 hour game.

That's right. In the early IPL years, I spotted volumes circa 18-20 million and tend to increase every year, nowadays up to about 100 million on a single T20 IPL derby match, provided that the event is still undecided at the 15th over of the chasing or something similar. After Betfair's left the Indian market, the increase is slowed actually. In that country, almost every person is interested in that kind of sport.

shashwat wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:53 pm

It's one of the biggest leagues of cricket. Similar to the champions league of football.

As far as I know, only the American Major Leagues are more expensive than the IPL competition (in terms of TV rights), but when it comes to the in-play volumes, the IPL cricket is unbeaten nowadays.

Far before the start of the 2022 IPL competition, was clear, that things are going to be different, due to:

The IPL draft and later the Mega action were about recruiting the players;
Increasing the participants by two newcomers;
The new teams destroyed some teams' major staff or at least their stability during the selection process (Rashid Khan, Hardik and Krunal Pandya, Evin Lewis, Jason Holder, Quinton de Kock, KL Rahul, Marcus Stoinis, and many more. CVC Capital Partners and RPSG's money did the magic);
The enigmatic team of Royal Challengers Bangalore and the eternal guess regardin' their IPL title;
The oldest players' team and the top-notch team of Chennai Super Kings, all the teams are against them. Is the IPL title doable again despite the high age of the players;
The Mumbai Indians' strategy lately without Pandya bros and end of Malinga's era, are Sharma as a classy batsman and Bumrah as a top-notch bowler capable to upgrade the team?
And many more for all the teams.

Royal Challengers Bangalore team is a usual underperformer despite Diageo's subsidiary money. They are still waiting for the IPL title.
Very often, usually in the initial rounds, the published odds are out of order and the players may spot that and open the entry points.
For instance, Royal Challengers Bangalore team in the past, under Daniel Vettori's management, was heavily overestimated by the agencies at least several rounds more than the usual starting set-up.

A kind of analogy in terms of soccer, remember Gabriel Batistuta's Fiorentina under Giovanni Trapattoni's management, and their attempts for the title. Do you remember the odds most of the time and the wrong assessment of the oddsmakers?

The same more or less inadequate odds are spotted many times with Royal Challengers Bangalore during the years. Huge swing for them in the performance - 3 times runner-up and several times weren't qualified for the Play-Offs at all despite selected most notable battling department (not so much attention to the bowling department).

Another interesting period contains some mispriced odds spotted in the IPL 2020 regardin' the oldest and historically the best team Chennai Super Kings (4 titles and 5 times runners-up off 12 seasons participated and missed 2 seasons).
Despite the last successful seasons, the player must reassess the age of the selected Chennai Super Kings players and the influence on the physical condition prior to everyone given match. That helps a lot in odds analysis and therefore helps seek a value in the odds. Chennai Super Kings weren't qualified for the 2020 IPL Play-Offs, opposite of the implied by the odds probabilities.
And vice versa, IPL 2021 was won by Chennai's Old Army again

The most successful IPL teams so far are Chennai Super Kings, the defending Champions and 4 titles so far, and Mumbai Indians, 5 titles so far.

A historical moment arises here in IPL 2022. After the fourth round, Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians somehow are at the bottom as ultimate and penultimate in the point table. Not to mention the unbelievable for both the teams' Net Run Rate, minus 1.211 and minus 1.181 respectively, after only four matches played!
Zero points for them. All other teams have won some points.
They are only six points behind the Play-Offs, but the pitch decisions weren't classy so far.

The most probability scenarios for both the teams from now on, have to be estimated properly and later be assigned computed probability for every given scenario.

When it comes to Mumbai Indians, some years ago they made 5 defeats at the start of the season, next year they made 4 initial lost matches in the start. Both the cases somehow reached the Play-Off stage.

Another trap exists when estimating the probabilities for both CSK and MI teams to reach the next stage. Beware of the new rule in IPL - the virtual groups of teams A and B. Due to the new rule, ten participants will play only 14 rounds, not the full 18. Therefore CSK and MI need almost the full of their sporting potential in the next only 10 rounds to reach the Play-Offs.

Chennai Super Kings vs Royal Challengers Bangalore at the moment. The first good entry point interval for some positions was between 7th and 12th over. Chennai Super Kings' odds slowly were downgraded from 3 to about 2. Somewhere at the 12.2 over of the match, after the Yellow team's guns start to produce several sixes and several fours, now in the Death stage of CSK's batting, the Yellow team is priced at odds circa 1,6. Only two batsmen are dismissed at that stage. I calculated some probabilities for CSK to finish circa 180 runs and therefore several entry points and potential hedging are in progress.

CSK's 216/4 is a very competitive total at the break time, but for the later opening/closing positions further in that match, I have in mind the following:

RCB team at that ground achieved 205/2 vs Punjab Kings recently;
RCB as a batsman department oriented team, have to score at least 217 runs, which is not impossible for their historical strength;
CSK team is somehow missing a strong wicket-taker at the moment;
If CSK can't win that match, they are probably goin' to miss the Play-Offs stage later;
Virat Kohli's performance;
The Powerplay stage's Run Rate is not so deciding, provided that not many batsmen dismissals happened. The same as the Chennai team showed earlier that match. Below 6 RR and one batsman removed till 7th over, over 10 RR at the end.

Last several overs RCB almost achieved the required run rate. Four batsmen are at their disposal till the end. But Kohli and Faf du Plessis aren't there. At the fifth dismissal minutes ago, the odds for RCB moved from circa 12 till circa 30, and after Karthik's six reverse to near 20. De Silva's six and odds are circa 13-15, his dismissal and RCB are near the end. Hedging operations at their best.
Dwayne Bravo is the key, he is out of form at the moment, if he is playing more, and if his econ rate worse much more during the Death overs, RCB may attack to survive.

The legendary Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings at the moment. After the toss, MI chose to bowl first. Usually, after that condition, the odds were changed in MI's favor. Between the toss and Kick-Off time, the first hundreds of thousands of money have entered the market.
MI after four consecutive losses are at the bottom, but remember 2015 in the same situation they won the IPL. Now the teams aren't 8 but 10, therefore the win is a must.
After calculating the probabilities of every scenario by the model, some entry points before Kick-Off and future ones during In-play are loaded. Tymal Mills' performance will be considered for some decisions by my model, Ashwin, and others too. Bumrah at the bowling is among the crucial players for the entry/exit points for me.
Good start for the PBKS in the Powerplay (above 10 run rate) and odds heavily moved.

Superb PBKS's Powerplay and later performance and keeping circa 10 Run Rate. Only Unadkat later has a good econ rate, between 6 and 7. That's why MI's odds drifted from circa 1.7 (after the toss) to circa 2.7. Due to poor bowling performance from MI and superb battling one from PBKS, when the first PBKS's batsman dismissal happened at 9.3 Over, the odds at that stage at that Run Rate logically moved down to circa 2.4 or something. If Bumrah, Mills, and Unadkat do not make several dismissals and a much better econ rate, the players may prepare to attack some drifted odds and to make some additional entry/exit operations. Middle Overs are in progress.