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For the love of the game. Cricket actually

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arb12
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:01 am

About Pak vs Eng Test,

I didn't watch the first four days, but I used a lot of Stats for them. I'm always impressed when a Test match touches 4 R/R at some stages, this derby was at a level of around 4.5 R/R at the end!
The batting power of the teams in their first innings (657 and 579) was outstanding.
A lot of tactical decisions in England's declaration of 264/7d, and the most interesting thing started at that point. I think PAK's target, especially for the fifth day, was very achievable for them.
At the moment, when the Pakistani team was 257/5 and pursued an easy target below 90, they were favorites. Again I remembered PAK's "talent" to collapse their batting order. With one wicket in hand, they looked settled and showed very quality defensive Batting performance, 99.99 percent getting a Draw, but…

In short, a Match for history.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:53 pm

The first match i ever traded was new zealand vs india 2014 ODI, i did focus on it for a little while i just found that it can take too long and you have to spend a lot of time understanding the match situation. With regards to this match, i think this england team is really changing the way test cricket is played. They will loose a few matches along the way. But win far more then they loose and more importantly win matches that no one would think they have a chance to win.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:37 am

The second ODI of the Bangladesh vs India series will begin in a few hours. Sony Sports Network will broadcast it.

I'm tired of the endless experiments lately by the Indian selectors. If the BCCI wants stability, that is not the way. I mean the constant rotation of players lately and the lack of time to test and improve new ideas from them. I mean mostly ODI format, and T20 as well.
A few days ago, Rohit Sharma was again picked as the captain of the Blues, and Kohli and Rahul were also back on track. Some concepts were tried out again by some of the old players, but changing the team's performance after the New Zealand tour wasn't possible within a single match.
The Blues failed on two occasions: a point score similar to the T20 pattern in an ODI match, and later the Bowlers were so tolerant when, after the bowling tsunami (three wickets taken in the 39th and 40th Ov), they didn't remove the 10th Bangladeshi Batsman from 136/9 to 187/9! Kumar and Bumrah wouldn't do that way...

In the second ODI of the series, I'll skip the markets and I'm about to tune up the model with some tests. For those tests, I'll mostly rely on a custom-made set of technical curves and selected data processing. Due to the unpredictable long phases of experiments and tactical surprises from India recently, fundamental analysis will be skipped in live mode, but will be performed in detail in post-analysis. Some further iterations of the above will be tried for backtests etc.

I'd love to read your views and approaches on this ODI match and that Series in general.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:15 am

From a sporting point of view, the Indian bowling department is much improved today in terms of quality performance.
I think Bangladesh's decision to bat first was a mistake.
From a technical analysis point of view, I think that the first time interval from the beginning till the 25.5 Ov, 100/6, Siraj 2 Wickets Taken, Washington 3 Wickets Taken, the curves and the model generated results are similar to the best performance of the past. Some slight and steady trends are spotted. But the risk factor is not minimized at all!
Now the market is in a volatile range stage, waiting for the lines to be broken, currently 178/6 at 41 Ov.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:51 am

At some point at the end of the first part of the game when the Indian bowling was slow (before the 7th wicket), some partial trend curves show almost 9 R/R of Bangladesh in a short limited time. I am looking to further process that pulse Ratio given that the main R/R is below 5.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Wed Dec 07, 2022 11:11 am

The Blues' bowling ended badly after a sparkling start. What's more interesting here is that some graphs were relatively slow to respond to this. I mean the interval from 26th to 45th Ov.
Provided that Bangladesh surpassed the average R/R on this pitch, the Indian team started their batting part in such a strange way.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:44 pm

I think that the things that happened on the pitch between the 20th and 26th Ov after the break are not adequately reflected in some indicators, I mean value-predictive ones.
And it also looks like Shreyas Iyer is a central figure in some risky coaching experiments for the Indian ODI team this year.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:36 pm

What a thriller at the end!
Did they try Rohit Sharma as a Finisher? S/R close to 200, 5 sixes in the final overs, Fifty in no time, but were the risks bearable from his very late opt-in here?
Has the coaching staff changed the National ODI team very close to the Mumbai Indians-like, IPL-finishing style? But Sharma as a Finisher?
And again, a lot of material for the future construction of quick graphs and their tuning.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:23 pm

A very impressive performance in the NZ T20 Super Smash by Auckland Aces vs Otago Volts. I have two main factors in mind here:
- First, the initial shocking underestimations in favor of Otago in terms of pre-match odds. I was amazed at the odds offered by global and local agencies.
- Second, much later in game mode, the way the Oakland team literally squandered the win when it was all in their hands.
That's a brilliant case for a backtest, especially for the way the leveling happened.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:33 pm

The first T20 battle of the future series between India and Sri Lanka is coming up soon.
Over the next few hours, the agencies will be sharpening their lines to some extent, but don't forget that tomorrow the slightly underrated player Hardik Pandya will feature while the classic powerhouses Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma are resting.
The way Pandya runs the game should be factored into the model, accounting for possibly two or three sub-optimal positions in the initial starting line-up. The second tough task in the preliminary analysis is assessing the missing duo of Kohli (slightly tired lately) and Sharma. There aren't many approaches available for Pandya to solve this problem, but given the contemporary Indian T20 sporting shape and the differences with the Sri Lankan team, I think he can try some sub-optimal experiments, potentially adding some value if that happens. You need to see the starting line-up and starting tactics and reassess them very quickly within your predefined game plan.

I have no idea about the current conditions of the Wankhede's ground. The initial Overs and Satellite/Stream viewing are a must to add value, given that the Wankhede's pitch may be prepared differently compared to Mumbai Indians' appearance in IPL 2022.
On the other hand, if the Blues have to bat first, I see some hypothetical problems for them.
First, the paradox that the Sri Lankan team is the current Asian champion, but they are very unpredictable in any given conditional interval. They have some good tactical settings and poor execution and sometimes perfect bowling performances, especially against India. Remember IND vs SL in Asia Cup and the perfect bowling from Sri Lanka, restricting India to 173 for 8 wickets, scoring 174 after that... Remember SL in the Asia Cup final, reaching 170 and restricting Pakistan to 147...
In my opinion, at the Wankhede the Blues need to organize their batting to score a minimum of 180 - 185 runs and more to be ahead in the second part. Here I'm assuming the appearance of the best possible Sri Lankan starting line-up and a classic preparation at the Wankhede's pitch, but the match day will reveal much more information, and some points of the trading plan must be corrected within the approved plan.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:49 pm

Only exceptional luck saved India minutes ago vs the current Asian champions. The agencies' favorite Indian team was rated before the match in the range of about 1.3 to 1.4.

The hosts started with a few debutants, which promise well for the future quality of the team, but they had to manage the risks of that decision. Terrible performance of batting, just 101 Runs in their favor before starting the Dead Overs. Not to mention the most critical points at 10.3 and 14.1 Ov. Here I mean not only a sporting viewpoint but a huge market influence. Luckily for them, they somehow finished not too far from the Wankhede's Par Score.

Another market storm was triggered between the 18th and the Final Over for the SL batting, and another questionable experiment was the management's decision to bring in Axar Patel into the final bowling attack, coming there with a running ratio of over 10 ECON. Only Patel's exceptional behavior saved the match for the pre-match favorite, but in the long run, this decision is questionable. SL was two runs away from the Super Over and three away from victory.

In short, the pre-match price for SL as a heavy underdog is a huge value in the absence of old gold Indian players and constant experimentation by the BCCI. On the other hand, today there were some arguments for additional trading points in the markets at some stages of the match, as well as a reassessment of risk. There are two days until the next game of this series in Pune and some backtests could confirm or change the initial impressions from today. This will help the trading plan for the next game.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:12 pm

Today's win for Sri Lanka was easily "predictable" because of some basic fundamentals in the preliminary analysis days ago.
An outstanding cameo happened on the pitch in Pune for the duo of Axar Patel & Suryakumar Yadav. This Gayle-style storm (14th and 15th Ov) coupled with elegant risk management by the Indian coaching staff and some other tactical things have led to interesting things seen in the markets, but some unexpected profitable market moments such as the behavior of the slightly delayed technical curves need to be re-analyzed and tested at any cost.
I'd love to read your impressions of today's show in Pune.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:52 pm

The BPL, 28th match at the moment, five overs to go.
An unexpected, near-perfect performance by the bowling department for the Chattogram team during the first 10 Overs in their bowling portion of the game resulted in a much smaller drop in odds than predicted in favor of Sylhet. I mean the preset time interval within this game, selected by the model, and the implied entry/exit pattern. In my opinion, that helped a lot to avoid much riskier moments in the Moneyline market.
Last edited by arb12 on Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:06 pm

The storm in the 15th Over caused by a combination of triple Six and double Four was successfully delayed in the time by the visiting team (as a huge pre-match underdog) and the likelihood of this is one of the aspects in my previous post.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:26 pm

In my opinion, the backtests of this game and similar ones will clarify the situation to some extent whether following the strong Favorite at the right time to trade is more profitable than the limited-time trading behavior described above in my previous posts. On the other hand, in the second situation, the risk/reward ratio initially looks much better. But the limited set of this kind of data is a problem for fundamental analysis later on.

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