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How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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arb12
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How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:18 pm

Brand new topic. Let's discuss various cases you've met in your practice :)
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:26 pm

Minutes ago finished Big Bash Aussie match - Stars vs Strikers. In order to give a try to find some value at the Power Surge stage in that event, I've supposed that in the bottom fishes derby there is some likelihood for some underperformance in that stage, unlike top teams. When Melbourne was fighting for BashBoost Bonus and PowerSurge was in effect in 15th over, noticed that Rashid Khan was the first bowler (perfect ECON statistics for him usually) and some value for Stars underperforming arose in PSurge stage. Bear in mind, required RR was almost touched for Stars, with 6 wickets in hand before that stage, and the chase seemed easy. Melbourne somehow achieved only 9 in PS. The odds graph was mad, total in Middle, PSurge and Death overs there were some similarities to many Fibo retracements slope up and down.
Many more statistics data must be generated by the matches upon the new rules in BBL before some general conclusions to be produced.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:01 pm

i think you could summarise this essay with 'you must know your sport down to the finest art'. we all know rashid khan is the best, but what is the correct odds?
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:13 pm

Years spent in the business and experience earned impossible to be shared for a blink. Try to read again and rethink, maybe some ideas exist.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:19 pm

yes years spent writing these million word essays with no purpose, gambling is simple, you need to get the value
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:47 am

steve smith wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:19 pm
yes years spent writing these million word essays with no purpose, gambling is simple, you need to get the value
The question is how do you find the value, and arb12's posts are exactly about this
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:18 pm

Right now, minutes after 3:13 during the third quarter, every entry in Olympiacos' favor has double value vs Crvena Zvezda.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:47 pm

arb12 wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:18 pm
Right now, minutes after 3:13 during the third quarter, every entry in Olympiacos' favor has double value vs Crvena Zvezda.
Recap: Straight wager Moneyline from the triggered point (somewhere in 3rd part, after 13pts or something scored for Zvezda, strong value by the model) - lost, Spread market (not triggered at all), Trading from the triggered point 3rd quarter - huge swings and tradings +1 leading to +7 or 8, to +1 several times (moderate to strong triggers by model). Wins. Overall the match - very small income due to underestimated circumstances.
Addendum: In the long run before that moment, similar straight entries at similar points gave me higher percent wins vs loses, that time - no. Further post-analysis on the data is needed tomorrow. Some tunings to the approach - also, due to new lessons. :)
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:29 pm

When it comes to Hellenic Basketball, for business purposes KAE Promitheas Patras is a small underestimated Jewel (very similar to Volos NFC in the soccer business). Several years now in the first tier.
A very specific thing for Promitheas is that when an entry point is generated, the signal very often is very clear, statistical noise is very low. For instance, several days ago vs Valencia Basket, there were published absurd odds, plus strong triggers in the Spaniard team's favor. Sometimes in domestic competitions, huge value was generated, often in KAE PP's favor.
Generally, if the Forex terminology may apply in terms of that business, short-time EMA and medium-term EMA for that basketball team are amongst ideal analytics tools at that moment.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Jan 30, 2022 1:48 pm

Very good Canucks Soccer National Team (despite doubtful domestic competition), but odds compilers remove the value lately on them. My signals appeared twice, vs Mexico team and vs the USA team some months ago, but due to uncompetitive odds restrained myself from participated-in in these events. The next several hours before the home match vs the US team I'm goin' to seek for desired odds. At this time, no success...
African Nations Cup of Soccer generally produced lower scoring performances, but very tough to participate in also, even in the quarter-finals stage.
Your point of view?
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:10 pm

Many Fibonacci-style retracements, just finished by buzzer-beater in Piraeus :) The risk was great, but manageable when the trading approach was adjusted. Lessons taught by Crvena Zvezda in Piraeus recently, helped to adjust that in the model. Riskier situations, lesser value to straight bet, and better to trade almost instantly when triggers appear.
Last edited by arb12 on Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:08 pm

Several hours to go, NBA Bucks@Suns, very good teams in almost perfect streak recently. Seems like the desired value ML and especially on the spread will not be achievable for straight positions. Let's see how the agencies will manage the lines. But trading is not affected at all.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Feb 15, 2022 7:51 pm

Deutscher basketball, several minutes to go, Ulm vs Braunschweig - WOW, after the earthquake in the first quarter, Kramer, Brown, Klasse, Sehnal managed to hold the lead so far. Starting odds above 4.5 for them everywhere. Pinnacle surprisingly overpriced the fake favorite Ratiopharm, pre-match odds were 1.2 something and above.
After the steady leading, no hedging operations are needed here.
Your opinions?
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Feb 15, 2022 8:20 pm

Chemnitz vs Bayern, I've also seen a big performance in the so-called underdog's favor, but regretfully had no reliable signals for some entry points, plus some unacceptable Risk/Reward ratios, these stopped me from participating in here and have missed the profits. In-dept post analysis is needed to evolve some things used by the model.

By the way, do you notice some increase in the variance lately in the NBA? And what's the case for the Milwaukee team lately? Statistical processing of the data can't generate a trend against the Bucks, but that's a fact in the later matches, in terms of the Moneyline, and the Spread. I'll diggin' in that also.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Wed Feb 16, 2022 7:41 am

I started seeing value to the odds for Aris FC from the Greek football league. The team started with -6 points and there is a series of bad and unlucky results that do not represent the real value of the team. The game against PAS is manifesting what I am saying. Aris being the best team in the game, but PAS got away with the three pointer.

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