Arbusers

So, Kings XI Punjab have just overcome Mumbai Indians after an epic power Batting thriller by 207/5 : 203/6 i.e. by 5 Wckts & Six balls to spare after the brilliant {(Kumar & Iyer), (Six, NB, Six, Dot, Six, Dot, One Wide, Six)}, WHAT A SYMPHONY, thus Andy Flower vs Ricky Ponting will face off again in Vol.2 within 5 days. The D-Day for the Cricket Olympus attack is June 3rd and Royal Challengers Bengluru vs Kings XI Punjab will decide the Winner of IPL 2025, so what do you think?

The Tamil Nadu Premier League, edition 2025 is in progress,

Dindigul Dragons vs IDream Tiruppur Tamizhans just ended through an unexpectedly fast Endspiel,

I just can't pin down the reason why the Dragons failed by 93/All Out, but apparently the backbone of the team {Varun Chakravarthy (Kolkata Knight Riders) & Ravichandran Ashwin (Chennai Super Kings)} has had a second sub-optimal performance in the Tamil Nadu Premier League within four days, despite the first win over Lyca Kovai Kings, in my opinion.
The very recent Ashwin's 2 Wckts & 8.25 E/R plus sub-optimal 15 R & 125 S/R, combined to Chakravarthy's Zero Wckts & 7.75 E/R vs Lyca,
hinted at hidden fatigue and recent on-the-pitch stress in the very recent IPL 2025, but were not enough to build any steady forecast of today's batting collapse for the rest of the team, despite some of Ashwin's most recently spotted shortcomings in Batting, as well as Chakravarthy's.
On the other hand, Elliott-like Analysis hinted at a slight downtrend today against Tamizhans (Bowling underperformance plus Batting crash for both Chakravarthy & Ashwin), but the custom-made confidence interval was below the required level, so apparently the discrepancies in typical tune-ups between the IPL and TNPL are quite different in 2025 compared to 2024's ones. Some new ideas need to be tested extensively by June 14th, so I hope my improved tune-ups are ready for the Dindigul Dragons vs Siechem Madurai Panthers encounter...

Anyone modeling the TNPL'25?

The Major League Cricket of the USA, the 2025 edition is underway,

San Francisco Unicorns vs Los Angeles Knight Riders are currently playing on the Oakland pitch (remember, this is the Oakland Major League Baseball field, so I'm also monitoring the quality of the pitch preparation for Cricket today!!!);

Regretfully, the liquidity of the desired positions is not very optimal today compared to IPL and PSL, for example, today it is comparable or slightly better to that of the Tamil Nadu Premier League, but luckily a series of at least four-figure positions are taken in an instant.

A few minutes ago, when {Fraser-McGurk(4) & Allen(1)} hit five consecutive Maximums ∈{4.3 OV, 5.1 OV} vs {van Schalkwyk(4) & Andre Russell(1)}, it reminded me of Riyan Parag's six Maximums vs Varun & Moeen Ali, crossed only by One wide & 1, in the game Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals at Eden Gardens in May, and when we're talking about Kolkata Knight Riders I also remembered Rinku Singh's five consecutive Maximums vs Gujarat Titans two years ago, and why not Mohammad Naeem's six Maximums within the {1.6 OV, 7.4 OV} where his batting apogee was within the {2.4, 2.6 OVS}, I mean those famous triple Sixes vs Faheem Ashraf's bowling deliveries in the excellent PSL 2025 final Lahore Qalandars vs Quetta Gladiators, held last month...

Your points of view?
MLC 2025?

Cricket plus Sporting Cars, an extremely good combination.

Great respect for the Croatians, not only for their Soccer & Basketball Stars but also for their cutting-edge Automotive Technology.

youtube.com/watch?v=HSnHQ8-61PY

Everyone knows that the Rimac Nevera R version is probably the most powerful car across the Globe right now and technically speaking Rimac Automobili is entering the automotive Olympus, so in the abovementioned video they said about the acceleration: "We're still meloning" but I wonder whether Mate Rimac himself will allow many fine details of the interior and exterior to be changed, which will immediately lead to disproportionately very large positive effects (+EV) on the visual perception of this technically (almost) perfect hyper car.

I'm trying to imagine what the Nevera R would look like if Marcello Gandini and Luigi Colani were alive and working on that car. As far as I know, the initial project for the Lamborghini Murciélago was suspended until CEO Piëch himself approved a much more inspiring design as the long-term basis for models going forward. The CEO, not the leading designer! The consequences - everyone knows today's Lambo success...

Although these three people are no longer available, the legend Bob Lutz is alive and would certainly change the visual elements where necessary, but he would not change the top-notch core technologies and in my opinion, that would help to give birth to an individual legendary soul in this Masterpiece, i.e. the inspiring element that this car lacks, despite its technical perfectionism. That's a possible scenario for the Nevera R model to rise to the top, rather than sink like the iconic Jaguar XJ220...

Let me put it another way - over the past four hours, an incredible Major League Cricket match between Washington Freedom and the San Francisco Unicorns took place at the Dallas pitch.

According to the odds compilers, the Unicorns were the favorites, but that was just their perspective. In fact, the offered odds before the match insisted that (+EV) belonged to Freedom (analogy to Nevera R).
But it depended solely on the Freedom team itself whether the model calculated EV would turn out to be realized at the end of the match or not. In an earlier Forum posting, I said exactly what Ricky Ponting focuses on and when the Coach has made errors, mainly due to underestimating certain factors.

Almost the same happened today - the Washington team was extremely careful and neutralized to a big extent the bowling effort of Haris Rauf (PSL 2025 winner with Lahore Qalandars), despite conceding a lost wicket, while his own Xavier Bartlett (I mean Xavier competing in Ponting's Kings XI Punjab at IPL 2025) was underestimated as awaited by the Model and when Bartlett eliminated three Batsmen + Maxwell by Rauf, the additional big positive EV was collected by the market (analogy to Nevera R vs opponents at the moment).

Later that game forecasting the game flow was easier - I observed Ponting's obsession with structuring attacking Bowlers in a specific dependent pattern. Despite the absence of classy bowlers like Yuzvendra Chahal, Arshdeep Singh & Marcus Stoinis, with whom the Coach works at KXIP, the calculated probabilities for the Freedom team today indicated that one of the structured Bowlers would aim to cover the partner's errors within the confidence interval, and while today's Ponting's decisions in that area vs San Francisco Unicorns' Batsmen didn't surprise me at all, I was expecting more from Saurabh Netravalkar, also Mitchell Owen had better performance than my forecasts.

In the end, WF won as expected, but from an unbelievably hard position, see exactly when WF lost (1st+2nd Wckt), 3rd and also fourth Wckt, only the great coaching experience plus late good performance helped the team vs SFU, in my opinion. I don't know the match flow if Pat Cummins was on the pitch today as previous season of MLC, and if Shane Watson was a much more experienced Coach. But Cummins is not here and Watson is to some extent new, so the Matrix is smaller, compared to other conditions.

So, in the RimacNeveraR analogy, will that automaker make the right decision in the short/medium term and become iconic? They have cutting-edge tech, but the operative decisions are up to them.

The 2025 Major League Cricket of the USA,

We're expecting the Texas Super Kings vs Washington Freedom match very soon, when the rain stop here;

The following factors helped fine-tune today's model and select appropriate pre-match positions and will help live-mode tune-ups:

- The pre-estimation of the preparation and the up-to-date conditions of the legendary pitch in Lauderhill, the best professionals can adopt various conditions (do you remember extreme settings during the unforgettable classic West Indies vs India finished 245/6 : 244/4 when KL Rahul & Evin Lewis scored 110 & 100 Runs respectively, while Jasprit Bumrah & Ravindra Jadeja, as well as Dwayne Bravo, took 2 Wckts each);

If you want to master the Cricket Logic, think about conditions such as those in Florida and Barbados pitches;

- The current wet conditions in Lauderhill plus the most probable pitch preparation, additional re-building of quite a few things in the Model;

- The most probable starting line-ups for the moments far before the kick-off for placing some good positions in some disoriented outlets (but not exceed my desired risk tolerance if these line-ups are quite different much later at the kick-off, but that way I usually overcame the inadequate early assessment of these odds compilers, who never ever held a Cricket bat or bowled a ball);

- The actual starting line-ups in the express live mode, for the live modeling vs. the inadequate live odds when they appear, provided by some odds compilers, they simply have no idea about that wonderful game;

- I pre-modeled Marcus Stoinis (KXIP, TSK) for Fleming(CSK, TSK) vs Ponting(KXIP, WF), and also Rachin Ravindra (CSK, WF) for Ponting(KXIP, WF) vs Fleming(CSK, TSK), which gave some interesting options;

- Saurabh Netravalkar is in today's line-up, but I prefer to change some parameters regarding his Bowling efforts compared to the previous modeling conditional time interval;

- Noor Ahmad's expected performance would be decisive in pre-modeled cases (i.e. modified Kelly in these ones);

- If Fleming sent Zia-ul-Haq vs those WF Batsmen I forecast, that would be a significant possibility vs. wrong offered odds;

- I don't support Fleming's decision to put Devon Conway on the bench today, especially vs the WF team, thus I try to guess his further strategy in detail;

- I slightly changed Andries Gous' parameters as a Batsman and left unchanged pre-estimation as a WicketKeeper;

- Lockie Ferguson's Stats parameters and his expected performance are clear;

- Building a forecast about a sub-classic within the Cricket classics, i.e. Stephen Fleming vs Ricky Ponting, the next round of this Coaching battle, thousands of my completed sheets and endless of my personal impressions in the IPL and here at MLC are the basis of the forecast, Over-by-Over etc;

This battle has unique characteristics and is quite different from Ricky Ponting vs Mahela Jayawardene, or Stephen Fleming vs Daniel Vettori and so on;

- Picky Ponting has opted for his team to bowl first;

- Prepared for personal D/L Method calculations if the rain shortened the Overs;

- And so on, and so forth...


By the way, until the rain stops, I try to model what would happen
IF conditions X,Y,Z appear (pure hypothetically, of course):

- What would happen IF the Lauderhill 2016 heroes were participating today? Evin Lewis, KL Rahul, Jasprit Bumrah, Ravindra Jadeja?

- What if Yashasvi Jaiswal was the opening Batsman for one of the teams (say WF), and Vaibhav Suryavanshi was Batsman #3 in the batting order in the opponent team today?
What would happen if Jason Holder was recruited to bowl vs Suryavanshi and Imran Tahir was recruited and sent vs Jaiswal?

What would be the correct odds in these cases?

Why?

The modeling is so funny, isn't it?

The beautiful test match India @ England at Edgbaston, day Fourth in progress,

Let me go back to Headingley a few days ago.
I was extremely impressed with the successful chase of the 371 target plus the overcoming of the {Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, (Rishabh Pant x 2), KL Rahul} scored Tons, and also exactly how Coach Brendon McCullum handled the risky way to the turning point.
When I re-tested thoroughly the turning points at Leeds, I understood the details of the Coaches Gambhir & Morkel's lack of quick reaction to McCullum's overly risky and ultimately winning orders. The market, as usual, was asleep at the starting point of the turnaround in England and that was also my self-criticism that I didn't recognize the starting point of the turnaround in Leeds at the fantastic offered price;

Let's go back to the current encounter at Edgbaston;
Based on what I observed on the Leeds pitch, I calculated (according to my personal modification of the Kelly Cricket Criterion based on the starting line-ups & McCullum's choice to bowl first) the most probable optimum of the custom-made Math function regarding the most valuable entry points and naturally a huge market entry was in effect at the moment of England's 75th Ov & 355/5 at that moment, taking in mind initial India's 587/All Out within 151 Ovs!!!
The odds-compilers' algorithms are often inadequate, or the people who calculated the odds had never ever held a Cricket bat, so there were some outlets offered {(equal odds for India to win & England to win), as well as different odds for a draw} at the moment 587:355/5 and that was madness!!! You saw exactly how England collapsed seriously for the next Batting interval, conceding five Wckts within 14.3 overs;
Let's leave the calculation of the value zone and its placing of the markets right now and talk about pure trading on the markets; I have chosen to assign specific EMAs to the most promising forecasted players selected in Birmingham's Test line-ups and I also wonder why Gambhir & Morkel left all the group∈{Sai Sudharsan, Kuldeep Yadav & Jasprit Bumrah} on the bench, not to mention Arshdeep Singh...

Your opinions?

Also, what are your thoughts on the Los Angeles Knight Riders vs. Mumbai Indians New York game that starts in four hours at the legendary Lauderhill? Do you like the Major League Cricket?

Does anyone pre-model these ones at Edgbaston/Lauderhill?

The Fifth day of the 2nd Test match at Edgbaston, India @ England is about to start within a few minutes;

In that Historic Test match (India scored over 1000 Runs vs England @ Birmingham, WOW) I decided to add another and completely new portfolio of positions, especially for the Fifth day, NOT contradictory to my previous positions;
Urgently prepared new tune-ups for the Day5th/2ndTest Model based on the following:
- Main focus on India Bowling Coach Morkel's Mind and NOT on India Head Coach Gambhir today; The possibilities are endless here;
- I can't forecast for sure 100% England's tactics for today, but I think Coach McCullum will have an internal struggle about the usual Tactics (when and IF it's possible within the Day Fifth) of usual attacking Batting versus rare defending Batting style, aiming to save the Draw today;
- Although I'm not focusing on so-called Cricket Ducks, I calculated some probabilities of England batsmen being dismissed mainly in these intervals in the following order: {(1) First Two Overs today, (2) First Eight overs, (3) Next Seven or maybe Eight Overs after the forecasted (2) point, (4) The rest of today};
- IF conditions (1), (2), (3) are not met after the aforementioned time interval, huge Kelly Cricket Criterion, some modifications will occur and I'm curious what the odds offered would be at this point and whether a hidden opportunity like this will arise on the markets, compared to the Model forecasted one;
- The weather forecast for Birmingham (due to the possibility of a Draw to save England today) has been entered into the D5/2T Model; 46, 44, 47, 32,17 pct in the next several hours of rain plus thunder;
- Re-revisited probabilities for today's Indian Bowling Dept

Your points of view?

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 06, 2025 9:51 am

...
I calculated some probabilities of England batsmen being dismissed mainly in these intervals in the following order: {(1) First Two Overs today, (2) First Eight overs, (3) Next Seven or maybe Eight Overs after the forecasted (2) point, (4) The rest of today};
...

Condition (1) - failed forecast (self-criticism);
Condition (2) - forecasted status - OK x 2, but far beyond double extra benefits collected;
Condition (3) - failed forecast (strong self-criticism, eliminates a certain percentage of the P accumulated so far);
Thus, immediately triggered slight fine re-tuning of the 5D/2T custom-made Model about the rest of the game, i.e. new parameters forecasted about the (4) - Ravindra Jadeja's up-to-date forecasted Bowling parameters, plus a new batting behavior of Jamie Smith and Co;
Washington Sundar's next bowling effort is an enigma for me today;

By the way, the IDream Tiruppur Tamizhans @ Dindigul Dragons Big Final of the Tamil Nadu Premier League has just started, the initial line-ups plus the Dragons' decision to Bowl first, are added to the Model and to the {Ravichandran Ashwin+Baba Indrajith+Varun Chakravarthy} vs the {Sai Kishore + XY} Matrices;

Let's see what happens.

Your points of view?

England & Jamie Smith were trapped chasing the quota of the 10 RPO versus the Top-Notch India, so the inevitable happened (although I expected the job against Smith to be done by Ravindra Jadeja).

By the way, plenty of extra Value Points shine in the Tamil Nadu final, and I'm not talking about the major markets here. Just look at the pitch and you'll see these ones in a specific secondary market.

- The third Test India@England at London's Lord's is in progress, with a few hours until the start of Day 3rd;
The starting lineups before Day 1 (mostly the preliminary assessment of notable Bowlers) shortened the probability interval of scoring a smaller number of Runs in the pre-selected ΔT intervals, as well as building the pseudo-independent Function describing the most likely Total Runs at the end, compared to the second Test at Edgbaston a few days ago;
Interestingly, circa the fifth Wckt for Jasprit Bumrah vs England dismissing Jofra Archer in the 109.3 Ov, three different of my long-term EMAs crossed, so I expect some predetermined by the Model things during the second Innings, but still limit opening the massive sums of following positions until one of the following conditions occurs first - start of the second session on Day 3 OR ΔOdds compared to the current Odds (i.e. at the end of the second day) reaches the calculated Trigger Level, bearing in mind the relatively constant dispersion in terms of Variables of the current English Bowlers (excluding Chris Woakes, of course) within the India's first Batting Innings;
I spotted an interesting thing while watching current English Bowling deliveries vs India, and I can't determine whether Coach McCullum ordered that or just happened by the match flow, I mean the following: the dispersion of the Variables describing Woakes himself is quite different from that of the group, but that is just a trap for India: when he is aided by the optimal fielding positions of his teammates on the pitch, combined with a possible high efficiency of Jofra Archer's Bowling, the estimate of Woakes' individual contribution to England's total Bowling effort reminds me of Chris Woakes appearance for the Kolkata Knight Riders team within the IPL a long time ago; In my view that's the reason the Atomic Batting Weapons Yashasvi Jaiswal & Shubman Gill were eliminated at a quota of only 13 & 16 respectively;
I'm pretty sure the India Coaching Staff spotted that as soon as it came up, so I'm guessing what their next tactical moves are for Day 3. Let's see what happens;


- The Major League Cricket 2025, the Qualifier 2 between the Mumbai Indians New York and the Texas Super Kings is startin' in a few minutes;
I decided not to model this match, just watch it and focus my efforts on the MLC 2025 final, so today's match will determine the opponent of Ricky Ponting's team, Washington Freedom, in the final. I don't exclude the probabilities of the Ricky Ponting vs Stephen Fleming, a Coaching-Masterpiece-Grand-battle, Vol.2 in the Final, who knows? That would be wonderful;

- Now I'm fully focused on the Global Super League 2025, the Guyana Amazon Warriors vs Central Districts clash has started;
Endless personal impressions and gathered data, and custom-made Stats over the years about Rahmanullah Gurbaz (Kolkata Knight Riders & Islamabad Utd), Moeen Ali (Kolkata Knight Riders), Imran Tahir (Chennai Super Kings & Karachi Kings, etc), Shimron Hetmyer
(Rajasthan Royals), thus the modeling of that clash is a natural flow and joy;
I'm sorry that Evin Lewis & Saud Shakeel are on the bench today.
Also, I observe the Guyana Amazon Warriors and the pitch condition in Providence, as part of my preparation for modeling the 2025 Caribbean Premier League starting next month.

Your opinions?