Arbusers

The T20 Series, India Ladies vs South Africa Ladies currently in Chennai, the second part is in progress now.

While the batting achievements of Laura Wolvaardt (Gujarat), Marizanne Kapp (Delhi) & Chloe Tryon (Mumbai Indians) are within the pre-modeled probability intervals, I am extremely impressed by Tazmin Brits (81 Runs scored) - I didn't spot her competing in IPL Ladies. Additionally, as far as I know, she switched to Cricket from a very different kind of sport, WOW!
In the second Ov. the power batting effort from Mandhana against bowling deliveries from Tryon brought India's market odds back from nowhere to Evens - i.e. the contingency plan for India is in effect now after the conceding of 189 runs vs SA Ladies. Secondary triggers from the Model are in effect in the main markets.

By the way, the lack of big attendance at the stadium in Chennai makes a bad impression on the observers. This does not help ladies' Cricket at all...

The Major League Cricket 2024 of the USA starts in a few minutes,

Mumbai Indians New York vs the Seattle Orcas team in Morrisville.

Does anyone care to share an opinion?

Major League Cricket 2024,

Match #2 Texas Super Kings vs. Los Angeles Knight Riders will start in about an hour in Dallas.

In order to build a reliable hypothetical Model for that event, I worked on several tasks. Among them are the following:
- The hidden differences between the teams coached by Stephen Fleming. Chennai Super Kings have quite a few compared to Texas Super Kings;
- The exact role, expected from Marcus Stoinis in MLC 2024. He moved from the San Francisco Unicorns to the Texas Super Kings for a reason;
- The pre-estimation of who and exactly how will try to stop Sunil Narine & Andre Russell? The matrix for Texas should be simplified. In my opinion, Marcus Stoinis as a Bowler should play in specific cases vs given opponents but also has quality leakage in very specific other occasions - spotted from his last KXIP years till now;
- I've got a clear idea of ​​exactly who will be positioned for Knight Riders vs. Devon Conway provided that he is in the starting line-up, so the leading probabilities are in;
- Additionally, due to Fleming's coaching style, I'm guessing a very quick adaptive role for Aidan Markram for some tasks;
- I prefer to wait for some moves by coach Phil Simmons to better learn his further ideas about the exact usability of David Miller and Adam Zampa in LA Knight Riders;
- Others.

Let's enjoy the game very soon.

The intriguing match of India's new T20 experimental team vs Zimbabwe in Harare is in progress right now (no Rohit Sharma, no Virat Kohli, no Coach Rahul Dravid etc), Sanju Samson & Shivam Dube are doing pretty well right now from what I spot at the moment.

But let's pay respect to the Old and Golden Heroes of yesteryear.

World Championship of Legends, the Final in Birmingham, India Legends vs Pakistan Legends:

youtube.com/watch?v=YZmWiTOmrWw

Salute to Shahid Afridi, Ambati Rayudu, Shoaib Malik, Robin Uthappa, Sohail Tanvir, Suresh Raina, Wahab Riaz, Yuvraj Singh, etc, etc and also salute all the Legends of Cricket who didn't participate in that tournament!

Thank you all for the great memories you've given us on the pitches over the years!

My big appeal to both the BCCI and the PCB: please resurrect the India vs Pakistan bilateral Series, please approve the participation of Indian masters in PSL and please approve the participation of Pakistani masters in IPL! The current situation is utter nonsense, you are taking the joy out of the game for Cricket fans!

The link above regarding the World Cup of Legends, The Final seems to be no longer valid, that's why I am posting another link:

youtube.com/watch?v=VQuMDyOq5Ac

Full Respect to the Old Heroes again!

The Grand Final of the 2024 LPL T20 is right now in Colombo.

One of the biggest market opportunities in the entire tournament has now emerged.

My rationale:
- The way exactly how the Galle Marvels team touched 184 for 6 through Seifert's 47 and Rajapaksa's 82 despite Fernando's killer bowling;
- The reason Alex Hales & Dickwella failed too soon (why exactly Jason Behrendorff's action was too successful today);
- The pre-modeled tight margin action of Jaffna Kings regarding their batting portion of the game today vs challenging bowling of Dwaine Pretorius & Theekshana; Here I mean the unusually clear "forecast" based on selected EMA curves plus current sporting form and observed tactical decisions today;
- Odds circa 2.00 for both the teams during the break-time. The odds compilers gave us golden opportunities today!

Addendum: Pretorius to Nissanka action resulted in Wckt in 0.1 Ov was unexpected in terms of the exact point of the time scale period, but today's Model pointed out the general probabilities.

Major League Cricket'2024, the Eliminator match between Texas Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians New York is in progress now.

While the Texas Super Kings finished third in the regular season (+0.604 NR ratio), the Mumbai Indians NY should thank LA Knight Riders' batsmen Sunil Narine and David Miller for their one-figure scored runs (LAKR vs MINY), ensuring the Mumbai Indians NY team's place in the playoffs due to a better NR ratio (MI's (-0.451) vs LA's (-0.710)).

Based on what I've spotted in both teams' matchups so far in MLC'24, I decided to experiment today by using only fourteen main variables to compile my pre-match true odds and also help my trading plan. Why? These fourteen are the main differences between teams describing Delta > 20 relative points, while the next N variables (N>>100) are quite synchronous and their Delta < 20 R.P.
Therefore, diggin' into the experiment of development of pre-selected 14 main matrices and N simplified submatrices saved a lot of time and naturally, the Model's tune-ups for today's clash were additionally reinforced by:
- The announced line-ups;
- The calculated probabilities of appearance or not and variations of a thing, called by me "West-Indian Games" (for example, the situation on the pitch on July 21 in Dallas involving Andre Russell, Kieron Pollard and Nicholas Pooran in 19.1 Ov.). Today I "forecasted" something special for Dwayne Bravo in a tight probability interval;
- The analysis of the graphics of M pre-selected and quite stable variables of Texas Super Kings under Fleming against those M variables that were quite volatile for Mumbai Indians New York before today. Here M≠N and also M are not equal to the number of today's main matrices;
- And so forth.

Let's enjoy the game now.

Any Modelers' or Cricket lovers' opinions?

The 2024 Canadian Global T20 started a few hours ago!

In case you watched the 2024 opening match Toronto Nationals vs Vancouver Knights (finished a few minutes ago), you'll probably agree that historically many clashes on the Brampton pitch aren't difficult to model broadly, but have hidden specifics in forecasting on given details in case you participate in specifical niche markets.

For example, I personally was surprised by the coach's decision to keep Andries Gous and Romario Shepherd on the bench, as well as Mohammad Nawaz. I think they had to play today.
Also, I expected more from Reeza Hendricks.
Jason Behrendorff, Colin Munro and Rassie van der Dussen played today as I expected.
Sandeep Lamichhane's performance was in the "forecasted" by me interval. However, Junaid Siddiqui's four taken Wckts today were a big surprise to me. He actually removed Reeza Hendricks.

Therefore, I'll temporarily freeze the experimental tune-ups of my new 2024 Canada Global T20 Model until extensive re-testing gives me quite a few answers.
The stop-loss points and hedging techniques on your trading plan are golden, in case something goes wrong, use them as insurance.

And when it comes to Canadian Global T20 and Vancouver Knights, I remember again and again the Universe Boss' 122 Runs scored vs Sunil Narine (Kolkata Knight Riders), Anton Devcich (do you remember him?), Sean Abbott (Ex - SunRisers Hyderabad) & Co:

youtube.com/watch?v=hytJU003E9U

That famous Canadian 276/3 in a single T20 match was overcome in the 2024 IPL by SunRisers Hyderabad under Vettori (287/3).


Addendum: my mistake, apparently Andries Gous' engagements with Washington are not over yet.
I hope we see Gous in Canada T20 soon.

Major League Cricket 2024, the Qualifier match between Washington Freedom vs San Francisco Unicorns has started.

The big irony here is that the IPL's Delhi Capitals parted ways with Ricky Ponting, while the Washington Freedom have performed almost perfectly under Ponting in the 2024 MLC, and finished as # 1 in the regular season.
The biggest irony is that the Washington Freedom's only loss was days ago against... San Francisco.

This fact plus tons of collected data and statistics in Major League Cricket challenged me to try my approach in this playoff clash.

My today's tune-ups are accented by:
- Travis Head's forecasted score, but the probable margin is different today in my judgment;
- Saurabh Netravalkar's projected interactions today.
The main problem here was to eliminate some of the low probable ones;
- The same for Haris Rauf from the opposite team, but the quality support from the fielders is pre-estimated quite different according to my observations so far;
- I expect some unusual action in the pre-defined timeline point (I mean (X to Y) Ov.) based on the recent match between these teams plus the usual decisions of Ponting seen in recent years mainly in Delhi Capitals. But today I expect a different reaction from the opposition. The likelihood is close to 50 percent;
- And many others.

Let's enjoy the game now.

Would you share your personal vision for that playoff?

The 2024 Major League Cricket, the so-called Challenger match Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns started a few minutes ago.

- The last 12-hour period of price action has shown a general disorientation of odds makers across the globe and also market participants. Hard to believe, but it's true. Excellent entry market points were gifted to the observers of the game (I mean the main market);

- Coach Fleming put on the bench Dwayne Bravo (Baartman in play today). That's a very important accent for specific niche market positions;

- I'm experimenting with a fresh new concept to model exactly what Economy Rate / Wckts interval these three will achieve: Hassan Khan, Haris Rauf and Pat Cummins. Le Roux is not in that calculating matrix for simplicity reasons;

- I have some doubts about Marcus Stoinis today;

By the way, I think Aiden Markram would be pretty OK on the pitch vs exactly that opponent, but the coach left him on the bench again.

The 2024 USA Major League Cricket, the Grand Final is yet to begin. San Francisco Unicorns vs. Washington Freedom is scheduled to start in 9 hours.

In order to build my real odds on the primary market and also on the secondary markets, as well as build the most probable Model for today, I decided on the following:
(1) There is absolutely no room for experimental approaches in the Model today, but the abundance of follow-up analyses of previous experimental tune-ups of the previous 2024 MLC clashes is very welcome;
(2) Re-watching and deep re-analyzing of IPL finals when Coach Ricky Ponting won the trophy with Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings (2015) and finished runners-up with Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians (2020);
(3) Re-assessment of the usual tactical approaches from Ponting, especially in Delhi. On the other hand, today's opponent Coach Shane Watson was Ponting's assistant in Daredevils;
(4) In fact, Watson has no long coaching career so far, but the things he does in Unicorns are amazing and I tried to study them;
(5) Inputting into the Model the most recent Texas pitch particularities;
(6) Re-watching and deep re-analyzing of both the 2024 IPL Qualifier 1 and also the Final match: Kolkata Knight Riders vs. SunRisers Hyderabad. Why? I think Travis Head's zero in both of those clashes and Pat Cummins' 12.7 E/R (1 Wckt) and 9.00 (again 1 Wckt) gave us food for thought... What exactly would be the countermeasures against these obstacles against their hypothetical re-emergence undertaken by the two coaches Watson and Ponting? There are many possibilities here to calculate the probabilities…
Here I mean Travis Head is the Golden Batsman for Ponting and Pat Cummins is one of the Golden Bowlers for Watson...
In my opinion, removing Travis Head prematurely would be a disaster for Washington Freedom if the heavy batting support is missing...
That's why at least two submatrices are calculated, but nothing is really certain...
(7) Saurabh Netravalkar's pre-modeled most likely interactions.
I want to watch his Bowling action in IPL 2025;
(8) The pre-match probability calculations of the hidden Jokers' most likely interaction probabilities, backed by their actions in Major League Cricket in 2024: Finn Allen, Hassan Khan, Haris Rauf, Steven Smith and so on…
(9) At least one big "surprise" on the pitch today;
(10) When it comes to forecasting the action of Rachin Ravindra, Marco Jansen & Sherfane Rutherford, I prefer to put these three in a different matrix for a reason;
(11) Plenty of additional custom-made Graphs and Stats analysis;
(12) And so on, and so forth...

Your opinions?
I would love to read your modeling approaches in the lovely game of Cricket.
Let's share and exchange opinions.

Sri Lanka vs India, the amazing 1st One Day International just ended!

I spotted a list of interesting circumstances early that day that intrigued me to model a list of probabilities before the start of this match in Colombo.

My error in terms of missed opportunities here was not participating in markets involving a tied match. What a missed calculating opportunity!

When it comes to forecasting and modeling on the fly, the way Shivam Dube started his stint on the pitch after KL Rahul's dismissal from Hasaranga reminds me of some of MS Dhoni's ideas of hitting the opposition suddenly between the 40th and 50th Ov.

While I was unable to forecast quickly the probability of maximum action by Dube vs Dananjaya in 41.4 Ov, a very clear trigger (Prob > 85%) rang to me before Hasaranga's delivery toward Shivam in 46.3 regardless of Hasaranga's last action against Dube described by a sequence of (1 Leg Bye, Dot Ball, 1, 1) and an inside bowling action Asalanka against Dube (1, Dot Ball) in between.

Again, Shivam Dube's approach with the bat in 42nd Ov as he scored a Maximum and also One run among four very strong Dot Balls in Dananjaya's action back some memories of some clashes not just at the Chennai pitch over the years. This and other things I spotted over the years were among the very strong grounds for predicting the upcoming action in the coming minutes.

I was impressed by dozens of details in the approach of both teams today on the ground in Colombo, so on subsequent analysis much more adequate Model tune-ups would be possible for the second ODI on August 4.

Any impressions from your side? Anyone watching/trading that India vs Sri Lanka series?

Is anyone currently trading those two:

- Tamil Nadu Premier T20 League, the Final: Dindigul Dragons vs Lyca Kovai Kings at Chennai?

- 2nd ODI from the Serie Sri Lanka vs India at Colombo?

Let's share opinions live.

Due to the existence of the sole major Cricket thread in this Forum, I'll move here my answer to that thread:
cricket-betting-t9957/
That way more Cricket pundits would comment if they wanted to.



That's certainly quite possible somewhere outside of Europe - there are much better places that allow you to use consistent 5 figure market positions if you need it. There are places that could provide far more markets than any EU-based soft agency.
Keep in mind that searching for reliable entities is solely your responsibility and not an easy task.

When it comes to the odds swing you've mentioned on the MoneyLine market (here I won't comment on the odds margin in your example), that's pretty understandable for the Observers - the Cricket game has hundreds of variables and that's why not only odds swing is "predictable" in terms of a tight interval of probabilities, but also a set of other possible scenarios.
For example, I've seen cases where a team, after getting a live price of something like 1.00XX (i.e. > 99.10 % implied probabilities of winning according to the market), ended up losing due to critical factors that occurred on the pitch that were NOT properly evaluated by the participants. Naturally, those cases are rare, but they do happen every now and then.
But the cases where a leading team loses after receiving live odds < 1.09XX (i.e. > 90.99 % implied win probabilities), due to such critical factors, are much easier to "forecast" in terms of the Probability Theory, enhanced by a very deep understanding of exactly what and WHY is currently happening on the Cricket pitch!
In my view, market participants relying on "alert services" are most likely to fail to correctly detect and properly re-assess key factors on the Cricket pitch.

Not to mention the usability of the Statistics collected from other observed scenarios not only on the MoneyLine market but also on a fairly wide range of markets offered... Try to process those Data and Statistics.

Canada's 2024 Global T20,
Montreal Tigers vs. Toronto Nationals Grand Final, hopefully, the game will start as soon as the rain stops.

(1) My last attempts at fine-tuning the 2024 Canadian T20 custom Model weren't too easy due to six eliminated games with "NoResult" or "Abandoned" status.
As a workaround, I decided for today's Model tune-ups to introduce protective margins for quite a few variables. However, due to a lack of time, the range of approximations is mostly based on my observations of the current players and also what I have spotted in the Ontario pitch so far;
(2) Nevertheless, a defined number of variables are handled and calculated in the usual way, based on the common sense of what is seen in contemporary Cricket at similar tiers of the game;
(3) The implied probabilities of the published odds in some of the markets for Tigers vs. Nationals are weird compared to what I've calculated for myself, but I am quite aware of what I am telling you in (1), therefore, choosing an additional grid of well-chosen stop losses would reduce the risk;
(4) I've spotted a lot of things about Andries Gous' behavior on the pitch and decided to move him into a slightly expanded Matrix to try to more accurately calculate Gous's probabilities today;
(5) I think Tim Seifert's sub-optimal spot in the batting order would blow the team against a sudden strong delivery from a fast Bowler (prob >20% today vs the opponent);
(6)A very strong Trigger (prob > 66.7% today) insists that Colin Munro's fairly straightforward updated batting style will produce a clear result in terms of Strike Rate interval of {X-Y, X+Y} against any of the Top Three opposition Bowlers;
(7) Jason Behrendorff's consistency in his supreme Bowling style is among the deciding factors for the outcome, but I wonder what the likelihood of a worsening Economy Rate and an increase in the number of Wckts taken is;
(8) Based on my recent observations, the exact moments of the game that Siddique will turn up to bowl as well as the exact Batsmen he will be competing against are reasonable grounds to try and truncate the appropriate Probability Matrices;
(9) A very quick assessment has to be made of Romario Shepherd's exact form today in his first interactions on the pitch. Why? It has a few unclear personal metrics and that's absurd in its latest sporting state;
(10) The impact of the wet ground;
(11) The ability to use the D/L method when losing overs due to the rain;
(12) And so on.

I'd love to read other Modelers' perspectives. That game is extremely vast in terms of possible states, and that is part of its beauty and unpredictability.