Arbusers

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun May 19, 2024 10:59 pm

hexaflexa wrote: ↑

Sun May 19, 2024 10:32 pm

Lost all my season profits since march and ended whole season down in total.

How did that happen?

variance is beautiful thing i guess. My odds range is 3-30 (mainly between 3-5) here and there some between 2,5-3 aswel things can happen. Never in my years however its been constantly this bad and long but every season suprises somehow.

Could you create a graph and provide some more detailed stats? If possible.
I m sure people would love to discuss it as it is one of the favourites issues in this forum?

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun May 19, 2024 10:59 pm

hexaflexa wrote: ↑

Sun May 19, 2024 10:32 pm

Lost all my season profits since march and ended whole season down in total.

How did that happen?

Such things happen. It happened to me as well that I've been in the red for the last two months, something that has never happened to me before, and I've been betting for over 20 years. I only bet on horse racing, and I always place bets at higher odds than BSP, but sometimes probability fails... I've had quite a lot of second and third place finishers past two months. But everything will fall into place over time, so don t give up

By the way, a small but quite effective thing spotted so far when it comes to Olympiakos Basketball's matches so far (season 2023/24) is the good average of the wins in the O/U points markets and also in the Points Spread markets.
In my opinion, Željko Obradović's Partizan is performing the slowest Basketball pace on the pitch this season, but the second place belongs to Olympiakos, I don't know why.
When coach Bartzokas ordered a slow pace for a while in a number of games against teams not much higher class and not much lower class than Olympiakos and you pre-modeled the probability interval O/U and also the (-X, + Y) point spread, the probability of winning on a given point spread interval is >>51 % and also the probability of winning on the O/U market is quite good. I mean the Win-Loss Ratio is OK.
Fenerbahçe is the Olympiakos' opponent for the 3rd place in the Euroleague Basketball Final 2023/24, it is OK for that strategy, and also the domestic battles against PAO have been good so far, and also the hypothetical future Final against Panathinaikos in GBL A1 should qualify for similar strategy if these circumstances arise...

Euroleague final yesterday night, a game long expected.

The game had all the characteristics of a live betting paradise and my tactics would work perfectly fine judging in retrospect from the points difference. But I decided to enjoy the game with friends instead of betting on it. That was the right thing to do.

With the catharsis in Euroleague that took place this year, Panathinaikos was able to lift the trophy. Real Madrid, a superb legendary team has no need from outside factors. Every Eurolegue final leaves me with a question. What will happen next year. This is unique in the universe of basketball, as I never have this question after an NBA final.

I am coming back to the LuKa Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo comparison.

It has no importance to me if LuKa lifts the trophy this year or not. Giannis is fragile, as we have seen with his absence when his team needed him the most. Luca is always present. Given that LuKa is well positioned due to his youth, I believe that I can safely award him the title of the best NBA player.

Let me be harsh. LeBron must go. In the next all stars game there must be team Giannis and team LuKa. LeBron is here only because of his advertisement contracts and the agendas he can serve better than Luka.

If nothing bad happens to Luka, he will smash all NBA records and we will remember him (thankfully) at the same height like K.A Jabbar, Michael Jordan, and LB James.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri May 31, 2024 3:08 pm

I am coming back to the LuKa Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo comparison.

It has no importance to me if LuKa lifts the trophy this year or not. Giannis is fragile, as we have seen with his absence when his team needed him the most. Luca is always present. Given that LuKa is well positioned due to his youth, I believe that I can safely award him the title of the best NBA player.

Let me be harsh. LeBron must go. In the next all stars game there must be team Giannis and team LuKa. LeBron is here only because of his advertisement contracts and the agendas he can serve better than Luka.

If nothing bad happens to Luka, he will smash all NBA records and we will remember him (thankfully) at the same height like K.A Jabbar, Michael Jordan, and LB James.

That would be a very exciting time and I think the pure Joy of the game amongst Players would return as it was in the days of Michael Jordan and Dražen Petrović.
I remember when the corporate back-end was very supportive and useful (the "I Love This Game" NBA era), but the leading thing those days was the sheer Joy of the game. Nowadays, it's the exact opposite - you described it very well through LeBron's example.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon May 27, 2024 7:13 am

Euroleague final yesterday night, a game long expected.

...
With the catharsis in Euroleague that took place this year, Panathinaikos was able to lift the trophy. Real Madrid, a superb legendary team has no need from outside factors. Every Eurolegue final leaves me with a question. What will happen next year. This is unique in the universe of basketball, as I never have this question after an NBA final.

Some quick ideas for backtests and for future development of modelers' working ideas, given the huge success of the Greek teams this year.

I guess many sporting modelers are fascinated by the sporting achievements of that ancient European country and perhaps compare their own beta Projects, the real executed Models and their tune-ups, and their results so far vs the triggered forecasts/probabilities, considering:
- (1) - The UEFA Youth League 2023/24 Winner - Olympiakos;
- (2.1) - The EuroLeague Basketball 2023/24 Winner - Panathinaikos;
- (2.2) - Third place EuroLeague Basketball 2023/24 - Olympiakos;
- (3) - The Europa Conference League 2023/24 Winner - Olympiakos.

Let me share a few quick ideas in the pre-Alpha stage if someone is interested in digging into them (retrospective analyses only):
- Is it possible to build appropriate 20-year graphics for Greek sporting activities overall here? I mean digging into several axes, for example, 2004 - the Summer Olympics - the highest number of Olympic medals compared to previous recent Summer Olympic Games (if I'm not mistaken); 2004 - Otto Rehhagel's triumph in EURO 2004 (what a strange tournament was that one, I didn't think that any contemporary team was able to beat the ratio of high efficiency to the own low number of shots and possession of Italy under Dino Zoff, but Rehhagel's Greece overcame that), 2024 - the events (1), (2.1 & 2.2) and (3) mentioned above;
- Another possible axis - 2004 Olympics - host Nation, 2024 for the event (3) - AEK's ground hosted the final.
- Possibility for additional waves to be found or not on the Graphics - Maria Sakkari and Tsitsipas' achievements circa 2021 and 2022.
- Pure Basketball and nothing more: the fundamental observation and additional statistical analysis of some hidden dependencies for the Array and its elements describing the appearance of the Hellenic Teams in the EuroLeague Basketball's Championship-Decider final Match, de facto in last 30-year interval: {MASSIVE NULL,1994 OLY, 1995 OLY, 1996 PAO, 1997 OLY, 1998 AEK, 1999 NULL, 2000 PAO, 2001 PAO, 2002 PAO, 2003 till 2006 NULL, 2007 PAO, 2008 NULL, 2009 PAO, 2010 OLY, 2011 PAO, 2012 OLY, 2013 OLY, 2014 NULL, 2015 OLY, 2016 NULL, 2017 OLY, 2018 till 2022 NULL, 2023 OLY, 2024 PAO, 2025+ UNKNOWN}. Naturally, the submatrices, describing the main Array, could be described in many ways, including a graphical one.

Rationale: Building lots of well-chosen Time-Interval Graphics with very good fundamental rationale behind those ones. Once some cyclic processes are recognized (if the logical basis is OK), the rest is easy.
I personally use in my practice well-chosen, let's say 3, 5, 12, 15, 20, X, Y, Z,... and so on Time Units as additional graphical tools (if the Logic is behind them), and combine them with other analytical tools at my disposal. That helps me a lot in recognizing hypothetical future signals and their further analysis.

Let me share a bit of personal experience:
- (1) - Despite processing some data from that tournament, I'm not confident in modeling these markets at all, i.e. the lack of detailed information and personal impressions about the players/some coaches, and also the uncertain stable-timescale-performance projection (these teams are mostly U21 and players go from Youth teams to the First teams in a very quick time).
Overall, my data-poor Model tune-ups were pretty mediocre during the UEFA Youth Soccer tournament. After the tournament ended, some quick and very limited backtesting of Olympiakos' performance at UEFA Youth 2024 couldn't give me the answers to the modeling tasks I was looking for, for example, one of the most interesting tasks in these backtests here was not only the determination of the probability interval, but also the fundamental explanation of overcoming pre-match favorites by Olympiakos during almost the whole UEFA Youth tournament.
Overall not OK, my UEFA Youth Model settings failed overall.

- (2.1) & (2.2) - Before shaping some modeling tasks regarding the Panathinaikos 2023/24 EuroLeague (and also the GBL A1) season circa summer-autumn 2023, I was so impressed by the Owner Giannakopoulos' offensive for incoming transfers: Coach Ergin Ataman from Anadolu Efes, Ioannis Papapetrou & Mathias Lessort from Partizan Belgrade, Kostas Sloukas from Olympiakos etc. So while it was pretty clear that PAO would not finish 17th as they did in the 2022/23 season, determining the probability interval in the short, medium and long-term periods is not an easy task at all. That's why I break the main tasks into several subtasks. Two of the subtasks here were:
- Determining the building of a reliable Model vision of game performance on the pitch of a completely new Panathinaikos team under a completely new coach, based mainly on what has been seen before about team members and the coach;
- The probability of team evolution in the time / or probability of failure at some time;
And so forth.
Overall the Model was pretty OK, but I've conceded a few big errors during the season, for example, the pre-match triggered probabilities interval for the point spread in those two: Žalgiris vs PAO 80:68 and Maccabi Tel Aviv vs PAO 90:75 and others.

Before starting various modeling tasks regarding the Olympiakos 2023/24 EuroLeague season sometime in summer-autumn 2023, I had that fact in mind - Sasha Vezenkov & Kostas Sloukas leave Olympiakos (2nd in the EuroLeague 2022/23), but Coach Georgios Bartzokas stays on for next season. Therefore, modeling some forecasts for the performance of Olympiakos 2023/24 is not too difficult, but it is very challenging and predictable to some extent in terms of the probability interval in terms of short, medium and long-term periods during the 2023/24 season. Numbers of peaks during that season were caught by the Model (>> 51 %).
Overall the Model forecasts were pretty OK, but there were also lots of modeling errors. The errors' interval was mitigated to some level, keeping in mind Bartzokas' usual management methods.
By the way, after the very first game of the series Barcelona vs. Olympiakos 75:77, the Ratio of the probability of Olympiakos winning the series (three wins required from a maximum of five games) and going to the Final Four, to the risk accepted, was pretty OK compared to the implied probabilities by some market odds.

- (3) - The Olympiakos Soccer team and the Europa Conference League.
Overall the Model was not OK. Why? My main error was slow changes in some tune-ups after the Carvalhal/Mendilibar swapping. The leading generated pre-match probabilities before Olympiakos vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv 1:4 and Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Olympiakos 1:6, and also before Aston Villa vs. Olympiakos 2:4 were wrong despite excellent Model triggers for El Kaabi during the whole season.

Now I'm wholly focused on the ICC Men's T20 World Cup (and also on some other Cricket tournaments, such as Vitality Blast & Charlotte Edwards Cup Ladies). Along with building the PSL 2024 and IPL 2024 Models on the fly during these tournaments during the interval (February - May 2024), I began my preparations for the T20 World Cup by re-watching dozens and dozens and dozens and dozens of past and present matches of the T20 World Cup participants, processing my impressions of what saw, building endless data sheets and appropriate graphics. When my intensive and time-consuming activities to optimize the Model settings on the fly for the Cricket T20 World Cup are finished after June 29th, I plan to do the following when I have some free time:
- (2.1) Again re-testing the Panathinaikos vs Maccabi Tel Aviv PlayOff in much more depth. In fact, the pre-selected tune-ups helped me to forecast the most dangerous Rubicons in front of PAO that year #1 PAO vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv 87:91 and #3 Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PAO 85:83. However, I'd like to test some things if hypothetically PAO were under Oded Kattash during that remarkable PlayOff Series;
- I'm wondering exactly why Maccabi Tel Aviv is out of the main focus of those keen on the EuroLeague. In my opinion, that's one of the most underestimated teams nowadays for no reason, their Basketball production is very pleasant and additionally, I think Oded Kattash is among the most clever contemporary coaches. Those are among the signs of a hidden Favorite in lots of games. The million-dollar question is exactly which matches have the odds compilers underestimated Maccabi Tel Aviv as an entry and why? That's one of the most efficient examples of when the Kelly Criterion shows its power;
- The full re-building and testing of the Array mentioned as above, but with the additional elements: {1977 MACC TA, ..., 1980 MACC TA, ..., 1981 MACC TA, 1982 MACC TA, ..., 1987 MACC TA, 1988 MACC TA, 1989 MACC TA, ..., 2000 MACC TA, 2001 MACC TA, ..., 2004 MACC TA, 2005 MACC TA, 2006 MACC TA, ..., 2008 MACC TA, ..., 2011 MACC TA, ..., 2014 MACC TA};
- Quite a few additional ideas are waiting to be developed and experimented with if I've got enough time for them in the future.

In his book, the "Clash of Civilizations" Samuel P. Huntington argued that many nations when getting closer to their peak of development are demonstrating this via sports and especially the Olympic games. That was true for Greece, that won the Euro 2004, made a record in Olympic medals, even destroyed the All Star USA national basketball team in Japan.
Today, most European nations are in a decadence.
Have a look at the UK, not being able to control who is getting in Wembley without tickets, even stopping a pyro show.
Have a look at Germany where police officers are attacking bystanders first before shooting at killers.
Have a look at France, not being able to confront Azerbaijan in her own territory.
Because of this massive decadence, in the years to come, we will notice smaller nations having unexpected wins and success in various sports in European level. Mark my words. It could start from the Euro 2024 in some days from now. It definitely pays to bet on teams no-one expects to win.

This is an excellent thread and thank you all guys for contributing your knowledge. It helped me start trading on basketball, Euroleague and NBA, now expanding in national championships. Results are promising, hoping this trend continues.

B_arber wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2024 3:26 pm

This is an excellent thread and thank you all guys for contributing your knowledge. It helped me start trading on basketball, Euroleague and NBA, now expanding in national championships. Results are promising, hoping this trend continues.

@ B_arber,
Sorry for my late reply as I'm extremely busy these days,

I'm glad to see a Forum User who believes in the values ​​of the old Internet Forum Communities (which have almost disappeared lately): let's contribute and share different points of view aimed at the development of all Forum Members. I'm afraid the quality of Forums around the World is going down. That's why your posting is very important here in terms of sharing ideas.
Wish you a stroke of good luck, aiming for profits in the lovely Basketball markets!

By the way, I've got a request for you:
Please share some useful points of view here in this thread from time to time if possible. Naturally, no one is going to ask you to reveal in detail your market approaches and your personal invented know-how and jeopardize your business.
Thanks.

B_arber wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2024 3:26 pm

This is an excellent thread and thank you all guys for contributing your knowledge. It helped me start trading on basketball, Euroleague and NBA, now expanding in national championships. Results are promising, hoping this trend continues.

Congrats for these developments. I have 2 comments.
1st. This thread is not only about basketball trading, but it is a much broader one. And I am sure the intention of the OP was a broad one.
2nd. I would focus on fields that I know very well, and I would avoid trading in more than 2-3 well known championships.

It is my solid believe that the basketball Olympic tournament will be a major event. It is not only because of the USA Dream Team, it is also because of the competition of 10 teams racing for 3 medals.
Other than that, the USA Dream Team has (IMO) some members that were dictated by sponsors.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 11, 2024 2:03 pm

It is my solid believe that the basketball Olympic tournament will be a major event. It is not only because of the USA Dream Team, it is also because of the competition of 10 teams racing for 3 medals.
Other than that, the USA Dream Team has (IMO) some members that were dictated by sponsors.

A very valid assumption on your part. Also, I think it's not just the hidden corporate dictate to include some members, but also the big failure of the USA in the 2023 World Cup that has an impact.

First, I should note that lately, I have had almost no free time to quality model the wonderful game of Basketball, except for the 2023/24 Finals in the Hellenic GBL A1 (PAO & OLY), the Philippine Cup (the strangely seeded by the odds compilers as an "underdog" team of Meralco Bolts who pretty logically won the Trophy against all odds offered by the major agencies), Euroleague Basketball (Final Four) and some pre-selected NBA games, due to my engagement in modeling activities in a very different kind of Sport.
That's why maybe I'm a little bit outdated for some contemporary Basketball highlights. I guess the game-changing dynamic in that business is much higher than the Modelers want…

The purpose of that posting:

I spotted that the players for the USA team, selected for the Olympics 2024 are probably Dream Team 2 (in case you remember the USA Dream Team 1 in the Barcelona Olympics 1992). So I think it's worth pre-calculating some real odds vs offered ones in the Olympics 2024's group USA, Serbia, South Sudan & Puerto Rico and why not at the further stage.

Yesterday South Sudan deserved to win against the disoriented USA, but 8 seconds before the final buzzer, LeBron somehow snatched the win away, 101:100 after a deficit of 44:58 at half-time. But that was a friendly game. The million-dollar question is this: was this play a wrong move / relaxed training session by Steve Kerr, or most likely a misleading move vs the future opponents, and if so, exactly what components of the game should we look at to better calculate Olympic odds next days?


Serbia vs USA is on July 28th.

Aleksa Avramović, Nikola Jović, Nikola Jokić, Vasilije Micić, Bogdan Bogdanović, Filip Petrušev and so on under Svetislav Pešić vs Steve Kerr's selection: Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Joel Embiid and co.

OMG, what a show would be that!

For a moment I remembered the 1992 Olympics, Michael Jordan vs. Dražen Petrović, USA vs. Croatia in the preliminary group, and also later in the Grand Final…

I also remember Dream Team 1 of the 1992 Olympics.
South Sudan? Really?
Waiting for tomorrow’s friendly Serbia v Greece.