Arbusers

The English Championship, Leeds vs Leicester at the moment, very quality game by that League's standards.

The best home team vs the best away team statistically so far, the very intense game from the very beginning.
I remembered the old Leeds team under Marcelo Bielsa at home - almost perfect attacking department and good defensive dept, conceding only a handful of dangers in front of their goalkeeper at home.
Apparently, both teams today rely on the quality of passing, but in the first half, Leicester were far better in winning the first-ball-fight and securing safe control of the ball in all the phases of the game.
Also, I don't remember Bielsa practicing that style of own defenders' placement as today's Leeds. Faes scored his goal and the three defenders on his left weren't close to securing the goalkeeper. In addition, I don't remember zero shooting in target for Bielsa's Leeds at home and away (as in today's match for circa 65 gaming minutes so far).

Addendum - first home shot on target - 67th minute, caught by the Leicester goalkeeper.

The gaming interval between {80th and 94th minute} reminded me of the spirit of the older Leeds.

EuroLeague Basketball,
Bayern München vs Crvena Zvezda Belgrade, second quarter,
I don't get the impression that the inventive tactician Sfairopoulos used the maximum of Nemanja Nedović considering the linearity and predictability of Pablo Laso over the years. The big chance of further developments of those 9 points advantage for Crvena Zvezda during the first quarter is gone too easy.

Those colleagues who model the various types of markets are very familiar with Statistical Distribution theories.

That's why I'm impressed when the cases that happened are outside two or three Sigmas (i.e. drawn outside 95% and 99.8% of the Statistical Curve Distribution respectively).
For example, two very rare facts happened minutes ago in Valencia against Real Madrid (La Liga Soccer):
ZERO corners until the 90th minute! NULL!
However, four happened in the next 9 minutes as follows:
1st - 90th minute, Valencia;
2nd - 96th min, Real;
3rd - 97th minute, Valencia;
4th - 99th min, Real;

What about the published pre-match "corners" lines and odds from the agencies?

Valencia - Real Madrid, what a game in terms of Tactics, Sporting Quality, Statistical Distribution and so forth!

Addendum:
And don't forget, of course, to watch the hidden power of Luka Modrić!

EPL, B'mouth v Luton Town F.C. finished minutes ago,
I think we've seen a series of extremely rare cases all at once. Not just a 0:3 to 4:3 twist, but a lot of things below the surface.
Luton Town that season 2023/24 is a pioneer in some fields.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 21, 2024 5:20 pm

Will we see Sven-Göran Eriksson as a Liverpool manager against the Ajax Legends on March 23rd?

thisisanfield.com/2024/01/jurgen-klopp-invites-sven-goran-eriksson-to-be-liverpool-manager-for-a-day/

Liverpool Legends vs Ajax Legends has finished a few hours ago,

The ancient idea of Humanity's connection and the greatness of generosity and great respect for elder Heroes is still alive!!!
Even in contemporary cruel times, when we are beholders of senseless aggressive wars and endless senseless tensions, Jurgen Klopp and the Liverpool Staff provided a worthy fulfillment of the childhood dream of an old and very sick Hero!

What a humanitarian gesture to Mr. Sven-Goran Eriksson!!!

Thanks, Liverpool!!!

Thank you for all, Mr. Eriksson!!!



thisisanfield.com/2024/03/x-best-photos-as-sven-goran-eriksson-liverpool-xxx/


youtube.com/watch?v=Yf1aaDFK6V0

Watched the highlights, that was a very emotional event, congrats Liverpool

Ukrainian Premier League, Dynamo Kyiv vs Zhytomyr now,

That posting is not about the Soccer, it's about the Heroic Survival and Dignified Life.
Now I'm watching the game and the home team provides almost all non-war conditions (except permission to attend due to security reasons). There is lavish play on the pitch, plenty of pitchside adverts and even former coaching legend Mircea Lucescu is there to support the game and the players. All these players live in the conditions of war, but the idea of sports is the idea of humanity in the end...
We all hope the war ends soon!
It's not the most important thing today, but some of the most famous Asian and Caribbean Minotaurs are providing excellent odds in the Asian Handicap markets here…

Again, we all hope that nonsense war ends soon!

Serie A, Atalanta vs. Roma finished 2:1 a few minutes ago. Old fox Gasperini survived the Wolves' late storm as expected and in doing so De Rossi missed out on becoming the second Roma manager to go unbeaten in the first eight away games of his tenure, if I'm not mistaken.

I'm wondering about:
- Why exactly is Abraham so ineffectively used as a player nowadays compared to Roma under Mourinho's management?
- What would modern-day Roma look like if hypothetically Carlo Mazzone was in charge of the team these days? I think Chris Smalling wouldn't have been on the bench at all and the team would have been built based on his defensive ability, and also based on Abraham's offensive one.
- In general, I try to imagine the hypothetical evolution of Roma over the years and later years based on the fact that the owners historically are not willing to invest at the level of spending of Inter & Juventus but aiming for (almost) maximum targets. So, the highly economic and efficiency in his incoming transfers Mazzone achieved two consecutive fifth places in Serie A, and his contract wasn't prolonged. Why? I think now he would be better than Mourinho at a much lower spending cost for transfers.
Last but not least, the hypothetical contemporary Gasperini vs. Mazzone tactical battle would be food for thought. I mean the contemporary old matured Gasperini, not those in Internazionale in 2011. Also, Mazzone in his last season led Livorno into Top 6 in Serie A. Where exactly is the Livorno Calcio team now?

The old fox Gasperini, The Genius.

Even though he's Italian, his teams have historically NEVER played the old-fashioned, successful endless versions of "Catenaccio" tactics games against the favorites (for example, Rehhagel in Greece or Trapattoni in Benfica).
Also, technically speaking, his teams are among the fastest in the game, compared to teams of similar quality and similar funds invested in them - even on the pitch vs the favorites.

So I was wondering how exactly Gasperini will build his defensive department today against Frimpong & Bayer'04 (unbeaten before today) and run the usual quite heavy attacks at lower risk ratios, given that Alonso's Mind is much more a good tactical opponent than the usual opponents Atalanta have the luxury of playing against, alternating heavy attacks with comfortably slowing down the pace when needed. Here against the Leverkusen team, that's impossible.
Well, the Italian penalty area was as usual saturated with careful defenders (Frimpong had no chance because of this), but Gian Piero Gasperini ordered an extremely strong press and endless heavy attacks in Atalanta's possession, taking the risk of early exhaustion of physical forces within a hypothetical negative current score at some moment later in the runtime (remember the slowing the initial pace vs Bayer is suicidal at the end, AS Roma players know that very well). The first half - a perfectly done task.

In the second half, with the luxury of a comfortable lead against Leverkusen, Gasperini put the brakes on the very heavy and physically draining attacks and went into a pseudo-economical pace, baiting the opposition for a third goal later on.

I wonder what the hypothetical situation would have been if the initial Atalanta press venture had failed - what would be the most hypothetical scenarios that would eventually happen? Extra times?

All in all, a job perfectly done, with a very high rate of tactical risk taken against the slightly chaotic unbeaten opposition in the 2023/24 season before the match today.

The ATP Tokyo cash-in derby Marin Čilić vs Kei Nishikori has just ended,

Does the Time Machine Exist? Definitely yes.
Today both the Players performed similarly to Brisbane 2014.

What a game, what a control over the game, taking in mind the age factor, what a game was it today. Congrats to both the Players...

I miss derbies such as Nadal vs Đoković, Nadal vs Federer, Federer vs Đoković (what a Wimbledon 2019 Final was it!!!), Manuela Maleeva vs Martina Navratilova, Andre Agassi vs Pete Sampras...

In terms of very different kinds of Sports, do you recall Senna vs Prost, Netherlands (under Rinus Michels) vs Ukraine, masqueraded as the USSR (under the Legendary Sensei Valeriy Lobanovskyi), Arrigo Sacchi vs the World, Otto Rehhagel vs Giovanni Trapattoni, Michael the "Air" Jordan vs Dražen Petrović and so on...

Thank you all for the memories.

Addendum: What a Respect
bbc.com/sport/football/67659564

Belgium Jupiler Pro, Antwerp vs Beerschot,
What a great pre-calculated value was offered pre-match for the Corner markets, especially for Ov. 9.5. Not to mention the value (calculated live) at additional Corner markets (in-play) that has even appeared in some sharp agencies.
The Corners came today one by one very close to the laboratory-simulated Poisson process, what a beauty to catch them, especially in the second half!
And the circumstances forced the match to be stopped a few minutes ago, at a temporary score of 10:2 (Corners), what an irony.

In case anyone was expecting Frankie Dettori's big comeback from injury, here's news: R8 Grade 2 Miss Grillo, initially scheduled within the next minutes at Belmont at the Big A is canceled due to rain, what a pity, indeed...
Hope to see the legendary veteran Jockey & May Day Ready on October 6th…

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 29, 2024 2:28 pm

Belgium Jupiler Pro, Antwerp vs Beerschot,
What a great pre-calculated value was offered pre-match for the Corner markets, especially for Ov. 9.5. Not to mention the value (calculated live) at additional Corner markets (in-play) that has even appeared in some sharp agencies.
The Corners came today one by one very close to the laboratory-simulated Poisson process, what a beauty to catch them, especially in the second half!
And the circumstances forced the match to be stopped a few minutes ago, at a temporary score of 10:2 (Corners), what an irony.

not sure about it. average corners between them are around 9 and odds were slightly over 2. is this really profitable long term

ray mansi wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 30, 2024 2:22 pm

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 29, 2024 2:28 pm

Belgium Jupiler Pro, Antwerp vs Beerschot,
What a great pre-calculated value was offered pre-match for the Corner markets, especially for Ov. 9.5. Not to mention the value (calculated live) at additional Corner markets (in-play) that has even appeared in some sharp agencies.
The Corners came today one by one very close to the laboratory-simulated Poisson process, what a beauty to catch them, especially in the second half!
And the circumstances forced the match to be stopped a few minutes ago, at a temporary score of 10:2 (Corners), what an irony.

not sure about it. average corners between them are around 9 and odds were slightly over 2. is this really profitable long term

Hiya,
I just have my own opinion on the value of real odds pre-match and later when the market switches into in-play mode: (in decimal format: 100 divided by my calculated probabilities) vs. those offered specifically for that pre-selected by me match (criteria covered) and some soft agencies, usually in some cases Betano/365 etc, and even some more sharp agencies, usually BookMaker/Sing /SBO etc, etc, sometimes offers interesting Soccer odds exceeding my criteria.

Of course, you're right, my Models are tuned up intentionally for long-term results, keeping the drawdown-related parameters in control via Risk-Management & Heuristics.
Kelly Criterion is being honest with you about the geometric advantage in the very long run, not in the short.
But let's say that medium-term success is also conditionally possible with additional restrictive criteria. I am working in my testing lab on that hypothesis.