Arbusers

UK The Hundred competition now. The partnership between Russell and Buttler has just been broken by Hogan, but unless the current odds for Manchester Originals are increased by 50 percent of the current odds, plus additional conditions like if Quinton de Kock plus the second batsman scoring at least 1.75 Runs per ball in the chase, I don't support hedging operations in the market.

T20 Asia Cup, the mega derby India vs Pakistan is goin' to start soon.
So, despite India's win vs that rival days ago at the same tournament at the group stage, today's pre-match agencies' odds for them are much higher. In order to compile my odds, in my model input the estimation regarding the influence of Ravindra Jadeja's absence due to injury. His appearance in the last match was almost perfect - the best Economy Rate for the team despite the lack of wickets taken, and on the other hand the best batting performance - 35 runs (as V. Kohli) but a better Strike Ratio.
Among the various factors in the pre-match estimations are:
- The style of captaincy by Rohit Sharma - strivin' to achieve a better balance between the departments in the team, but some batting sharpness, spotted under Virat Kohli's captaincy, is sacrificed in my view. At that point, I'm tryin' to estimate the variants when and whether Rohit Sharma will take much riskier tactics, especially if the Pakistani team enforces a hard bowling attack today. In my view, that's a must for them, if they have to bowl first.
- Bowling order for Pakistan - I wonder how exactly to pre-estimate Nawaz and Shah's combination, having in mind, that they're proven wicket-takers, but in the odds compilation have to incorporate the different skills in terms of Economy Rate for them. Whether Khan's good E/R ratio performance will be worsened, if he strives for some wickets today?
- Probability scenarios whether Rizwan will be forced to change his balanced game and to attack heavier if the duo Zaman-Azam struggled today?
And many, many more.
My decision, based on the model outputs, is to make more predefined positions in in-play mode, than in the pre-match market.

It's very pity that the Caribbean Premier League clash between Barbados Royals and Saint Lucia Kings is goin' to start at the same time as the Asia T20 Cup clash India vs Pakistan. More screens to monitor all the matches are needed, and heavier on-the-fly evaluations and market decisions… Not to mention soccer at the same time...

Asia Cup T20. India vs Sri Lanka now.
Having in mind, that India entered the Death Overs stage with an average Run Rate for their top-class but with 6 wickets in hand, their batting attack till the 20th Over wasn't good, only 38 runs and finished with 173 runs for 8 wickets. I remembered the 2018 Tri-series tournament, 1st match when India scored 174 and later Sri Lanka won easily by 5 wickets.
Now the odds range is similar to the initial pre-match odds. I personally will build my further positions, having in mind the performance of the Mendis-Nissanka duo, and will wait for the support of the Gunathilaka. The other factors for my market positions will be Kumar and all the Indian bowling dept's behavior.

First T20 International, England Ladies vs India Ladies now at Chester-le-Street.
Due to the absence of Taniya Bhatia as Wicketkeeper and Jemimah Rodrigues from the batting line-up, a more precise analysis of the opening odds is omitted. My approach today will be mainly to observe both teams' tactics and on-pitch decisions on the fly. There won't be market positions today. That way I will accumulate some data and impressions, and prepare my business plan for the second T20 on the 13th in Derby.
Your opinions and approaches about that T20 International series?

Second T20 International, England Ladies vs India Ladies will start soon in Derby.
Due to the wet pitch and some experimentation with the starting line-up, the first T20 match a few days ago was slightly experimental for Team India. Today the classic team (Mandhana, Rodrigues, Kaur, etc) won't be selected to start, therefore I think the absence of Mithali Raj can't be compensated to a greater extent. The previous game at Chester-le-Street without Rodrigues was an epic failure for India!

Some market positions before the match are possible according to the preliminary analysis. I mean slightly overestimated England's winning chance was offered by the agencies.
My points for further ins/outs in live play markets are mainly based on:
- Will England achieve at least a range of 140-150 runs;
- Will the Mandhana - Kaur - Verma trio score high in the Powerplay stage; Again, no Rodrigues today!
- Ghosh again was selected as a WK, her quick reactions need to be reassessed quickly in England's first strikes; some logical increase in odds if Ghosh's communication and reaction are not so in sync with the fielders;
- If Sharma starts higher in the batting order today, her stability in the batting position in terms of long presence before removal i.e. the instant judgment of whether she can finish as Dhoni qualitatively by the 20th Over, and her ability to control the current state (the sub-cases here are almost endless and each case must be classified on its own).

So, days before the T20 World Cup tournament, we now spot the final of the Caribbean T20 CPL now.

CPL 2022 is almost history, I mean the monstrous dominance of the Barbados Royals team so far. This team was the weakest bottom fish last year... Their opponent in today's final, the Jamaica Tallawahs team, had placed second to last the previous year.
Some pre-selected Stats in CPL 2022 have been reset and today only basic and viable stats in my view will be used to support the trading plan. For example, some safety margins have been introduced into the model, following justification from the preliminary analysis, regarding the CPL 2022 dominance of the Royals team, and the difficult playoff ranking for the Tallawahs team, seen so far.

To my surprise, the time to lock in the profit before the match (trading/hedging activities) was shorter than expected.
Some key milestones for me in pre-analysis and for trading later in live mode. Without a doubt, the weakest team in the past is now the most balanced and strong team. Personally, at the Powerplay stage and further, my model will analyze on the fly mostly Rahkeem Cornwall (arguably his best season yet) and his battle against two or three top Tallawahs' bowlers. These interactions will be evaluated very quickly and some entry/exit triggers are expected.
Second, the role of the field and the influence of Jason Holder today.
Third, the assessment of the end of bowling at the Dead Overs stage. Especially the performance of the Royals team here. This would decide the match and the title if the case in Tallawahs' Dead Over batting stage is very similar to the so-called Dead Heat case of horse racing. And many, many other factors and data, of course.
Let's see what happens.

ICC T20 World Cup will produce the next episode of el Superclásico India vs Pakistan cricket today. That Cricket event is of the rank of soccer match Brasil vs Argentina, but in that kind of sport, the money in the markets is much more. It just makes it more likely that some agencies will offer sharp odds (which doesn't happen often) and smaller margins. And very liquid positions, of course. You can always opt in and cash out of the positions.

For those who have regular positions in the Cricket markets, an adequate business plan is necessary before the game: pre-match positions, in-game trading, money management, risk management, pre-match odds compilation and value search, in-game odds compilation, detailed plan in terms of probabilities of events A, B...Y, Z and the most reasonable actions in the market if those events happen and many, many more.

Some milestones in the pre-analysis were useful for calculating the initial odds before the match and they also helped to build a vision of the most likely gaming behavior on the pitch. Among these were:

- Tons of players' and teams' Stats are available on the Internet. But only carefully selected ones and evaluated through the individual prism of the observer's expertise in this game built the true usability of the data in my view. In this case, the statistics and data for the most likely line-ups were used.
Pros: The IPL domestic championship was televised and every Indian top-notch player and his abilities are well known. So the cold Stats are slightly adjusted when players are evaluated directly. Pakistani famous players are seen on TV and analyzed when performed in the PSL and overseas. For example, in the CPL T20, and also in England. That also helped to adjust some data.
Cons: Indian players under BCCI contracts are often not allowed to play abroad. This introduced some noise into the assessment… Lack of enough videos from the various domestic Championships in Pakistan, except PSL.

- The previous stability in the Indian team when they were under the captaincy of MS Dhoni is over. This is often overlooked by oddsmakers at some very specific stages of matches. They are a super classy team as usual, but sometimes they also increase the number of losses due to unexpected mistakes.
The T20 matches against South Africa in October, against the Aussies in September and most of their games in the Asia Cup T20 tournament have been chosen for analysis and decomposed for their recent form assessment. Rohit Sharma's tactics as a captain tend to increase stability, but when the team is not doing well in a given match, it is quite clear in the early stages of the performance of both departments - the batters and the bowlers. The recalculations of the live odds by my side are not the same as under MS Dhoni's era.

- For the initial assessment of the Pakistan team, the perfect case was the breakdown of the recent PAK series against England, plus the CPL T20 tournament's performance of some players. And of course, the Tri-series tournament against New Zealand and Bangladesh.
The bowling department's tactics have been improving recently and one of their big problems in the past, the usual and regular batting collapse, has been largely overcome, but some major inconsistencies are possible in the batting department when they are under pressure. The probabilities of this depend on the particular field case.

- Very often when these teams are involved, the odds are set by the odds makers in a very predictable way. India's pre-match odds are usually in the X1...Xn range, while Pakistan is priced in the Y1...Yn pre-match range, regardless of some important pre-clash facts. For example, the last two meetings between these teams in August and September – Asia T20 Cup. In my view, the circumstances of these two matches were very different and some calculated risk was tolerable. Some previous games over the years were similarly priced, and sometimes preliminary analysis suggested otherwise. Today's match is again offered by the agencies at very similar pre-match odds.

-Last but not least - there is a possibility of a shortened match due to bad weather, so the tactical approach of the teams in case of reduced Overs may be different, therefore the current DLS score plus the tactical orders of the teams should be taken into account for the odds calculations in live mode.

And slightly off-topic, some aspects of the initial odds range and later pre-match fluctuations regarding The Aussies vs The Kiwis were strange as the odds graph curve. I don't think Pinnacle and others will make that mistake again. And now see the differences in the curve related to Ind vs Pak match.

The final match of the Caribbean Super 50 Cup is in progress now.

Even if you don't prefer to open a lot of positions here, you can still enjoy their 8-hour show from the pitch in North Sound.

There is no doubt that the Trinidad and Tobago team is among the top three in this tournament, but I have some reservations about the implied odds published by some agencies.

They showed some of their team's weaknesses in the matches against the Guyana team (a three-run loss, 266:269, followed by an easy six-wicket win a week later, 183:182, with about 15 overs to spare).
The Guyana team is also in the top three teams here but they are just not as consistent in some of the games. In my opinion, this is due to their unnecessarily complicated mix of different coaching tactics for this selection of players.
Trinidad and Tobago's performance wasn't good vs Guyana's. It's not just the defeat but some odd elements were noticed: While Guyana scored their maximum runs scored for this match in my opinion, while losing 9 batsmen (5.38 R/R), Sunil Narine's power as a bowler wasn't maximized, I mean that at 1.7 E/R for him, Guyana's runs scored are too many. In addition, the achieved E/R for other members of the bowling department such as Phillip, Seales, and co was terrible. Later in the chase, the T@T team was too slow.

In their second game a few days later, they showed other new weaknesses despite their easy win.

What about having a player like Evin Lewis and his current role in the team?

T@T's semi-final against Barbados was easy for them. Nothing new here was useful for the analysis.

In the second semi-final, Jamaica's hard-fought victory against Guyana was very helpful for game watchers to complete their last missing elements for the final. Jamaica is at the same top level as Guyana but Smith's 5 wickets were the most important in reaching the final. Powell's hundred + runs too.
And countless other things in the tournament analysis also helped build the trading plan for the final.

Based on the aforementioned logic and other things, for the final, the most suitable plan includes trading positions based on the current tactics and behavior of some key players, such as Jangoo-Pooran-Narine and Smith-Powell-King. I don't really know if Walton or King will be preferred by the coach for a specific role. Let's see.

In short, the initially published odds weren't acceptable to me and complex trading based on some predetermined triggers is most acceptable today. As I recall, the Unibet agency also had a different view. At some early moments, they offered almost equal pre-match odds minus their margins (something like 1.9 - 1.9). Later they changed those odds.

It should be noted that Jamaica's bowling department produced a steady trend of movement in the odds: in his two overs played, J. Royals took two wickets, plus that of Powell for 4 Ov. J. Merchant restricted the T@T batsmen via his 2.29 E/R but no wicket was taken for him. And now D. Bulli's wicket taken has finally caused Evens in the odds markets.
Awaiting very close several exit market points, caused by the T@T batsmen's behavior, maybe in the next 10 Overs or something. That's the leading probability now.

The predefined value in live mode for the Jamaica team just disappeared. N. Pooran was dismissed by Smith much earlier than expected. Now you have to process the probability of T@T batting acceleration with no extra damage to them.

I don't think much market intervention is sensible now as Trinidad and Tobago's R/R is around 4 at the moment. On the other hand, the current price corridor for the odds in favor of Jamaica provides a safe profit lock, if you want that.

Three fours and a six in the last few overs sparked an R/R for T@T of around 4.3 and a reversal of odds which continued to Gordon's wicket when another reversal of odds occurred. From here, until the end of the T@T batting portion of the match, every potential position should be considered twice, except that you accept the higher level of risk for reasonable reasons.

T@T vs Jamaica Super50 Final, the second part of the game is running now.

There were early signs of some broken things for the pre-match favorites, but even in-depth pre-match analysis didn't anticipate such a collapse for the bookies' favorite team Trinidad and Tobago. If you are not so deep into the intricacies of the game of cricket, you better get out of your positions. In that kind of game, everything is possible.

So now in the batting part of Jamaica, it is very important to see the performance mainly of Rovman Powell. And also the supporting core of players selected by the coaching staff, as well as the starting tactics. I doubt whether McCarthy or Walton will attack hard at some initial and mid-stage, risking some valuable points needed late in the game.

In the bowling part for the T@T team, I suspect more aggressive and riskier tactics before the first half of the game, aiming to limit Jamaica's target score. Needless to say, the tactics and approach of Narine and co will decide the match.

Usually, the tournament NRR is not a useful variable in the final match, but the much larger NRR for the pre-match Favorite Trinidad and Tobago (1.021), and the much smaller NRR for the current in-play Favorite Jamaica (0.177) is important at some point in the in-game analysis from now on. I mean how and when were these NRRs achieved and what tactics were applied? Some hints may appear.

So the leading 3 or 4 probabilities from now on were built based on dozens of things, let's see what happens over the next few hours.

So, The Scorpions need over 4 and under 5 RRR, priced around 1.3 right now. Some smaller Fibonacci retracements are likely.