arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2024 4:39 pmCanada's 2024 Global T20,
Montreal Tigers vs. Toronto Nationals Grand Final, hopefully, the game will start as soon as the rain stops.
(1) My last attempts at fine-tuning the 2024 Canadian T20 custom Model weren't too easy due to six eliminated games with "NoResult" or "Abandoned" status.
As a workaround, I decided for today's Model tune-ups to introduce protective margins for quite a few variables. However, due to a lack of time, the range of approximations is mostly based on my observations of the current players and also what I have spotted in the Ontario pitch so far;
(2) Nevertheless, a defined number of variables are handled and calculated in the usual way, based on the common sense of what is seen in contemporary Cricket at similar tiers of the game;
(3) The implied probabilities of the published odds in some of the markets for Tigers vs. Nationals are weird compared to what I've calculated for myself, but I am quite aware of what I am telling you in (1), therefore, choosing an additional grid of well-chosen stop losses would reduce the risk;
(4) I've spotted a lot of things about Andries Gous' behavior on the pitch and decided to move him into a slightly expanded Matrix to try to more accurately calculate Gous's probabilities today;
(5) I think Tim Seifert's sub-optimal spot in the batting order would blow the team against a sudden strong delivery from a fast Bowler (prob >20% today vs the opponent);
(6)A very strong Trigger (prob > 66.7% today) insists that Colin Munro's fairly straightforward updated batting style will produce a clear result in terms of Strike Rate interval of {X-Y, X+Y} against any of the Top Three opposition Bowlers;
(7) Jason Behrendorff's consistency in his supreme Bowling style is among the deciding factors for the outcome, but I wonder what the likelihood of a worsening Economy Rate and an increase in the number of Wckts taken is;
(8) Based on my recent observations, the exact moments of the game that Siddique will turn up to bowl as well as the exact Batsmen he will be competing against are reasonable grounds to try and truncate the appropriate Probability Matrices;
(9) A very quick assessment has to be made of Romario Shepherd's exact form today in his first interactions on the pitch. Why? It has a few unclear personal metrics and that's absurd in its latest sporting state;
(10) The impact of the wet ground;
(11) The ability to use the D/L method when losing overs due to the rain;
(12) And so on.
I'd love to read other Modelers' perspectives. That game is extremely vast in terms of possible states, and that is part of its beauty and unpredictability.
So far, after the first PowerPlay has ended and the Middle Overs have started, some things have gone as expected from the most likely scenarios modeled before the match:
- Tim Seifert is Out, removed by Behrendorff;
- Junaid Siddique came on when the Tigers were in a knockdown-like state (4 Wckts lost within 5 Overs) and he took the fifth Wckt at the very beginning;
- The most expected excellent bowling performance for the Nationals;
- And so forth.
So weird odds posted before the game, the Nationals were rated as underdogs by the odds compilers, giving us good positions to buy at levels above 2 and later to sell large percentages of the positions as close as the Nationals' price was trending to fall below 1.2 and more at the eve of the first Death Overs stage today.
My guess is that the odds compilers were mostly misled by the recent Nationals and Tigers matchups. On the other hand, no one of the protective grid positions I mentioned in the previous posting was in effect today. That overcame my expectations.
Not to mention some of the secondary markets that differ from MoneyLine. My assumptions for some initial mispricing offered by odds compilers were confirmed by those five Bowlers taking 7 Wckts before the Dead Overs and six Bowlers taking 9 Wckts in total before the break time. All the market positions are closed.
Despite my Model showing me a probability of a worsening Behrendorff's Economy Rate today, that didn't happen at all.
Additionally, no matter that the Model awaited the excellent Bowling Dept for Nationals today, I failed to "forecast" that absolutely all the members of the Nationals' Bowling Dept took Wckts today in the Grand Final vs the Tigers.
Despite generating very low probabilities for Colin Munro's last performing style vs that kind of opposite Bowling structure as Nationals, I was amazed at his time-to-live on the pitch, which lasted only two bowling deliveries...
Let's see what happens later in the rest of the Nationals' batting portion of the game.
