Arbusers

UEFA Conference League,
Fiorentina vs. Puskás Akadémia, 0:2 in no time,
The Asian Handicap value of some agencies is slowly disappearing at the moment.
Anyone modeling that event on the fly?

arb12 wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 22, 2024 6:27 pm

UEFA Conference League,
Fiorentina vs. Puskás Akadémia, 0:2 in no time,
The Asian Handicap value of some agencies is slowly disappearing at the moment.
Anyone modeling that event on the fly?

Addendum:
The second half in Firenze has started,
In my opinion, it is possible to inject additional relatively huge sums (compared to those distributed in the appropriate markets after the announced starting lineups), based on the analysis of what was spotted on the pitch in the first half, and also on the reasonable assumption of exactly what would be the most probable projected interactions by the four Hungarian team's defenders vs. Fiorentina's leading three offensive players, and on the other side of the forecasted impact of Fiorentina's substitutions...

By the way, I'm very impressed with the first Hungarian substitution, a striker replaces a defender from what I noticed.

Chinese Super League, a few minutes ago ChangChun Yatai vs Shanghai Port made a spectacular 3:4 and after the very first substitution plus the initial goal in the second half occurred at very specific current match circumstances and that's why I remembered the famous Serie A clash Atalanta vs Torino 3:3 a few years ago. Torino missed big chances to win after a great comeback from 3:0 to Atalanta halfway through the first half to 3:3 at the end of regular time... Bonazzoli and Verdi missed to make it 3:4 in stoppage time as I recall. That's why the AH market position was refunded after the game...

But the initial dynamic circumstances of the second half in China today (substitution and a fast goal) implied some probabilities at a very acceptable risk level for a specific Asian Handicap line plus the mystic number of seven goals to be scored, remembering what happened in Bergamo some years ago.
Today that Model worked successfully, i.e. probabilistic assumptions were OK, unlike 2021's match Atalanta vs Torino Calcio.

The main idea of ​​that posting - history is cyclical, so when someone misses a particular market opportunity in the past and when fundamental analysis points out some similarities with the current event, there is another chance. Naturally, the use again past positions of your Model should be accurately tuned up according to the specific circumstances on the pitch today, plus the calculation of the probability interval at acceptable risk, aiming for success in the very long run, combining plenty of appropriate markets during the long journey.

ATP HangZhou,

It's an exceptional pleasure to observe the tactical behavior on the pitch and try to build various probabilities about well-known old foxes such as Marin Čilić. Why? On the one hand, tons of Stats have been gathered over the years and everyone may use them in their own Model. Despite the odds compilers also have those data, you could interpret and process it in your Model in a different way.

On the other hand, both the personal impressions of their past games and also the most recent on-the-pitch performance have given the observers a very true overall view, and therefore the pre-modelled market attacks vs the published odds are OK on some occasions, pointed out by the triggers.

My recommendations, if I may.
It's much better not to participate in the ATP HangZhou final Zhang vs Čilić. I'm still guessing exactly why Pinnacle and some others are late with the odds.
In my view, it's much more valuable to prepare appropriate tune-ups for the ATP Tokyo opener Čilić vs Nishikori.
Among the custom processing in the Model are:
- Nishikori vs Tsitsipas' analysis in Montreal (August);
- Probability estimation based on recent observations of exactly when Nishikori moves into "The Zone" and when he loses interest. That's why I think some Stats regarding Nishikori's recent matches are unreliable;
- The different approaches of both former ATP Top 5 Čilić and Nishikori to managing their recovery from the crisis;
- I think Čilić's management in his last games is very similar to Adrián Menéndez-Maceiras' one at his age;
- In the most important games, unlike other games, Čilić tends to maintain very close intervals of (X...Y) percentages about some observed variables, for example: 1st Srv Pts Won, 2nd Srv Pts Won, Brk Pts Saved, and others, but let's say dozens of other observed variables are described by very different dependencies, and so on;
- The composition and the trends of those variables on earlier stages R1 and similar are different;
- And so on, and so forth ...

I'd love to read your points of view, especially if anyone is modeling that ATP game in Tokyo.

Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum'48 right now,

The live Model alerted me to a few things:
- See the similarities between the defenses of Borussia and Bayer'04;
- See the similarities today vs Bochum'48 and Borussia vs Mainz'05 (May 2023);
- More and more variables stabilize in the first half and now in the second;
- Look at the contemporary organizational skills of the Borussia midfield in terms of powering the attacking department. Compare these with Bayer'04 Midfield/Attack;
- Re-evaluation very quick after the first half today (Borussia vs Bochum);
- Think again of the Achilles heel of Borussia today (the Defensive Dept) and re-estimate again;
- The most probable moves by Sahin / Zeidler according to your observations so far;
- The initial and final re-evaluation after the first half of all of the above in your live Model;
- Will Borussia achieve something similar to what they did against Mainz'05 in 2023? Or will it resurrect like Bayer'04 vs Wolfsburg a few days ago? Again detailed Midfield/Attack comparison, as stated above;
- I will keep a close eye on Borussia's Defensive department after the 60th minute today. This will generate stability for whatever the outcome ultimately is; Ryerson, and Schlotterbeck are not pretty well today, and Emre Can can't cover all the errors;

Any Modelers here?

Ironically, a minute after my opinion was published, Borussia were awarded a penalty...

You`re on to something here, if you can spot value in-play, you should take positions accordingly to exploit your knowledge.

arb12 wrote: Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum'48 right now,

The live Model alerted me to a few things:
- See the similarities between the defenses of Borussia and Bayer'04;
- See the similarities today vs Bochum'48 and Borussia vs Mainz'05 (May 2023);
- More and more variables stabilize in the first half and now in the second;
- Look at the contemporary organizational skills of the Borussia midfield in terms of powering the attacking department. Compare these with Bayer'04 Midfield/Attack;
- Re-evaluation very quick after the first half today (Borussia vs Bochum);
- Think again of the Achilles heel of Borussia today (the Defensive Dept) and re-estimate again;
- The most probable moves by Sahin / Zeidler according to your observations so far;
- The initial and final re-evaluation after the first half of all of the above in your live Model;
- Will Borussia achieve something similar to what they did against Mainz'05 in 2023? Or will it resurrect like Bayer'04 vs Wolfsburg a few days ago? Again detailed Midfield/Attack comparison, as stated above;
- I will keep a close eye on Borussia's Defensive department after the 60th minute today. This will generate stability for whatever the outcome ultimately is; Ryerson, and Schlotterbeck are not pretty well today, and Emre Can can't cover all the errors;

Any Modelers here?

3virgul14 wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 28, 2024 10:14 am

You`re on to something here, if you can spot value in-play, you should take positions accordingly to exploit your knowledge.

arb12 wrote: Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum'48 right now,

The live Model alerted me to a few things:
- See the similarities between the defenses of Borussia and Bayer'04;
- See the similarities today vs Bochum'48 and Borussia vs Mainz'05 (May 2023);
- More and more variables stabilize in the first half and now in the second;
- Look at the contemporary organizational skills of the Borussia midfield in terms of powering the attacking department. Compare these with Bayer'04 Midfield/Attack;
- Re-evaluation very quick after the first half today (Borussia vs Bochum);
- Think again of the Achilles heel of Borussia today (the Defensive Dept) and re-estimate again;
- The most probable moves by Sahin / Zeidler according to your observations so far;
- The initial and final re-evaluation after the first half of all of the above in your live Model;
- Will Borussia achieve something similar to what they did against Mainz'05 in 2023? Or will it resurrect like Bayer'04 vs Wolfsburg a few days ago? Again detailed Midfield/Attack comparison, as stated above;
- I will keep a close eye on Borussia's Defensive department after the 60th minute today. This will generate stability for whatever the outcome ultimately is; Ryerson, and Schlotterbeck are not pretty well today, and Emre Can can't cover all the errors;

Any Modelers here?

@ 3virgul14,
I've been doing this for years in a couple of kinds of Sports, but I also believe in the old values ​​of the Forums as a place to exchange some ideas.
I'd love to read your opinions on sporting events and all together make productive discussions and exchanges of points of view here on the Forum, helping each other, and of course, you should not reveal your exact recipe for long-term success. You should share only minority non-core hints in order to protect your current work and what you've invented so far. I'm pretty sure bookies also read here.

Absolutely, agreed .

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 28, 2024 11:16 am

3virgul14 wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 28, 2024 10:14 am

You`re on to something here, if you can spot value in-play, you should take positions accordingly to exploit your knowledge.

arb12 wrote: Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum'48 right now,

The live Model alerted me to a few things:
- See the similarities between the defenses of Borussia and Bayer'04;
- See the similarities today vs Bochum'48 and Borussia vs Mainz'05 (May 2023);
- More and more variables stabilize in the first half and now in the second;
- Look at the contemporary organizational skills of the Borussia midfield in terms of powering the attacking department. Compare these with Bayer'04 Midfield/Attack;
- Re-evaluation very quick after the first half today (Borussia vs Bochum);
- Think again of the Achilles heel of Borussia today (the Defensive Dept) and re-estimate again;
- The most probable moves by Sahin / Zeidler according to your observations so far;
- The initial and final re-evaluation after the first half of all of the above in your live Model;
- Will Borussia achieve something similar to what they did against Mainz'05 in 2023? Or will it resurrect like Bayer'04 vs Wolfsburg a few days ago? Again detailed Midfield/Attack comparison, as stated above;
- I will keep a close eye on Borussia's Defensive department after the 60th minute today. This will generate stability for whatever the outcome ultimately is; Ryerson, and Schlotterbeck are not pretty well today, and Emre Can can't cover all the errors;

Any Modelers here?

@ 3virgul14,
I've been doing this for years in a couple of kinds of Sports, but I also believe in the old values ​​of the Forums as a place to exchange some ideas.
I'd love to read your opinions on sporting events and all together make productive discussions and exchanges of points of view here on the Forum, helping each other, and of course, you should not reveal your exact recipe for long-term success. You should share only minority non-core hints in order to protect your current work and what you've invented so far. I'm pretty sure bookies also read here.

FCSB (Steaua București) vs Gloria Buzău in progress right now,

I'm amazed that today's organizational errors have similarities with FCSB's ones under Nicolae Dică, so I think there are a few minutes after the break-time to reassess exactly what happened today in the first half and tune-up more precise the specific proven triggers similar to those regarding FCSB in the fall of 2022.

What a weird match today it is, considering exactly how Steaua came alive against PAOK a few days ago in Thessaloniki...