Arbusers

Arbusers i am  not much interested in stock markets but given the chance by this very thread i  have to say that i am very impressed  by the deep knowledge of greek situation  , greek history , and even greek mentality  you obviously possess!
The same goes for Lansky too who even knew the importance of number 1453 in Greek history!!!
Such knowledge can be possessed only from the Greek themselves (or at least neighboring nations) or very educated persons or  both!

Regards from a Greek or should i say Geia sas or maybe ...  Pozdrav

My analysis here looks good.
It  seems that the wave 2 that we are in, is a zig-zag one. The target remains the same, it is the zone 955-980. The epicenter might be around 964, but i will consider my objectives correct at 955 strictly.
The waves are unfolding day by day, and I m narrowing my scenarios for Greece only to 2. I will present them here in the future.

Arbusers wrote: To my eyes, the zone of 955-980 looks perfect.

My prediction was again correct about the Greek stock market. Today's close at 970.93
The scenarios for Greece are now very much limited. I will present them here during the weekend, if i find time.

First of all, i feel very happy with the success that i have in the Greek stock market. All of our analysis and results were very much correct and positive.

Today, i m presenting 2 scenarios for Greece.
I consider the 1st one as dominant and you can see waves unfolding under the 1st graph. According to this, wave 2 is about to finish very soon, if not finished already. The reason that i don't sound so sure about it, is the counting of micro-waves within the small c wave. They don't have a clear structure and therefore there are still question marks about the ending. I noticed several times, that when we stand very close to important turning points, we must not count waves till the last detail. These are points where other, more broaden criteria prevail. The destination for the next 5 set of waves will bring the Greek general index under 799, no matter what the counting is.

I m also presenting a 2nd scenario, that i don't believe in, and you can see it in the 2nd  graph. According to this, the big wave 4 didn't finish in 1052.83, where we see just the a while we are now running b and we expect c to finish higher than 1052.

The reason why i m compelled to mention this 2nd scenario is simple. The compile of the Greek indexes is so much distorted by the local authorities, that everything could happen. The heaviest stock is the one of 3E Coca Cola. This is a company listed in LSE. It is a multinational company and not a Greek one. The biggest share holder is a British citizen living in Lagos. The Greek authorities insist presenting this stock as a Greek one. On the other hand the biggest bank of Greece, NBG is not offering much to the indexes. Notice that this bank lost 98.86% of its value since the beginning of the Greek Odyssey. In case that you didn't get it, it is 99 percent. Believe it or not, i estimate that the real value of the Greek general index is around 150, and not 900, if i calculate it with the gravity of stocks before 2009. An other Greek paradox, that shows how much everything is distorted in Greece.

incredible performance.........!!!!!!!

Today's performance leaves no space for scenario 1 that is now dead.
I m adopting the scenario 2 as in my latest post. I will come back with it with a new counting when i have time.
I must remind. A close above 1453-1458 is definetely a bull market.

My position in the Greek market is ''out'' and i believe that those who will act in impulse will end in tears.

Against my prodiction and analysis, the Greek stock market jumped above the 1052 wave. I detected 1052 as a very important line back in October 2012. The latest developments are forcing me to re-examine the situation and count the waves again.
The new dominant scenario shows that the 1052 is the A wave of the big wave 4. The 799 low of April the 8th is wave B, and now we are running wave C.
The typical target of this wave C that will flag the end of big wave 4 is the zome of 1381-1411. Let me remind you that a close above 1453-1458 indicates a new bull market.
Investors/gamblers will be puzzled and will have to take important decisions when/if the index goes near 1381-1458. This will be the decison point. For more, take  look in the attach graph.

I want to stress something else. I read in the newswires today, that the new stocks publiced from banks will count only as 15% of their quantity when calculating the general index. Already, banks keep a portion of 15% in the general index, so an extra 85% cut will lower their gravity to 2-3%. Greek banks should participate in the compilation of the general index with a percentage of 30-40% following the example of the rest of the planet.
I also posted before that a company listed in the LSE, Coca Cola 3E has a gravity of 22% in the general index. This stock is also exchanged in the Greek stock market. If you take a look at the volumes, you can understand that you can manipulate the Greek stock market with a volume of 150.000 daily. Can you believe this? You can do whatever you want with this index, just 150.000 euros.

To sum up. The Greek general index is destorted. Unfortunately, Elliott and Fibonacci would never imagine such a situation, when logic is replaced by deception.

Dear friend,
Please check my calculations if i am correct and what chances do you give on its "prediction"

Wave 1: 476->1052=576
Wave 2:1052->799=253
Wave 3: a)+61,8% of wave 1=1154
              b)+100%  of wave 1=1375
              c)+138,2% of wave 1=1595
              d)+200% of wave 1 = 1951
              e)+261,8% oc wave 1 = 2306

Hi m02762,
Wave 3 must not be the shorter one, so therefore wave 3 cant be 0.618, leaving 1154 outside.
The 100% is valid when wave 3 is equal to wave 1, so yes this is correct.
The 138.2 analogy is a very rare one.
It seems that you forget the 161.8% analogy which is the most important in waves 3.
There is no 200% analogy in Elliot wave thoery of wave 3.
The counting that you present is showing clearly a new bull market. According to the EWT, the bull mrket will be valid if and only if the ASE goes above 1458 strongly.
Really, what makes you so positive about the ASE?

Thanks for your reply,
Yes i forgot to write the 161,8% which is very common as 3rd wave.
You wrote:
<<Really, what makes you so positive about the ASE?>>

My answer is Manipulation.....

I am not so positive, but i believe that Greece must take a breath after 5 years.
We know it, they also know that and further more is the perfect trap to collect all the remaining money from the market.

They will false raise the index and the banks stocks.... and at the correct time they will give us the final shoot
knocking us out.... 

Reading again those last posts, i see that we both forget of the 123.8 and 223.8% levels, whic are also important for wave 3.
Indeed, the manipulation seen in the ASE is something unheard. It is not the mood that mass media is trying to build for Greece, it is the compilation of the indexes. In reality, they change the compilation every 5-6 days, kicking out stocks, bringing in new stocks, reducing % etc. This is unbelievable.
So if we are talking about this kind of breath, then OK, we agree. This is the end of a supercycle. When supercycles are closing, the length of the waves must be bigger, so dont expect a real breath here.
I dont know what you mean when saying ''Knock out'' and also about the perfect trap.
There is one trap that i see in the near future.
There are rumours saying that there will be a new haircut after the German Elections. The Greek minister of finance stated that the public sector will accept a haircut. Personally, i dont see why the Europeans will accept this? How will they present is to the parliament of Slovakia, Slovenia, Holland, even Italy and Spain? How?
There is no possibility that they will accept it.
This leaves no space for potential ''victims''. Who will be the victim?
I see only 2-3 easy targets:
1. The bank depositors.
2. The bond holders (that accepted already 1 haircut)
3. The pension funds.
These will be the victims.
The amount that they are looking is something between 60 and 80 bn euros.
If we can say that pensino funds and bond holders will be able to participate with 20 bn euros, and this is a roof, then there are 40 to 60 bn euros that will be asked from depositors. The total amount of deposits in Greece is 160bn. Now you know the percentage of the haircut.
I m afraid i will be right.
This will happen between the German election and the end of the year, before Greece gets the EUR presedency, or, after June 2014 when Greek presedency is finished and after Greek and European elections of May/June 2014. Both choices have possibilities.

I would like to remind you of my May 11th post and especialy the graph of that day, where i wrote that the gup of 960 should be filled.

I m watching the General Index and will come back with a new counting when there is an end on that clif.

It seems that some very powerfull people are reading me here. After my last posts, the composite of the general Index changed. The CocaCola 3E fiasco stopped. Banks are now in a more rational level.

I would also like to remind you of the video that i uploaded on May the 11th under the title ''Dream is collapsing'', not to mention the other video ''time'' that now is deleted.

There is a new Yalta going on and you can smell it in the air.
Threre is no Grecovery, no success story, no bs like that. Putin stated clearly that Greece will have the fait of Cyprus and judging from his other words i believe he was saying about deposits confiscation.
Gazprom decided to stay away from the Greek companies and our fellow Greeks you should thank Vladimir for this.
If Gazprom buys the naural gas companies of Greece, then Azerbaijan will be a hostage of Russia. In that case, the US should shuffle the cards in a very violent way. I m not sure if Greece could handle it.
The violent way is now postponed, looking for a new justification.

Did the state-run TV and radio in Greece just all of a sudden go off the air? The article off the Reuter's newswire I just read said the plug got pulled because it was a "haven of waste". Things have to be getting bad. Speaking of which I wonder what will go down in Turkey; if some cabal of sacked generals and disgruntled army officers uneasy with the creeping theocracy of the ruling party will stage a coup like they did in the past.

Hello my friend, did you count up the waves?

m02762 wrote: Hello my friend, did you count up the waves?

This is taken from a very good Greek analyst that i follow.



Wave C is not finished yet, so there is still some up movement to see. The end of wave C will be the end of wave 4 also. 4th waves are the trickiest of them all.
A strong closing above 1458 will indicate a new bull market. I dont think we will see this 1458 for some decades.