I use 2 valuebet alerts, and recently i am looking for new markets (e-sports), that my alerts, dont look, to despiste the bookmakers, i bet with 365 odds.
My strateg, was look for pinnacle odds, and assume that was the Sharp odds, and bet in 365, if find some value.
I try to make a math formula, to compair the odds, and find the ev, but my formula, doesnot match with the alerts (dont know where i am wrong), the alerts are rebel and trademate.
like an exemple, gonna use a game that show in the alert...
The game is a 2 way outcome, tha te odds in pinnacle are 2.72(outcome1) x 1.409 (outcome2), and the outcome 1 in 365 is 3.20, the alerts shows a value of 5.27%
In my formula, i put the 2 outcomes of pinnacle, to find the rake of the pinny, with the rake (7,18%), i can find the fair odds, and the probability, (2.9304 and 34,12%).
And with this probability i can multiply with the 365 odds, that is 3.20 x 0,3412 = 1,09184 = 9,184% EV+
9,1% is a big difference from 5,27%, so i dont know where is my error.
someone can help me with some explanation?
thanks, and sorry for my english
Formula to Find the exact EV
- kustef
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Re: Formula to Find the exact EV
Hi
see here:
https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets
on the right side of the panel click on: "True odds" and your browser will automaticly download excel file..
There you have 4 methods of how to calculate true odds from bookmaker odds.
For more info about that methods read https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets and whole site
see here:
https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets
on the right side of the panel click on: "True odds" and your browser will automaticly download excel file..
There you have 4 methods of how to calculate true odds from bookmaker odds.
For more info about that methods read https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets and whole site