Arbusers

Bubbles wrote: "The reason for the small stakes is not because of the risk. I am confident in what I am doing. Have 3 years data and about 4500 bets at average odds of less than 2/1 showing a ROI of about 50%! The small stakes are to stay under the radar of the softbooks and not get restricted!"

If you have a clear edge and are confident of it why not take the max stake (liquiditywise and bankrollwise) and trade out before the start of a race? This way you maximise your profit and get rid of all the hassle with bookies at the same time. I know, PC but considering your edge it might be worth chewing over

I'm not betting on the exchanges, I'm betting with the bookies, just using the exchange market for information. When I look at the market the day before the liquidity on the exchange is pants! To get the ROI I am achieving I'm using multiples to gear up my 6% advantage I would get if trading it, to over 50% but at a cost of variance. (giving my secrets away now) Because I get such a good return I can keep the stakes low and not trigger the restriction algorithms. I have a theory that the algorithms don't even look at the EV of multiple bets. They are looking for arbers and arbers don't bet using multiples do they When I have had trouble with restrictions its when I have been betting singles with a nice advantage.

"When I look at the market the day before the liquidity on the exchange is pants!"

That's what my initial point about you mentioning "small stakes" was aimed at

And you're right, you give away too much

Hello dejected, you are most welcome! Especially with such interesting posts and positive attitude

As far as I've observed, some bookies do limit for hitting their sharp or out of market lines (EV+), but I believe some others seem to limit by overall profit, i.e., they let you play until you've reached a certain profit that tells them you'll continue beating them... that's my theory, but perhaps it just takes them time to notice what you're doing, it certainly is hard to tell what they do sometimes

Anyway, we'll discuss this somewhere else. Welcome!

barbero wrote: Hello dejected, you are most welcome! Especially with such interesting posts and positive attitude

As far as I've observed, some bookies do limit for hitting their sharp or out of market lines (EV+), but I believe some others seem to limit by overall profit, i.e., they let you play until you've reached a certain profit that tells them you'll continue beating them... that's my theory, but perhaps it just takes them time to notice what you're doing, it certainly is hard to tell what they do sometimes

Anyway, we'll discuss this somewhere else. Welcome!

I do think they have a win limit as well that gets your account looked at, and that limit varies quite considerable by bookie. If you win over so much, they perform a manual review to see if you are doing anything that their algorithms are missing. But I think that most accounts are restricted automatically because of Early price advantage. i.e. comparing the price you took with the closing line, or for horse racing BSP.

If you are restricted after only a few bets it is more likely they think it is a duplicate / third party account rather than because of price advantage which takes a bit longer to determine.

Indeed, couldn't have put it better. I agree 100%. And then again, it's only assumptions we can make (and will always be unless we get inside information), but my experience takes me to that conclusion too.

barbero wrote: Indeed, couldn't have put it better. I agree 100%. And then again, it's only assumptions we can make (and will always be unless we get inside information), but my experience takes me to that conclusion too.

I'm sure there are plenty of guys from the likes of openbet reading this forum who would love to tell us how it really works 

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