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For the love of the game. Cricket actually

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arb12
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Aug 11, 2024 8:35 pm

arb12 wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2024 4:39 pm
Canada's 2024 Global T20,
Montreal Tigers vs. Toronto Nationals Grand Final, hopefully, the game will start as soon as the rain stops.

(1) My last attempts at fine-tuning the 2024 Canadian T20 custom Model weren't too easy due to six eliminated games with "NoResult" or "Abandoned" status.
As a workaround, I decided for today's Model tune-ups to introduce protective margins for quite a few variables. However, due to a lack of time, the range of approximations is mostly based on my observations of the current players and also what I have spotted in the Ontario pitch so far;
(2) Nevertheless, a defined number of variables are handled and calculated in the usual way, based on the common sense of what is seen in contemporary Cricket at similar tiers of the game;
(3) The implied probabilities of the published odds in some of the markets for Tigers vs. Nationals are weird compared to what I've calculated for myself, but I am quite aware of what I am telling you in (1), therefore, choosing an additional grid of well-chosen stop losses would reduce the risk;
(4) I've spotted a lot of things about Andries Gous' behavior on the pitch and decided to move him into a slightly expanded Matrix to try to more accurately calculate Gous's probabilities today;
(5) I think Tim Seifert's sub-optimal spot in the batting order would blow the team against a sudden strong delivery from a fast Bowler (prob >20% today vs the opponent);
(6)A very strong Trigger (prob > 66.7% today) insists that Colin Munro's fairly straightforward updated batting style will produce a clear result in terms of Strike Rate interval of {X-Y, X+Y} against any of the Top Three opposition Bowlers;
(7) Jason Behrendorff's consistency in his supreme Bowling style is among the deciding factors for the outcome, but I wonder what the likelihood of a worsening Economy Rate and an increase in the number of Wckts taken is;
(8) Based on my recent observations, the exact moments of the game that Siddique will turn up to bowl as well as the exact Batsmen he will be competing against are reasonable grounds to try and truncate the appropriate Probability Matrices;
(9) A very quick assessment has to be made of Romario Shepherd's exact form today in his first interactions on the pitch. Why? It has a few unclear personal metrics and that's absurd in its latest sporting state;
(10) The impact of the wet ground;
(11) The ability to use the D/L method when losing overs due to the rain;
(12) And so on.

I'd love to read other Modelers' perspectives. That game is extremely vast in terms of possible states, and that is part of its beauty and unpredictability.



So far, after the first PowerPlay has ended and the Middle Overs have started, some things have gone as expected from the most likely scenarios modeled before the match:
- Tim Seifert is Out, removed by Behrendorff;
- Junaid Siddique came on when the Tigers were in a knockdown-like state (4 Wckts lost within 5 Overs) and he took the fifth Wckt at the very beginning;
- The most expected excellent bowling performance for the Nationals;
- And so forth.

So weird odds posted before the game, the Nationals were rated as underdogs by the odds compilers, giving us good positions to buy at levels above 2 and later to sell large percentages of the positions as close as the Nationals' price was trending to fall below 1.2 and more at the eve of the first Death Overs stage today.
My guess is that the odds compilers were mostly misled by the recent Nationals and Tigers matchups. On the other hand, no one of the protective grid positions I mentioned in the previous posting was in effect today. That overcame my expectations.
Not to mention some of the secondary markets that differ from MoneyLine. My assumptions for some initial mispricing offered by odds compilers were confirmed by those five Bowlers taking 7 Wckts before the Dead Overs and six Bowlers taking 9 Wckts in total before the break time. All the market positions are closed.

Despite my Model showing me a probability of a worsening Behrendorff's Economy Rate today, that didn't happen at all.

Additionally, no matter that the Model awaited the excellent Bowling Dept for Nationals today, I failed to "forecast" that absolutely all the members of the Nationals' Bowling Dept took Wckts today in the Grand Final vs the Tigers.

Despite generating very low probabilities for Colin Munro's last performing style vs that kind of opposite Bowling structure as Nationals, I was amazed at his time-to-live on the pitch, which lasted only two bowling deliveries...


Let's see what happens later in the rest of the Nationals' batting portion of the game.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Sep 15, 2024 2:45 pm

Although the start of the T20 Aussies @ England clash is still to come due to bad weather in Manchester, let's discuss the ODI Wolves Champions vs Stallions Champions in Faisalabad.

What is the reason that match caught my attention? The presence of players such as Masood, Azam, Mumtaz, Rauf, Zaman, Rizwan, Ahmed etc.

Although Fakhar Zaman played cautiously, waiting for a strong attack, he was dismissed much earlier than expected. Rizwan was fine but Mumtaz was smarter today. Iftikhar was perfect but again faced strong bowling deliveries from Mumtaz. The logical movement of the market odds was influenced by all of the above. I was pleased by the strong Stallions' bowling attack - 4 Wckts taken (Khan) & 3 Wckts (Mumtaz).
But I personally didn't expect Wolves Champions' achievement of 231/All Out after 45 Overs.

By the way, I'm wondering if Mehran Mumtaz is somehow related to another Cricket player Urooj Mumtaz (PAK Ladies in the past).

The second part of the game is now underway and I have tweaked some fine-tuning based on an odd decision about Babar Azam to be put #3 in the batting order.

By the way, the market is not hard at all.

Your opinions?
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Sep 15, 2024 3:37 pm

Well, both Tahir and Babar Azam were dismissed within three Bowling deliveries, and plenty of Dot balls afterward and I think some significant market opportunities for a heavy attack arose at a lower risk for your positions than on similar spotted occasions. However, some stop-loss points also need to be moved according to the right calculated probability of fault.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Sep 15, 2024 4:03 pm

Addendum: The favorites after the first part of the game (according to the odds compilers, followed by agencies and the Exchanges' offers as well) show us exactly how, in a match involving Pakistan or their domestic match, the historically proven raised probability of a batting collapse should be factored into the modeling on your part.
Thousands of graphics have confirmed that probability and the frequency of appearing for decades.

From live-market Favorites, they became 105/All Out in no time!

What a game!
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Mon Sep 30, 2024 8:26 am

The 2nd Test India vs Bangladesh in Kanpur, day Fourth in progress now,

After the weak 1st day and consecutive 2nd and third rainy days, some markets aired temporary valuable peaks at last!
Minutes ago Jasprit Bumrah conceded two consecutive Fours vs Miraz and the market prices tended to reach the aggregate region of circa 1.11 - 1.14 for The Draw, the ideal moment for a series of limited Lay The Draw positions due to what is expected by Bumrah. Why limited positions? Due to Kelly Criterion's triggers, bearing in mind we're in a day Fourth, Session 2 and Bangladesh were leading at that moment by 224 R with 6 Wckts lost.
I didn't expect two too quick Wckts taken from Bumrah and one by Siraj (3 Wckts within the next 18 deliveries happened actually), I thought we had a likely interval of at least ten Overs to spot that. That's why the profit was emergency locked via consecutive Back The Draw positions in the region of 1.24 - 1.28 and no open positions on The Draw market after Siraj's Wckt at 72.2 Ov.

After the Storm of Indian batting attacks minutes ago (Jaiswal triple Fours, Rohit Sharma double sixes), my live Model triggered new open positions in a different market due to prices for India falling from 8 to 3 within the desired observed interval (X, Y) today, combined with the current R.R. > 15 at the moment of the (X, Y) forecasts applied and the value of some additional variables I'm interested in.
Here I'll probably hold the positions according to Kelly and don't plan close-outs.

By the way, the graphical curve for India to win almost touched the level of 2 now and bounced slightly back after Rohit Sharma's dismissal...


Anyone live modeling that game?
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Mon Sep 30, 2024 9:19 am

Due to:
(1) India's apparent switching in the heavy T20I batting mode, trying to accommodate to avoid the draw at home vs Bangladesh;
(2) Having in mind also the circa 40 remaining Overs today and hopefully three full Sessions tomorrow;
(3) Qiick reassesses of India's line-up and their batting order;
(4) Plenty of gathered Stats India/Bangladesh, also the preparation of Kanpur pitch,
it is not hard to calculate the real probabilities for The Draw vs India's Win (currently implied by the market close to 60%:40% respectively).

However, it is much harder for the Model to build forecasts until the 2nd Test ends for factors such as:
- The Weather in Kanpur/pitch conditions;
- As much closer predicted interval as possible in terms of stability of the batting Run Rate's behavior for the India team today and tomorrow;
- Plenty of others, of course.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Mon Sep 30, 2024 11:20 am

A couple of minutes ago India leveled the Runs scored in 1st Innings and started to accumulate leading from now on.
According to the market, the probabilities (implied by the odds) for Draw:IndiaWin at the moment of leveling the achieved Runs are 42%:58%, (slightly changed to 44:56 due to the break of the Virat Kohl - KL Rahul partnership, and additionally changed too slightly when Jadeja, Ashwin, Rahul were out, removed by the brilliant Bangladeshi Bowling Dept under the management of Shakib al Hasan (Ex-KKR, SRH)), but I do not agree with the exact percentage tight interval (even more closer to 48%:52% after the IND declaration) before the start of the second innings due to:
- The probability of exhausting the Y number of Wckts in BD's hands in the remaining circa 20 Overs in Session 3 today is corrected. My rationale - reassessed some bowling probabilities about the India Bowling Dept under the management of Bumrah in the next Overs in order to avoid a possible BD's NightWatchman-style in the next remaining Overs today;
- Fast re-build the expected probability of exact batting BD's batting behavior till the end of the day, striving for a Draw at the end of the fifth day.

That's why I see some valuable positions here.

Let's see what happens!

Your opinions?
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Mon Sep 30, 2024 12:06 pm

Apparently, both main graphics curves, describing the initial of the second Innings had included some primary-noise-caused moves till the moment of Ashwin's bowling delivery toward Mahmud in the 9.4 Over.
The forecast of the breaking of the current support/resistance levels would be risky if the secondary-noise originator is not recognized precisely, but that is not too easy before the initial moves of Day 5th.

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